The Pakistani political system is highly unreliable. One day you are in power, the next day you might not. A game of musical chairs is underway in the country. Yesterday morning was a routine day as usual. We were getting used to Shehbaz Sharif being referred to as Prime Minister instead of Imran Khan.
Out of nowhere, this verdict on Article 63A was announced. Disgruntled members cannot vote against PTI’s policy which means if not the national assembly, the Punjab assembly is definitely in trouble. In the national assembly, Shehbaz Sharif had a majority minus the disgruntled members, but his son is not so lucky. After this verdict, it might be hard for Hamza Shehbaz to remain the chief minister as he had no sharp majority without disgruntled members of the Punjab Assembly. (But he might secure a majority in the re-election. Who knows).
One day you think you are stable, the other day there might be a development that turns the table. In Pakistan, when tables are turned, it means, you might be jailed and your assets would be frozen. No one has this safety in Pakistan. A few months back, PTI was in power, so things were tough for PPP and PML-N members.
There were cases against the opposition members. Many of them were arrested. Many of them were jailed. Many were unable to travel due to the stop list and exit control lists. The house of the wife of former finance minister Ishaq Dar was converted into a shelter home despite the stay order by the court.
Then the tables turned when Shehbaz Sharif became the new Prime Minister, and instead of members of PML-N, things were getting tough for PTI aides. They were added to the ECL using the same institutions. Their cases were open, and files were revisited. Farah Gogi had to fly from the country immediately.
And now after this verdict by the Supreme Court, the power dynamic has been changed again. Shehbaz Sharif already had limited power in the assembly, and now if he loses Punjab, his authority will touch a new low.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was already having a hard time running the country due to his dependence on allies. Now, if he loses hold in Punjab, it will be very difficult for him to continue.
Currently, an opponent president is already giving him a very hard time by delaying his summaries. Now if he loses government in Punjab, there will be a whole province that will be refusing his orders and getting on his nerves for real. He is likely to lose his grip on many institutions like NAB, FIA and Punjab Police.
You cannot run a country when you don’t have much range of authority. How can someone run a university department when most faculty members will delay their orders along with an administration that will cause hindrance in the functioning? You cannot even run a small department when people do not cooperate with you, let alone run the country.
Regarding the CM, there will be no major clash between Pervez Elahi and Usman Buzdar as it was evident that Usman Buzdar had already accepted Pervez Elahi as his replacement. PTI will be more powerful and loud amid this development, and PML-N will be humiliated.
If Shehbaz Sharif loses Punjab, he should pack up, leave the country and return the mess to the people who originally created it. It would be foolish to force yourself on a system where actors are bound to oppose and hinder every decision you take.