One horse has bolted, and the remaining 187 are in wait for the match due to be held on Friday evening.
From blistering heat to weltering rain, dramatic changes occurred in Lahore’s weather in last couple of weeks, but many believe the weather of politics of Punjab will witness no change in the hours to come.
Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi is ready to settle the score with the Sharifs. It seems it will be a smooth sailing for him against Hamza Shehbaz, the current chief minister who emerged the winner in April 16 polls against the former.
The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) currently has 179 lawmakers as opposed to Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) 187.
The question arises why despite losing the majority, the ruling PML-N is not ready to lose Punjab. The PML-N’s politics is at stake if the province goes out of its hands at this defining movement. The leadership is worried after the situation that emerged after July 17 by-polls in the province.
The PML-N, perhaps, still awaits miracles to retain the chief ministership. Definitely, it has again pinned some hopes on Zardari – the godfather of Machiavellian politics in Pakistan.
But the former president seems hopeless this time. He failed to win the support of PML-Q President Ch Shujaat Hussain when the latter’s cousin himself is a candidate against Hamza.
Interestingly, Elahi was the first choice of Zardari for crown of Punjab. Chaudhry probably suits him at a time when his Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has lost public support in Punjab and perhaps all over the country except some pockets in Sindh, where it has been in power for 14 consecutive years.
With only seven seats in the 371-member Punjab Assembly, the secular left-wing PPP – once the voice of labourers, poor and middle-class – is fighting for its survival. The PPP co-chairman believes that Elahi, who worked as deputy prime minister (2008-2013) with them, would certainly create some space for his party after becoming Punjab CM, a speculation that could prove totally wrong since its politics after all.
In the prevailing situation, it seems the future war in politics is to be fought between the PTI and the PML-N. The former, however, has weightage over the latter so far with its chairman Imran Khan winning the masses overwhelmingly.
Some leaders of the PML-N, in private discussions, admit Zardari dragged the PML-N into this difficult situation. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, they say, went against the wishes of the party supremo and his brother Nawaz Sharif. The results are apparent.
Imran Khan, they said, borrowed the former three-time prime minister’s anti-establishment narrative, took a bold stand and won the people’s hearts.
The Election Commission of Pakistan has already notified 15 MPAs of the PTI who stood victorious in Sunday’s nail-biting contest. Already having 163 in the provincial house, the PTI’s own numbers now 178. The PTI and PML-Q’s 10 make the total 188, but one member went to Turkey days before the CM’s election. The PTI alleged that the loyalty of Chaudhry Masood Ahmad, the MPA from Rahim Yar Khan-III, was purchased with money.
The PML-N had 165 members before the by-election on 20 seats. But two of its MPAs resigned and the ruling party raised allegations similar to those put forth by the PTI against both. Already having 163, with four winners in the by-elections, its number now touches 167. If the PML-N succeeds in securing the support of all six independents, including Ch Nisar Ali Khan, one Rah-e-Haq and seven PPP members, it still remains six short of the expected winner [181-187]. Since there is no chance that Ch Nisar will make a comeback and with another woman MPA of PML-N on special seats, Uzma Zaeem Qadri announcing that she has COVID and will not come to assembly to cast the vote on Friday, CM Hamza Shehbaz is likely to have 179 members against PTI and PML-Q’s 187 on doomsday.
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