In light of the current confrontation between Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the collation government, the upcoming by-elections for 20 seats in the Punjab assembly have taken on a great deal of significance following the Supreme Court’s ruling to move the second round of elections for Punjab chief minister to July 22. 186 is the magic number required to become the Punjab CM.
Political analysts anticipate a close race between the PML-N and PTI in the upcoming by-elections. It’s also imperative to note that 10 of the 20 MPAs who won the 2018 general elections ran as independent candidates before eventually joining the PTI thanks to the efforts of Jahangir Khan Tareen.
Voters who are sold on Imran Khan’s foreign conspiracy theory have been energised and driven by PTI. These individuals could give PML-N a hard time in urban-based constituencies. Thanks to local strong candidates like Jatoi’s in Muzaffargarh and Irfanullah Niazi former PM Imran Khan’s cousin in Bhakar PTI may have an advantage in a few constituencies. On the other hand, PMLN has awarded tickets to the returning candidates, these electable who joined PTI after wining 2018 GE elections have their own vote bank apart from any political affiliation It is exceptionally rare for a party in power to lose a by-election since the PML-N is the current ruling party. PMLN also enjoys the support of PPP and other PDM parties.
If we look into all of the by-elections held in Punjab from 2018 to 2021even when PTI was in power PMLN won 14 of the 29 seats from the provincial and national assembly while PTI won 10.
Here’s everything you need to know about these 20 constituencies
PP-7 Rawalpindi
In PP-7 Kalar Saeeda/Kahuta total registered votes are 335295. In this constituency, it will be PMLN’s Raja Sagheer Ahmed versus PTI’s Lt.Col. Shabir Awan. In GE 2008 Shabir Awan was elected MPA from pp-7 (old pp-2) on PPPP’s ticket by gaining 32816 votes In 2013 Raja Sagheer who contested the election as an independent candidate was runner up by taking 38706 votes while Shabir Awan gained 15868 votes as a PPPP’s candidate. In 2018 GE Raja Sagheer Ahmed won the election by taking 44286 votes as an independent candidate and later on joined PTI.
The constituency is part of NA-57 where PTI’s MNA Sadaqat Abbasi is MNA.
PP-83 Khushab
In PP-83 Khushab/Jauharabad Malik Ghulam Rasool Sangha won as an independent candidate and later joined PTI, after the disqualification by ECP PML-N allotted a ticket to Sangha’s brother Ameer Haider Sangha while PTI has given a ticket to Malik Hassan Aslam who is the younger brother of PTI MNA Malik Umar Aslam. Another strong independent candidate is PML-N’s candidate in 2018 and two-time former provincial minister Malik Asif Bha. It is pertinent to mention here that Asif Bha won three consecutive elections from this constituency PP-83(old pp-41) in 2002,2008 & 2013. According to the election commission, the total number of registered voters in PP-83 are 322428.
PP-90 Bhakkar
According to ECP the total registered voters in PP-90 Bhakkar is 248960. In PP-90 it will be PML-N Saeed Akbar Khan Nawani versus PTI’s Irfanullah Khan Niazi. In GE 2018 Saeed Akbar Khan got 59350 as an independent candidate while Irfan Ullah Niazi who contested on PML-N ticket got 44915 votes. Saeed Akbar khan has contested seven times from this constituency and has a strong vote bank, on the other hand, Irfan Ullah Niazi who was in PML-N until last month, PTI voters are unwilling to support the former PML- N leader.
Irfan Ullah Niazi is a cousin of former prime minister and PTI chairman Imran Khan
PP-97 Faisalabad
In PP-97 Faisalabad Ajmal Cheema won as an independent candidate and later joined PTI. In this constituency, it will be PML-N’s Ajmal Cheema versus PTI’s Ali Afzal Sahi. Another independent candidate Tariq Mehmood Bajwa who was elected as MNA IN 2008 on PPP’s ticket is also a strong candidate. In GE 2018 Cheema secured 42273 votes as an independent candidate while Ali Afzal Sahi was the runner up who secured 37932 votes. PML-N candidate Azad Ali Tabassum got 35298 votes.
Although Ajmal Cheema is contesting on PML-N ticket but PML-N worker is miffed that a politician with a history of switching political parties was given the ticket.
Ali Afzal Sahi is the son of former speaker Punjab Assembly Afzal who has won seven times from this constituency. Ali Afzal Sahi stands a good probability of winning the election for this reason alone. The total number of voters registered in PP-97 are 255884.
