President Pervez Musharraf — an assessment

General Pervez Musharraf; the fourth military ruler of Pakistan (12.10.1999-18.08.2008) died on 5 February, 2023in the American Hospital, Dubai after an unusually prolonged illness at the age of 80 being born on 11 August, 1943. The General had risen to prominence on 7 October, 1998 when Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif had appointed him Chief of Army Staff, out of blue, after the expulsion of General Jahangir Karamat on a very nominal disagreement. Nonetheless, during next one year i.e. 07.10.1998-12.10.199, the Prime Minister had developed differences with the new COAS as well, however this time on a very serious note i.e. Kargil crisis. The military take-over of 12 0ctober, 1999 was utterly unconstitutional but it was lent moral support by the arbitrariness of MNS particularly when the chief was out of country; and the indecency shown to get the orders implemented. The fact that it was not someone’s individual adventure rather an institutional reaction also provided a shield of credibility to the development. Still the question of legitimacy tolled upon the general’s mind which compelled him to perform efficiently in the spheres of economy, law and order and foreign policy. That is why the performance of Pervez Musharraf during the first three years out-shines that of the remaining tenure. Needless to say that 9/11 made all issues of constitutionality irrelevant giving way to new political realities: a situation which allowed the general to continue calling the shots till 2008 without any major hindrance.

The most noticeable event of General Musharraf’s earlier period was his endeavor to settle Kashmir dispute with India. Having experienced Kargil in the near-past he had come to the conclusion that until normalization of relations with India, Pakistan will not be in a position to focus on its public-oriented issues. Through his famous ‘four-point approach’ he tried hard during July 14-16, 2001 Summit in New Delhi  to arrive-at  some conclusion, however short of success the process was undermined by the extremist lobby of the ruling  Bharatia Janata Party (BJP). The shortsightedness of Hindu lobby squandered a golden opportunity to resolve Kashmir dispute which had been sapping the resources of Pakistan and India since long. President Musharraf, being the representative of Pakistan’s ‘deep state’, was probably the most suitable leader to take some decision in this context.

It will not be fair to ignore the strength of his nerves which General Pervez Musharraf demonstrated during the 2001-2002 India-Pakistan military stand-off, ignited by a terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament dated 13 December, 2001.  India alleged that the assault was carried-out by ISI-sponsored terrorist groups called ‘Lashkar-e-Taiba’ and ‘Jaish-e-Muhammad’ however it was denied by Pakistan. The eye-ball to eye-ball dead-heat continued for several months that could lead to nuclear war as well. Nevertheless President Pervez Musharraf refused to budge an inch despite the hostile international environment. Ultimately, the world pressure on both the sides particularly of the U.S. and the U.K. de-escalated the situation.

After 9/11, President Pervez Musharraf sided with US-led NATO forces in ‘War on Terror’ and provided them with land routes and air-bases; and detailed Pakistani troops to fight ‘al-Qaida’ and its affiliates in the north specifically in the FATA region. This policy certainly brought short-term monetary, military and political gains but in the long-run it ushered Pakistan into a long and devastating spell of ‘terrorism’. Here question arises that whether Pakistan was in a position to say ‘no’ to the U.S. in that peculiar setting? The answer is a big and bold ‘no’: who-so-ever were at the helm of affairs during those nerve-wrecking moments could not have turned-down the U.S. demands. Three points need to be kept in mind in this connection; (i) General Musharraf tried his best to make the Taliban regime of Afghanistan to realize the gravity of situation but they could not; (ii) The U.N. had sanctioned action against the masterminds and facilitators of 9/11; and last but not the least (iii) India was more than willing to furnish all types of NATO requirements provided Pakistan was also ‘cleared of terrorists’. Any wrong move by the decision-makers from Pakistan’s side would have turned the tide against it, with unimaginable consequences. The President himself survived two broad- day assassination attempts in November, 2003 and probably various unreported as well. The policy to support the West effected the President’s domestic political standing also. Though later Pakistan had to suffer considerably but the benefit certainly out-weighed the cost. Such gigantic decisions are taken while keeping in view the larger perspectives and not the narrower ones.

President Musharraf contributed to economic stability as well by avoiding quick fixes and taking tough decisions. His hand-picked Finance Minister and later Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz played key-role in it. The foreign debt stood at $39 billion in 1999 and its servicing sapped almost two-thirds of total annual revenue. All other indicators were equally alarming, however objective decision-making yielded dividends and situation improved considerably by the end of his tenure. Forex reserves increased from $ 991 million to $ 16.5 billion; poverty rate reduced from around 34% to 17% ; exports plus remittances multiplied; budget-deficit  decreased from 8% to 4% and the revenue receipts doubled from 302billion to 700 plus billion leading to an average growth rate around 5%. Some other positive indicators included: quite a reasonable fall in inflation rate; growth in investment rate up to 23% of GDP and enlargement in development budget up to 40%. Nonetheless, it is mentionable that these positive developments were not only due to better economic management but billions of dollars received from the U.S. in return for Pakistan’s support in the ‘War on Terror’ also played significant role in the process.

President Pervez Musharraf always highlighted proudly his Local Government Scheme generally referred as ‘Devolution Plan’ however; it could not withstand the test of the time due to certain inherent flaws and its exploitation by the regime for political gains which compromised its utility. General Musharraf’s rule was also marred by multiple controversies, wide-spread human rights abuses and grave oppression. Persecution of his political opponents, particularly that of Sharif family, holding of a ridiculous referendum, making of King’s Party composed of turn-coats and ensuring their success through sham electoral exercise, arbitrarily disfiguring constitution for personal benefit and converting Prime Ministers into puppets are dark black spots on his tenure.  Finally, his unwise and unconstitutional action to dismiss the Chief Justice back-fired and an intense lawyer’s movement started suffocating him politically. Meanwhile, the question of his further election while retaining the military position also became controversial. Feeling caught-up in a quagmire, in November 2007, he declared a state of ’emergency plus’; suspended Pakistan’s constitution, replaced the CJ and blacked-out independent media outlets. He justified his proclamation by declaring it necessary to stabilize the country and combat intensifying Islamic extremism. These actions drew sharp criticism from within and without the country and nobody agreed to his arguments. The intense pressure, particularly from the occident, compelled him to hold elections in February, 2008, wherein his party fared badly. The rest was a formality: his adversaries initiated impeachment proceedings; however he resigned and left the country in 2008. In 2013, he returned to contest the elections, but was arrested on the charge of high-treason and later sentenced to death in absentia. He left for Dubai on Medical grounds and lived there up to his death last week.

The last word: despite his numerous successes on economic and diplomatic fronts, he is considered to have left behind a disheartening legacy—-defined in large part by human right abuses and the U.S.-led so-called ‘War on Terror’ which eventually brought scores of miseries for Pakistan.