Let sanity prevail

Former army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa seems to have been in hot water for more than a year now. Off and on a torrent of criticism is unleashed against the former army chief for various reasons. Some of these reasons are valid and others could be described as unjustified. Critics are not the only ones tormented by the former chief but those who benefited from his position in power are also lambasting the retired general.

Perhaps he is the first general of the country who is not only being censured by those who were deprived of political power because of his alleged machinations but those who were voted into power owing to his blessings are also coming hard on the maverick general. Pakistan Muslim League N accused him of manipulating 2018 elections besides pampering the government of former prime minister Imran Khan while the great Khan is reviling him for allegedly orchestrating his ouster from power. The PTI chief now seems to be scapegoating Bajwa for everything that went wrong during his stint in power. His assertions create an impression that the former army general was running everything from NAB to economy during the time of the Kaptaan.

Most of the criticism directed against Bajwa is justified because no general should be allowed to carry out political manipulations. The constitution is very clear about the responsibilities and duties of the armed forces. The founder of the nation Muhammad Ali Jinnah had also categorically stated that the affairs of government could only be run by elected representatives or politicians of the Islamic state. Some of Bajwa’s statements indicate that the former general did transgress, indulging in matters that were not constitutionally under his domain.

But on strategic matters his assessment may not be irrational or illogical. His comments over a possible war with India reflects the reality of modern warfare. It is very unfortunate that some elements are trying to lambast the general for suggesting that Pakistan should avoid fighting India as it might not be good not only for the country and region but for the world as well. Bajwa is believed to have made such comments while meeting journalists before his retirement.

The comments seem to have created a storm on social media with some elements resorting to the rhetoric of war mongering. The first question related to this statement of Bajwa is: if the comments had been made during an off the record meeting between the former army chief and media persons, then they should have never been made public. The second question is: Is he really wrong? Naturally no army chief would say that Pakistan is not ready to fight the arch enemy. Pakistan’s defense policy is India-centric and the country always remains fully prepared to counter any possible misadventure by New Delhi. The arrest of Indian pilot Abhinandan reflects such preparedness.

The details of Bajwa’s revelations are murky and he might have referred to the fact that modern warfare is not all about weapons and the will to fight only but a country needs to have a very strong economy if it really wants to see success on strategic fronts.

Bajwa is not the first army chief who has pointed out an important link between military success and economic strength. In the aftermath of the tragic incident in Gayari sector, the former army chief Ashfaq Pervaiz Kiyani made more or less the same point, implying that the protection of a country does not lie in accumulating weapons and military hard wares only but that the security of a country can be ensured by extending basic amenities of life to the people of a country and taking care of their needs.

It is not difficult to prove the reality of such a statement. The USSR had tens of thousands of nuclear arsenals. Its army used to be the biggest conventional army in the world. Its space technology was unmatched. The red army helped left wing parties bring about revolutions in Central and Eastern Europe besides throwing support behind various workers’ parties or governments in other parts of the world. Its GDP spending on defense was one of the highest or according to some estimates the highest for decades. But despite all these military successes, the largest country on the earth suffered a catastrophic disintegration without any foreign attack because of the crippling economy that had forced people to make long queues for the sake of a few essential commodities.

Perhaps the demise of the Soviet Union compelled China to make hectic efforts for achieving economic strength. Unlike the USSR, which pumped billions of dollars into the advancement of military hard wares, Beijing focused on consumer goods production and rapid industrialization instead of wasting money on the non productive sector of the economy. Today it is not the Chinese army that is the source of concern for the United States and its western allies but the Chinese companies that have unnerved western policy makers. The second biggest economy is not ascendant today because of its military might but owing to the market capitalization of its companies that run into trillions of dollars and its stunning foreign exchange reserves. The socialist country’s companies are dominating in almost all consumer products and services from bullet trains to mobiles and solar panels to electric cars.

The lesson of history for Pakistan lies in learning from the Chinese and other countries’ experience that focused on economy instead of retching up tensions with neighbours. It is unfortunate that some elements are trying to exploit the masses on this issue. Pakistan cannot win a conventional war against India. Even a man with a modicum of common sense can get this point. In conventional warfare it is numerical strength that matters. Before these elements lambast Bajwa for advocating not to have a war with India, they need to understand the numerical military strength of the two countries.

According to Global Fire Power, which tracks the military strength of states, India is equipped with 4614 tanks, 100,822 vehicles, 100 self-propelled artillery, 3311 towed artillery and 1500 rocket artillery. The number of its aircraft is 2210 while its total military personnel are 5132000 (1450000 active, 1155000 reserve and 2527000 paramilitary troops).  Its air force personnel’s number is 310575, army 2197117 and Navy 142252. With over $4 trillion foreign exchange and gold reserves, its defense budget is one of the highest in the world with over $54 billion annually.

With a cool head, we need to compare it with Pakistan’s military strength and economic situation. With a total military personnel of 1704,000 (654,000 active, 550,000 reserves and 500,000 para military), Pakistan has 80,000 servicemen in the air force, 1301500 army and 54,100 navy. The Islamic Republic has 3742 tanks, 77771 vehicles, 1225 self-propelled artillery, 3345 towed artillery, 1838 rocket artillery and 1413 aircrafts. Our foreign exchange and gold reserves are a meagre $18 billion while our defense budget is just over $7 billion. The country has an unbearable foreign debt of $110 billion.

Keeping this economic situation in mind, one should remember that the price of just one JF Thunder is $25 million per unit and that of F16 $3 million. One nuclear powered attack submarine may be costly as $3 billion. Given this all, any conflict would be catastrophic for Pakistan and India. Therefore, it is time that we talked about peace and co-existence. Politicians and the establishment are eager to normalize ties with Pakistan’s arch rival that could offer Islamabad excellent economic dividends. Bajwa’s thinking seems to reflect sanity and such logic should not be rejected in a rhetorical way.