PP-125 Jhang
In GE 2018 Faisal Hayat Jabboana won the election by securing 50913 votes and later joined PTI. PMLN has allotted the ticket to returning candidate Faisal Hayat Jabbona while PTI has fielded Mian Muhammad Azam Chela who won GE 2013 from the same constituency (old pp-82) son PML-N’s ticket by gaining 37356 votes but lost to Faisal Hayat Jabbona by a big margin in GE 2018 while contesting on PTI’s ticket. It is pertinent to mention here that PML-N didn’t awarded ticket to any candidate in GE 2018.
PP-127 Jhang
In GE 2018 Meher Muhammad Aslam Bharwana won the election with a very narrow margin independently and later on joined PTI. PML-N has awarded the ticket to returning candidates while PTI has nominated the same candidate Muhammad Nawaz Bharwana, as they did in GE 2018. The constituency is under NA 115 where PTI’s Ghulam Bibi Bharwana is MNA.
PML-N candidates in Jhang have a slight advantage as they enjoy the support of PPP’s leader and ex-federal minister Faisal Saleh Hayat and Maulana Mavia Azam.
PP-140 Sheikhupura
In GE 2018 Mian Khalid Mehmood won the election by securing 32862 votes as a PTI candidate. In the upcoming by-election, PML-N has awarded a ticket to Mian Khalid Mehmood while PTI has fielded Khurram Virk who is president of district bar association Sheikhupura. Given that this is an urban constituency, it is likely that voters will base their vote on whatever political party they support. The TLP candidate cannot be disregarded in this particular constituency. In this constituency in 2018, the TLP candidate secured 11265 votes and finished third.
Another interesting fact is that in GE 2018 the total registered vote according to ECP were 200981. Now according to the ECP figures 40000 new voters have been added which may benefit PTI.
PP-158 Lahore
In GE 2018 former senior provincial minister Aleem Khan won this seat on the ticket of PTI. PML-N’s candidate Rana Ahsan Sharafat lost to Aleem Khan in GE 2018 by 6500 votes. PML-N has declared Rana Ahsan Sharafat as its candidate for PP-158 after Aleem Khan has opted not to run in this election. Rana Ahsan Sharafat is the nephew of former speaker of Punjab Assembly Rana Muhammad Iqbal.
PTI has fielded Mian Akram Usman who is son in law of Mian Mehmood u Rasheed. As both, the candidates are relatively outsiders in the constituency so people will vote more for party symbols over candidates. According to ECP the total registered voters in PP158 are 236394.
PP-167 Lahore
In GE 2018 Nazeer Chohan won this seat with a very narrow margin of 1700 votes when he contested on the ticket of PTI. In these, by-elections PML-N has awarded a ticket to the returning candidate Nazeer Chohan while PTI has fielded Shabir Gujar. The political temperature remained high in this constituency throughout the campaign as a clash between candidates was also seen
As PML-N Shaista Pervaiz Malik won the NA133 by-election last year and PP 167 falls within the same seat, it will be the second by-election in this constituency in the past eight months. PPP has a major vote bank in this constituency as they were runner up in NA133 by-elections taking more than 30000 votes.
PP 167 is among very few constituencies in by-election 2022 in which a significant number of new voters, more than 45000 have been registered which will be an advantage to PTI.
PP-168 Lahore
In the 2018 general election, Saad Rafique of the PML-N won the PP-168 Lahore seat. Asad Ali Khokhar ran for the seat on a PTI ticket and won it when Rafique gave up his provincial seat to keep his national seat. Asad Khokar got 17579 votes and won by a very small margin of 600 votes. This particular constituency is considered a stronghold of PMLN.
PML-N has allotted a ticket to Asad Ali Khokhar while PTI has fielded Malik Nawaz Awan. In the last by-election, TLP got 10000 votes from this constituency and their vote bank may increase in the upcoming by-elections.
It is very important to mention here that PP- 168 is the only constituency in Lahore where Maryam Nawaz didn’t come to address the workers and the major reason behind this is Afzal Khokhar a sitting MNA and president PML-N Lahore is Asad Khokhar’s rival.
PP-170 Lahore
In GE 2018 PTI’s Amin Zulqarnain won this seat by getting 25180 votes. Zulqarnain was disqualified this year by the Election Commission for casting a ballot against his party in the race for the chief minister of Punjab.
PML-N has allotted the ticket to Amin Zulqarnain while PTI has given the ticket to Malik Zaheer Abbas Khokhar.
This is one of the most difficult seats to win for PML-N as the PTI candidate is ‘electable’ and former MNA too, his uncle Malik Zaheer Khokhar is still sitting MNA.
