A new Gulf century begins for Saudi Arabia and Iran

As tensions continue to reshape the Gulf region, analysts believe 2026 could mark the beginning of a new geopolitical era

As tensions continue to reshape the Gulf region, analysts believe 2026 could mark the beginning of a new geopolitical era for the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia and Iran emerging as the two principal powers influencing the future of the Gulf.

The year carries symbolic importance as it marks a century since the political foundations of modern Saudi Arabia and modern Iran were laid in 1926 through the rise of King Abdulaziz in the Arabian Peninsula and the establishment of the Pahlavi monarchy in Iran.

Observers argue that both countries have accumulated a century of experience in diplomacy, conflict management and regional politics, placing them in a position to define the next phase of Gulf affairs.

One of the major lessons of the past century, according to regional analysts, is that long-term stability in the Gulf depends largely on cooperation among the countries of the region rather than reliance on external powers.

Saudi Arabia’s modern state emerged under King Abdulaziz, who unified various regions and established the Kingdom in 1932. Despite limited resources during its early years, the country gradually transformed into one of the world’s leading energy producers and regional powers.

Saudi leaders largely sought to shield the country from direct involvement in major international conflicts while maintaining strategic partnerships with global powers, particularly the United States.

Over the decades, however, changing international politics and evolving security arrangements prompted Saudi Arabia to diversify its diplomatic and economic relationships beyond its traditional alliances.

Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Kingdom accelerated efforts to reduce dependence on oil revenues, expand international partnerships and pursue a more balanced foreign policy that includes engagement with regional and global powers alike.

Recent regional developments have reinforced Riyadh’s emphasis on strategic autonomy and regional diplomacy, particularly in its approach towards Iran and broader Middle Eastern security issues.

Pakistan has also gained a more prominent role in Gulf security discussions due to its longstanding defence cooperation with Saudi Arabia and its close ties with several regional states.

On the Iranian side, modern Iran entered a new political phase in 1926 with the rise of the Pahlavi dynasty. Despite possessing vast natural resources, particularly oil, Iran spent much of the twentieth century navigating foreign influence and domestic political transformation.

The nationalisation of Iran’s oil industry in the early 1950s became a defining moment in the country’s modern history and significantly shaped Tehran’s relations with Western powers for decades to come.

The Islamic Revolution of 1979 transformed Iran’s political system and foreign policy orientation, leading to prolonged tensions with the United States and many of its allies.

Years of sanctions, regional conflicts and international isolation forced Iran to adapt economically and politically while maintaining influence across various parts of the Middle East.

Regional economies, particularly in the Gulf, also adjusted to these realities as trade and financial networks evolved around sanctions and shifting geopolitical conditions.

Analysts believe the coming years could offer an opportunity for Saudi Arabia and Iran to build on recent diplomatic progress and reduce tensions that have affected regional stability for decades.

Many experts argue that sustainable peace in the Gulf will depend on cooperation between Riyadh and Tehran and on a greater role for regional states in addressing their own security concerns.

As the Gulf enters its second century as a modern geopolitical region, the direction chosen by its two largest powers may shape the future of the Middle East for generations to come.