During the by-poll campaigns, I hardly heard people talk about inflation, loadshedding, sweltering heat, congested roads, and so on.
People would ask me in social interactions about the expected results. I would ask them to wait for my endorsement column.
Despite knowing about the popular sentiments, which were all in the favour of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) candidates, I made a guarded criterion for my favourite candidates. Out of the 20 seats, my 10 favourite candidates belonged to the PTI and another to the rival Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). At the end of the sensational Sunday, I counted the list of emerging winners and found most of my favoured people had carried the day.
By and large, the July 17 poll was carried by the PTI with a landslide win – 15 out of 20 provincial assembly seats.
These elections were not usual elections as their winners would decide the chief minister of Punjab. Both parties did fierce electioneering during the pre-polling days, which resulted in an over 50 percent turnout – a record by-poll turnout in Pakistan’s electoral history.
As the polling station by polling station results started trickling in, I started evaluating the reason behind the debacle for the PML-N, which traditionally has been ruling the province for decades.
The vital question is: why did the PML-N lose its stronghold?
Well, a short answer is the overconfidence of the PML-N leadership.
The party fielded the candidates, less desirable to the PML-N vote base, and instead gave tickets to those who had a tag of ‘lota’ with them. The leadership did not make serious efforts to woo the disgruntled notables in the constituencies and even did not reach out to those who challenged the PML-N candidates by contesting against them. In Muzaffargarh’s PP-272, the PML-N candidate of the 2018 elections was in the run as an independent candidate. I learned that he was ready to withdraw his candidature if the senior party leadership approached him. Neither the party reached him, nor the previous ticket holder stepped back, and the ultimate loser was the PML-N candidate.
This is one of the factors among varying perspectives and narratives, which wrote the by-poll history.
The other defining factor is ‘neutrals’ neutrality.
Both winners and runners-up agree to the point that “they remained neutral”. Hopefully, the situation would prevail in the coming days as well. PTI Chairman Imran Khan, however, kept charging top government officials of the Punjab government as well as the chief election commissioner of influencing the elections. He, however, chose not to put up some credible reports or instances to establish his allegations.
I am waiting for the reports of independent bodies – both national and international – which monitored the polls closely and remotely. My own sources say that the government officials’ involvement in petty matters in favour of ruling party candidates cannot be ruled out, there was no organized, mass-level rigging scheme to steal the elections. So far, no such allegations have been reported from the PTI candidates who lost elections.
The most important factor, however, which shaped the current political scenario and history is – Imran Khan.
He is the vital factor that led the PTI to snatch a landslide success. Imran Khan fearlessly spoke on the rising inflation. He spoke on the energy crisis. He informed the voters about the imbalanced structural adjustment created by the incumbent government. He criticized the flawed deal with the International Monetary Fund. Imran Khan stood as a lone fighter against the traditional establishment and international establishment.
Now, when the election is over and the number count is in favour of the PTI’s candidate for the chief minister slot, Parvez Elahi, it is appropriate that Hamza Shehbaz realizes that he is no longer the chief minister of Punjab. He should resign before the voting ousts him.
