2024 has dawned, posing numerous challenges for international community, most notably situation in Gaza that is getting worse. The incumbent thirty-seventh Israel government under premiership of Benjamin Netanyahu, despite internal and external pressures, is not agreeing for truce and peaceful solution of the Palestinian question. Year 2023 has passed leaving indelible marks on our collective consciousness. Unfortunately, 2023 has ended dampening all hopes for peace, without bringing any positive changes globally.
On the economic front, the pervasive issue of inflation continued to pose formidable challenges globally. Humanity witnessed an alarming surge in poverty, accompanied by a disconcerting escalation in social inequality. The specters of financial and political corruption loomed large, casting shadows on the integrity of the existing world order. Unemployment persisted as a pressing concern, exacerbating challenges faced by societies. Furthermore, the ominous cloud of climate change lingered, underscoring the urgent need for collective action. In reflection, just ended of 2023 presented an array of complex issues that demand our attention and concerted efforts as we navigate the path ahead.
Global conflicts have continued to disrupt global peace, with the ongoing Russian–Ukraine war claiming numerous lives and causing political polarizations. 10th major wheat producer, Ukraine now faces severe existential threats. Simultaneously, the Israel–Palestine conflict has resulted in the tragic loss of over 20,000 people leaving more than 60,000 wounded, in less than three months,. Despite these alarming situations, it appears that major global powers, such as the G-7, G-20, and the European Union, demonstrated lack of interest in bringing to halt the genocide unfolding in Gaza, Palestine. This collective apathy on the part of the most powerful also raises concerns about effectiveness and justification of international institutions.
The global community’s collusive silence on these pressing issues is nothing short of a grave offence against humanity, posing a persistent threat to the very fabric of global peace. While the United Nations Secretary-General appears resolute in addressing the ongoing genocidal events in Palestine and war in Ukraine, he expresses genuine concern about the formidable challenges faced by humanitarian organizations attempting to provide aid to the beleaguered people of Gaza.
A significant hurdle in the way of worldwide peace lies in the unrestrained authority wielded by the five members of the United Nations Security Council, responsible for shaping the entire world’s destiny. Israel and Palestine serve as stark examples of misappropriation of powers by certain nations. Efforts to bring about meaningful and lasting peace must involve re-evaluation of structures and powers within the international community, urging for a more equitable and just distribution of responsibility in the pursuit of global harmony.
The year 2023 once again unfolded the truth alluded to purported champions of human rights, particularly Europe and the United States, that find themselves under scrutiny as they immediately impose sanctions on third-world countries due to alleged human rights violations. Surprisingly, these nations seem to have turned a blind eye to alarming humanitarian crises. The United Kingdom, led by a Prime Minister who belongs to a family of expatriates, has taken an unexpected and convoluted role by extending full cooperation to Israel in actions that involve killing of innocent civilians, including women and children. This grim discrepancy in their approach raises questions about the sincerity of global leaders in upholding human rights values, urging a critical reevaluation of their policies and actions on the international stage.
In addition to grappling with global challenges, Pakistan faced a myriad of internal issues throughout the year, ranging from political instability to judicial activism and economic crises including law and order situation. As 2023 commenced, Pakistan found itself on the brink of default, necessitating reliance on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a bailout package following the completion of the ninth review of the Extended Fund Facility Program initiated by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government in 2019. Unfortunately, the bailout package did not materialize as anticipated and prematurely expires end of June 2023. The looming threat of default persisted until Pakistan secured a $3 billion loan through a Standby Arrangement with the global lender, thus averting a potentially precarious financial situation.
Throughout 2023, Pakistan struggled with persistent inflation, experiencing an historic peak soaring to approximately 38%. that began to ease post-June, but the country still faces a significant inflation rate of around 29%, suggesting that 2024 be just a continuum. Businesses too encountered downward conditions as the policy rate hovered above 20%, currently standing at 22%. High policy rates not only affected the overall economic landscape but also posed existential threats to small and medium enterprises, amid escalating energy and petroleum product prices extending to diminishing purchasing power of the less fortunate rendering the viability of smaller businesses impossible.