Zulqarnain is currently at a disadvantage because the PML-N supporters do not back a candidate who was most recently affiliated with its opponent. Because of this, there aren’t many senior PML-N leaders out there supporting him.
Awn Chaudhry, his brother, who is serving as an advisor to PM Shehbaz Sharif is the one going door to door instead.
PP-202 Sahiwal
In GE 2018 Nauman Langrial won the seat by getting 57000 votes on the PTI ticket. Nauman Langrial is considered electable even though he joined PTI in 2017.
In the upcoming by-election, PML-N has awarded a ticket to Nauman Langrial while PTI has fielded Maj. (retd.) Ghulam Sarwar. Khan’s rally on July 6 gathered a sizable turnout, suggesting that the young people in PP-202 are responding to him which could give Nauman Langrial a tough time at the polls. Adil Saeed Gujjar who was also hoping for a PTI ticket but was not awarded is also in the race as an independent candidate.
Still, this looks an easy win for Nauman Langrial as Ch Zahid Iqbal and Munir Azhar are supporting Nauman Langrial. According to ECP the total registered voters in PP-202 are 233079.
PP-217 Multan
Muhammad Salman Naeem won the PP-217 seat in the 2018 general election after contesting as an independent after PTI turned down his request for a ticket
To everyone’s amazement, Naeem defeated Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the heavyweight candidate for the PTI, by almost 4,000 votes
In the upcoming, by election, Salman Naeem has been awarded PML-N ticket while PTI has fielded Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s son and PTI MNA Zain Qureshi.
The top leadership of the PML-N, including Abid Sher Ali, has been camped in the constituency for some time to campaign for Naeem. All the PML-N factions, Ansari, Bhutta family who opposed Salman Naeem in the last GE are supporting Salman Naeem now. On the other hand, PTI candidate’s father and former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has campaigned for Zain Qureshi.
The election is too close to call but PML-N has an advantage as PPP’s Gillani’s and other PDM parties from Multan are supporting Salman Naeem.
PP-224 Lodhran
In GE 2018 Zawar Hussain Warraich won this seat on PTI’s ticket by securing almost 60000 votes. In the upcoming, by-elections PML-N has awarded a ticket to returning candidate Zawar Hussain Warraich while PTI has fielded Pir Amir Iqbal Shah. Interestingly Pir Amir was PML-N candidate for GE 2018 who lost by 11000 votes.
Hamza Shahbaz has sent Malik Ahmed Khan to Duniyapur, tasked to sort a few groups through Kanju group who was not supporting PML-N candidate earlier. Pir Amir Iqbal clearly had early leads through the campaign because of the confusion in PMLN ranks. Now as things stand Sadiq Baloch and Abdur Rehman Kanju have announced support for Zawar Hussain Warraich but may be it’s too late.
Still, the election is a nip and tuck affair, where both candidates have an equal chance of victory.
PP-237 Bhawalnager
In GE 2018 Fida Hussain won the seat by securing 56411 votes as an independent candidate and later on joined PTI. In the upcoming by-elections, PML-N has awarded the ticket to Fida Hussain while PTI has fielded Aftab Mehmood who is contesting elections for the first time. Fida Hussain is considered a strong electable who has his 50000-vote bank. Fida Hussain is anticipated to win on his own because the PML-N has very little support base in PP-237. Fida Hussain’s nephew PTI sitting MNA Abdul Ghafar Wattoo has also been campaigning for PML-N Candidate and his uncle Fida Hussain.
Due to the fact that this is a remote area, voters would probably base their decisions more on personalities and baradari (clan) than political parties.s
PP-282 Layyah
Muhammad Tahir Randhawa won GE 2018 as an independent candidate by obtaining 37607 votes and later joined PTI. In the upcoming by-election Muhammad Tahir Randhawa is contesting PML-N ticket while PTI has fielded Qaiser Abbas Magsi who lost by 10000 votes to Muhammad Tahir Randhawa in GE 2018. Another candidate Muhammad Riaz is also contesting as an independent candidate, Riaz who ended up on third position in GE 2018 25556 vote while he was contesting on PML-N ticket.
There is a sizable Saraiki vote bank in the area, which will probably be shared between Qaiser Magsi of the PTI and Muhammad Riaz. Randhawa of the PML-N, who already has the backing of the local notables, may benefit from this. It is important to emphasise how local PML-N leaders and workers are upset with their political party for choosing Randhawa.
