Syria grapples with unrest as government faces old and new threats

Damascus was rocked by twin explosions on Tuesday during a landmark visit by French President Emmanuel Macron, the first European Union leader to travel to the country since forces led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa deposed Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. The state news agency, SANA, reported that at least 18 people were injured near the French president’s hotel when an initial explosive device detonated whilst security forces were attempting to defuse it, followed by a second blast minutes later. The attack follows a separate cafe bombing in the capital last week that killed nine people, highlighting a volatile security landscape just as the new government attempts to project normalcy and attract foreign investment.

While no group has claimed responsibility, security analysts suspect the remnants of ISIL (ISIS), which still commands an estimated 1,500 to 3,000 fighters across Syria and neighbouring Iraq. Experts warn that the primary objective of these small-scale attacks is psychological and political, aimed at derailing al-Sharaa’s state-building projects and choking off economic revival. The government is concurrently facing distinct security challenges on multiple fronts: scattered sabotage networks operated by remnants of the former Assad regime, including threats from al-Assad’s exiled cousin Rami Makhlouf, and armed local actors in southern Druze-majority regions like Suwayda who continue to resist integration.

Compounding these external threats are intensifying internal frictions within al-Sharaa’s own core constituency. The transitional administration has relied heavily on conservative fighters from the former Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) circle to seize power. However, as al-Sharaa pursues a more moderate governmental agenda to secure Western engagement and capitalises on the sanctions relief granted by US President Donald Trump in June 2025, a pattern of internal division is emerging. Analysts warn that these former religious allies, facing high unemployment amidst a ruined economy, could mount a campaign against the administration over grievances regarding the state’s westward diplomatic shift.