The Ukraine War which was launched by Russia, with a big-bang, on 24 February, 2022 have stalemated after some meaningful activity in the beginning during which Moscow captured nearly a fifth of Ukraine. The anti-Russia alliance mainly composed of western nations is still intact under the leadership of the US with full energy. Washington claims that one year on, ‘the commitment and fervor of some 50 countries alliance has only strengthened’. Military aspects apart, the west has mostly concentrated on crippling Russia and intensifying Ukraine economically. On the one hand, as many as 10 rounds of sanctions have been imposed on Russia; and on the other an aid valuing $ 150 billion have been provided to Ukraine, as per Kiel Institute of Germany, reputed to be an authentic source. However, up till now the Russian economy has shown resilience though indications of growing uneasiness are noticeable. The Swedish Presidency of European Union has highlighted that the 10th Round of sanctions, considered to be ‘the most forceful and far-reaching’ has the potential ‘to help Ukraine win the war’. Particularly, cutting-out Russian gas and oil is crucially significant although visa restrictions and additional tariffs hitting Russia’s mining and mineral industries will also be harmful. It is noticeable that new measures have been designed to ‘disrupt’ the working of Russia’s financial institutions: certainly an intelligent move. Economic observers view that the West’s anti Russia measures are likely to injure Russia more during the second year of the war as ‘the sanctions work but they work slowly’. It will not be fair to overlook the role of Ukraine’s smaller neighbors like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland who have furnished considerable moral and material support to Ukraine to sustain against Russia. There must be some valid reasons before President Volodymyr Zelenski to declare 2023 as the ‘year of Ukraine’s victory’. The Ukrainian President claimed that during last one year, ‘we have shown to the world that ‘how strong Ukrainians are mentally, physically and spiritually’. His ‘message of hope’ was received with enthusiasm throughout the Ukrainian cities, which reflected the general public’s state of mind; a worry-some matter for Russia.
The war has certainly gelled European nations with each-other under the American superintendence, however it is far from being a ‘global coalition’ as claimed by Washington. Rather, it has exposed the US fast-eroding ability to influence other countries, an indication of ‘rapidly shifting world order’. The US efforts to isolate Russia have not borne fruit and the non-cooperation is not limited to Chia and Iran only regarding whom the westerners were inwardly prepared. India, a declared strategic partner of the US is not abiding by several important parts of the sanctions despite repeated insistence of Washington. Despite its discomfort with the Moscow’s adventure, New Delhi has adopted a neutral posture. It has preferred to abstain from the UN Security Council, General Assembly, and Human Rights Council that condemned the Russian aggression. India’s ‘subtle pro-Moscow position’ has not only disappointed the US strategists; it has also raised questions regarding the ‘over-projected’ unanimity of ideas on the world issues. Ashley J. Tellis of ‘CARNEGIE Endowment For International Peace’ has commented that India’s position seems ‘incongruous’ because on the one side ‘it stands shoulder to shoulder with the US in opposing Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific’ and on the other, ‘it appears tolerant of the vastly more egregious Russian belligerence in Europe’.
Discussion on Ukraine war requires a special mention of China’s approach on the issue. During the last one year, China has not clearly sided with Russia, as was expected by the Russian geo-political masterminds and it has repeatedly stressed for reverting to peace. The US has very successfully been able to keep it away from the conflict through economic and diplomatic tactics. President Joe Bi den has publically admitted that as yet there is no evidence of Chinese support for Russia nonetheless he also warned of ‘economic ramifications’ in case of such-like occurrence. The relevant US office-holders have consistently reminded that ‘the future of China rests on investment from the Western world’. Simultaneously, the occidental intelligence networks have signaled that China may consider providing Russia various categories of weaponry, particularly drones and ammunition. A peace plan was also proposed by China which was out-rightly rejected by President Joe Biden with the remarks that ‘it could be beneficial for Russia only. China has also issued a 12-point paper urging an end to sanctions that aim to squeeze Russia’s economy. The upcoming visit of President Xi Jinxing to Moscow will determine Beijing’s further course of action. Any change in Chinese policy can shift the balance of lingering-on war considerably in favor of Moscow’s at the cost of Washington.
The effects of Ukrainian War have been ruinous in multiple ways. According to the ‘Global Data’s report dated 23 February, Russia has sustained around 175-200,000 casualties (both dead and seriously injured), while Ukraine is considered to have at least 100,000. Myth of Russia’s military might has been undermined as it failed to seize Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, despite number of desperate attempts. Nonetheless, these efforts have damaged Ukrainian physical infrastructure valuing $138 billion out of which $54 billion exclusively relates to housing sector. In result of it, nearly five million have been displaced and it is reported to be the largest number of homeless people in Europe since the World War-II. Russians have not spared even the health facilities in clear violation of International Law and air-attacked 707 ambulances, first-aid centers and pharmacies apart from seriously damaging 10 full-fledge hospitals and killing or injuring around 200 medical workers. An unrecorded number of Russians and approximately 8 million Ukrainians have fled from their countries however for different reasons: Ukrainians to distance from military activity and Russians to avoid conscription. This trend has caused a ‘refugee crises in the nearby countries particularly in Poland and Germany. The world, as a whole, suffered from a different
There have been international ramifications of the War; as well. Both Russia and Ukraine are prime suppliers of wheat, corn, barley and cooking-oil to the world, especially to Africa and Middle East; however the war made the export difficult despite Turkey-brokered deal. Similarly, disruption in supply-chain caused shortages of these commodities and price-hikes in various parts of the world. Europe’s discontinuation of oil, gas and diesel import from Russia; one of the largest producers of the said materials caused steep price-increase around the globe. The war has also spurred a process towards enlarging NATO i.e. Finland and Sweden are impatient to join the military alliance after decades of official neutrality. A trend of realignment is also visible as the countries feel compelled to take sides. Turkey’s case is conspicuous in this regard: despite being a NATO member, it has multiplied trade with Russia after the eruption of war and is forcefully objecting the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO.
The last word: nobody knows which way the wind will blow. One can plan the start of war but not its end.
