Pakistan’s inflation predicted to hit another peak at 38% in April

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According to a study released on Friday by the brokerage Ismail Iqbal Securities, Pakistan’s inflation rate is predicted to hit 38% year-over-year (YoY) in April, up from the 35.4% reported in March, setting yet another record.

After rising by 3.7% in March, inflation is predicted to be 3.6% month over month (MoM).

The increase, according to the brokerage company “is primarily attributable to higher wheat prices, clothing prices, and quarterly house rent revision.”

Core inflation is also anticipated to stay at roughly 2.5% MoM, the statement continued, reflecting the impact of supply chain problems, the depreciation of the PKR, and the ripple effects of higher energy costs.

The next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is presently planned for June 12, 2023.

Another rate increase is possible given the ongoing inflationary pressures and the lack of an IMF programme. Another early MPC meeting may be considered by the SBP, it was said.

Inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 35.4% on an annual basis in March 2023, up from a rise of 31.5% the month before and 12.7% in March 2022.

In a memorandum from July 1965, Arif Habib Limited (AHL) said, “This is the largest year-over-year inflation since the available statistics, i.e., since that month.