Will some in PTI abandon ship?

Is Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) headed toward another round of desertion? And if so, will it affect the party’s electoral output? These are the questions that come to mind, especially after two senior members of the PTI bid adieu to the party. They are Mahmood Baqi Moulvi, an MNA from Karachi, and Aamer Mahmood Kiani, who was also an MNA and additional secretary of the party. Mr. Moulvi entered the National Assembly last year after he won the NA seat that had fallen vacant after the demise of MNA Aamir Liaquat Hussain. He served as an adviser to the maritime affairs ministry during the PTI-led government.
The reason Mr. Moulvi gave for leaving the party was his difference of opinion with the leadership. He announced that he would be resigning from the lower house as well. Addressing a press conference, Mr. Moulvi regretted the incidents that occurred on May 9, saying that it had changed his mind about his “political future.” He even called on the law enforcement agencies to take action against all those involved in the attacks. He claimed that many people in the party disagreed with several policies but they could not object out of fear.

“Protest is everyone’s right but violent protests, and that too directed at our defense line, cannot be tolerated,” Mr. Moulvi said. Similarly, former health minister and senior PTI leader Aamer Mehmood Kiani also announced that he was parting ways with Imran Khan after the party resorted to vandalism and damaged military installations.
Should we be expecting more such announcements? It would not come as a surprise if there are. History is replete with instances where parties have lost members and have seen factions emerging. Political parties have seen it all. The most recent case is of the PTI itself. Its government came crashing down after several of its MNAs developed differences with the party and decided not to take part in the vote of confidence against Imran Khan.
All those dissident MNAs are still sitting in the lower house, with one of them, Raja Riaz, serving as the leader of the opposition.

In the past, major parties — Pakistan Muslim League (PML) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) — faced similar situations. Even the present PML-N was carved out of the original Muslim League, which was led by former prime minister Mohammad Khan Junejo. In the 1990s, after the death of Mr. Junejo, a faction by the name of PML-Junejo emerged, which had Hamid Nasir Chattha, Manzoor Wattoo, and Sardar Arif Nakai among its leaders. It was even a coalition partner of the PPP during Benazir Bhutto’s second tenure. However, it soon vanished into oblivion.

After Gen Pervez Musharraf toppled Nawaz Sharif’s government in 1999, there emerged a new party, by the name of PML-Quaid, with the Chaudhrys of Gujrat as its leader. The PPP suffered a similar fate during the Musharraf regime. A Pakistan Peoples Party Patriots surfaced with Makhdoom Faisal Saleh Hayat and Rao Sikandar Iqabal its prominent leaders. This faction of the PPP later merged with the PML-Q.

If we go further back, we will see many founding fathers of the PPP saying goodbye to the party. Among them were Mumtaz Bhutto, Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi, Ghulam Mustafa Khar, and Aftab Sherpao. Today, PTI has people among its core members who were once associated with the PML, PPP, and even Jamaat-i-Islami. Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Asad Qaiser and Chaudhry Parvez Elahi are among them.

Pakistan’s politics is unpredictable. No one can say for certain where these parties and all those who matter steer the country towards. The May 9 incident has certainly damaged the PTI. There is no end to the crackdown on its leaders and workers.
But, will it affect the vote bank? The answer is no.

The PTI still has a strong base of support, especially among the youth. It is also the only party that has been able to effectively challenge the traditional political parties of Pakistan. The PTI may have lost some of its senior members, but it still has a strong team of leaders and workers who are committed to its cause. It is too early to say whether the PTI will be able to form the next government, but it is certainly a force to be reckoned with.