PP-288 DG Khan
In GE 2018 Mohsin Atta Khan Khosa won the election by getting 39369 votes as an independent candidate and later on joined PTI. In the upcoming by-election PTI has fielded Sardar Saif Uddin Khosa who lost to Muhammad Khan Khosa by 9000 votes. PMLN has awarded a ticket to Abdul Qadir Khosa who is the son of PTI MNA Amjad Farooq Khosa.
Young and vivacious Abdul Qadir Khosa is running for office for the first time. His father’s high reputation among the locals, in terms of how he interacts with them, is also to his advantage, whereas Sardar Saif Uddin Khosa who is the son of the Chief of the Khosa tribe and former governor Punjab Sardar Zulfiqar Ahmed Khosa has a reputation of being inaccessible. PP 288 is under NA 190 where Sardar Amjad Farooq Khosa is MNA and as it stands it looks like Sardar sb is set to win it again for his son Abdul Qadir Khosa on PML-N ticket.
PP-272 Muzaffargarh
In GE 2018 Makhdoom Syed Basit Sultan was elected MPA from PP 272 but he vacated this seat and in by-elections held on 14th October 2018 Syeda Zahra Batool won the seat by securing 27752 Vote on the PTI ticket.
In the upcoming by-elections PML-N has fielded Syeda Zahra Basit Bukhari, her husband Syed Basit Sultan Bukhari is MNA from PTI. While PTI has reopposed trust in Sardar Mauzzam khan Jatoi. Syed Basit Sultan Bukhari’s Brother in law Syed Haroon Sultan Bukhari is also contesting as an independent candidate who in by-elections 2018 secured 18853 votes.
Dr. Zareena Kausar another independent candidate is also expected to make her presence felt as she is the first woman in Jatoi tehsil to have ventured into politics.
A very close contest is expected as supporters of the Bukhari family are divided and Jatoi may be able to cash on this situation. As it stands PTI is ahead in pp 272 after former MPA Sardar Chunnu khan Laghari has withdrawn his candidature in favour of PTI candidate. According to ECP the total registered voters in PP 272 are 203567.
PP-273 Muzaffargarh
In GE 2018 Syed Sabtain Raza Bukhari won the seat by securing 36009 votes on the PTI ticket while PMLN’s Shahid Rasool was on 4th and got 14838 votes. Two independent candidates Rasool Baksh Khan and Malik Abdul Aziz who ended up on 2nd and 3rd position in GE 2018 are not contesting in by-election 2022.
PMLN has nominated Syed Sabtain Raza Bukhari and PTI has fielded Yasir Jatoi for the by-elections being held on 17th July. As long as Aamir Talal Gopang, a disgruntled PTI MNA, supports the PML-N candidate, the election would likely be mostly one-sided. In the constituency, the Gopang group wields considerable influence. Malik Ahmad Kareem Qaswar Langrial and Shoaib Akhtar Khan Gopang have met Hamza Shahbaz and recently announced support for PML-N on PP272 and pp 273 which is a major boost for PMLN.
Even though the PTI’s Jatoi has a sizable voter base, the PML-N may easily win the constituency with just Gopang’s backing for his rival. Voters in this Muzaffargarh urban region also cast their ballots based on the political parties. In PP-273, the vote bases of the PTI and the PML-N are both large. The total registered voters in pp 273 are 225200.
PP-228 Lodhran
In GE 2018 Nazir Ahmed Khan won pp 228 by securing 43169 votes.
In the upcoming, by-polls PML-N has fielded the returning candidate Nazir Ahmed khan while PTI has alloted a party ticket to Capt. Retd. Javed Khan. Another Independent candidate Pir Rafi Uddin Bukhari is also in the race and contested GE 2018 on the PML-N ticket and 39731 votes.
In this constituency, it is clearly between Jahangir Tareen versus Abdul Rehman Kanju. Nazir Baloch has the full support of Jahangir Tareen and Ali Tareen is camping for him, on the other hand, Abdul Rehman Kanju is supporting the PML-N candidate in PP 224 opposing the PML-N candidate in PP 228.
Both Abdul Rehman Kanju and Siddique Baloch another PMLN leader are throwing their support behind Pir Rafi Uddin Bukhari.
This is also a rural constituency and voters mostly vote based on personalities and not on the basis of political parties. As things stand both Nazir Khan Baloch and Pir Rafi Uddin are the top two contenders in the race whoever wins the seat goes to PMLN. It is pertinent to mention here that Rafi Uddin Bukhari has announced if he wins the seat belongs to PML-N. According to ECP total registered voters in pp 228, Lodhra are 226028.