Judiciary also remained under criticism during the initial months of 2023 with the leadership of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), led by Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman, criticizing it for giving what he called “undue relief” to then Chairman of PTI by granting him bails in multiple cases. The Supreme Court, led by Umer Ata Bandial also attracted severe criticism for allegedly passing “selective judgements” and constituting “favourable bench” for “desirable results”. The nation also witnessed unfortunate clearly discernible clash between the Parliament and apex court in response to which, Supreme Court Practice and Procedure Bill got suspended. Simultaneously, the executive branch declined to comply with the Supreme Court’s directive to the Election Commission of Pakistan, to hold provincial Assembly elections within 90 days and also refused to allocate funds to the Election Commission of Pakistan, (ECP) dismissing the decision a minority judgment with a ratio of 4:3. This pronounced discord between vital branches of government underscored the tensions within the political landscape, raising questions about balance of powers and adherence to legal directives.
On the political front, PTI exhibited a fervent and assertive stance until the dramatic shift on May 9, 2023 upsetting the political apple cart with the arrest of Party Chairman Imran Khan by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) in the premises of Islamabad High Court. This development triggered widespread demonstrations among supporters, which unfortunately escalated into violence, resulting in significant damage to governmental and military facilities. The Corps Commander House in Lahore and various other military locations suffered the brunt of these agitations bringing about a pivotal turning point in the political dynamics of the nation and prompting a reevaluation of the circumstances surrounding the party and its leadership.
Consequently, a number of top leaders of PTI were apprehended or voluntarily opted to part ways with the party. The party Chairman, was booked in multiple legal cases, encompassing charges of corruption, conspiracy, and involvement in the 9th May incident, the severity and veracity of the alleged allegations suggest limited prospects for his imminent release. Following intervention of the Supreme Court, the President of Pakistan, in consultation with the ECP officially announced the date and schedule for the upcoming general elections. Candidates have submitted their nomination papers, that have undergone thorough scrutiny. Media reported that the nomination papers of many candidates of PTI, including Imran Khan, and various other political leaders and candidates have been rejected due to anomalies and misdeclaration.
On the other hand, former convicted Prime Minister Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif, leader of the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), has made a comeback after spending four years in self-exile. The Islamabad High Court has accepted his appeals in corruption cases, marking a significant development. Both Mian Nawaz Sharif and his party are actively taking part in the upcoming elections.
Since his return to the country, Mian Nawaz Sharif has not made any notable public appearances or shared his vision to address the prevailing challenges in the event of his party’s success in elections. However, there are considerable speculations about his party emerging victorious and forming the government post-election. Regardless of the credibility of this assumption, the ECP needs to play its constitutional role in ensuring an electoral environment where questions about fairness of the forthcoming elections cannot be raised.
Pakistan is currently passing through a grim period and any misfortune could jeopardize our national security. Our economy teeters on the brink of collapse, with foreign exchange reserves insufficient for loan repayments and inadequate to meet traders’ import demands. Elevated policy rates and inflation are adversely affecting the lives of ordinary citizens and posing survival challenges for businesses.
As the value of Pakistani rupee declined earlier in the year, stabilizing efforts by the caretaker government following crackdowns on illegal money changers and currency smugglers brought some stability. However, the current exchange rate remains inconsistent with our economic profile.
Pakistan’s foreign policy requires a thorough overhaul, given the visible gaps in the global community’s approach. It is crucial to carefully select our friends and allies in this challenging scenario. Normalizing relations with the United States and fostering cooperation is essential. In the Middle East, where divisions exist, a diplomatic strategy should focus on establishing positive relationships with all countries. China, a vital ally, requires a shift from friendship to a robust trade partnership. Renegotiating trade agreements with China to ensure equal opportunities for our businesses is imperative for aligning exports with the economic potential of both nations. A clear vision of prosperity would definitely be instrumental in addressing the pressing challenges facing Pakistan in 2024.
Dr. Ikramul Haq, Advocate Supreme Court, specialises in constitutional, corporate, media and cyber laws, ML/CFT, IT, intellectual property, arbitration and international taxation. He holds LLD in tax law with a specialization in transfer pricing. He was a full-time journalist from 1979 to 1984 with Viewpoint and Dawn. He served Civil Services of Pakistan from 1984 to 1996. He established Huzaima & Ikram in 1996 and is presently its chief partner as well as a partner in Huzaima Ikram & Ijaz.
He studied journalism, English literature and law. He is the Chief Editor of Taxation. He is country editor and correspondent of International Bureau of Fiscal Documentation (IBFD) and member of International Fiscal Association (IFA). He is Visiting Faculty at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) and member Advisory Board and Visiting Senior Fellow of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE).
He has coauthored with Huzaima Bukhari many books that include Tax Reforms in Pakistan: Historic & Critical Review, Towards Flat, Low-rate, Broad and Predictable Taxes (revised & Expanded Edition, Pakistan: Enigma of Taxation, Towards Flat, Low-rate, Broad and Predictable Taxes (revised/enlarged edition of December 2020), Law & Practice of Income Tax, Law , Practice of Sales Tax, Law and Practice of Corporate Law, Law & Practice of Federal Excise, Law & Practice of Sales Tax on Services, Federal Tax Laws of Pakistan, Provincial Tax Laws, Practical Handbook of Income Tax, Tax Laws of Pakistan, Principles of Income Tax with Glossary and Master Tax Guide, Income Tax Digest 1886-2011 (with judicial analysis).
He is author of Commentary on Avoidance of Double Taxation Agreements, Pakistan: From Hash to Heroin, its sequel Pakistan: Drug-trap to Debt-trap and Practical Handbook of Income Tax. Two books of poetry are Phull Kikkaran De (Punjabi 2023) and Nai Ufaq (Urdu 1979 with Siraj Munir and Shahid Jamal). He regularly writes columns for many Pakistani newspapers and international journals and has contributed over 2500 articles on a variety of issues of public interest, printed in various journals, magazines and newspapers at home and abroad.
Twitter: DrIkramulHaq
Abdul Rauf Shakoori, Advocate High Court, is a subject-matter expert on AML-CFT, Compliance, Cyber Crime and Risk Management. He has been providing AML-CFT advisory and training services to financial institutions (banks, DNFBPs, Investment companies, Money Service Businesses, insurance companies and securities), government institutions including law enforcement agencies located in North America (USA & CANADA), Middle East and Pakistan. His areas of expertise include legal, strategic planning, cross border transactions including but not limited to joint ventures (JVs), mergers & acquisitions (M&A), takeovers, privatizations, overseas expansions, USA Patriot Act, Banking Secrecy Act, Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).
Over his career he has demonstrated excellent leadership, communication, analytical, and problem-solving skills and have also developed and delivered training courses in the areas of AML/CFT, Compliance, Fraud & Financial Crime Risk Management, Bank Secrecy, Cyber Crimes & Internet Threats against Banks, E–Channels Fraud Prevention, Security and Investigation of Financial Crimes. The courses have been delivered as practical workshops with case study driven scenarios and exams to insure knowledge transfer.
His notable publications are: Rauf’s Compilation of Corporate Laws of Pakistan, Rauf’s Company Law and Practice of Pakistan and Rauf’s Research on Labour Laws and Income Tax and others.
His articles include Revenue collection: Contemporary targets vs. orthodox approach, It is time to say goodbye to our past, US double standards, Was Due Process Flouted While Convicting Nawaz Sharif?, FATF and unjustly grey listed Pakistan, Corruption is no excuse for Incompetence, Next step for Pakistan, Pakistan’s compliance with FATF mandates, a work in progress, Pakistan’s strategy to address FATF Mandates was Inadequate, Pakistan’s Evolving FATF Compliance, Transparency Curtails Corruption, Pakistan’s Long Road towards FATF Compliance, Pakistan’s Archaic Approach to Addressing FATF Mandates, FATF: Challenges for June deadline, Pakistan: Combating the illicit flow of money, Regulating Crypto: An uphill task for Pakistan. Pakistan’s economy – Chicanery of numbers. Pakistan: Reclaiming its space on FATF whitelist. Sacred Games: Kulbhushan Jadhav Case. National FATF secretariat and Financial Monitoring Unit. The FATF challenge. Pakistan: Crucial FATF hearing. Pakistan: Dissecting FATF Failure, Environmental crimes: An emerging challenge, Countering corrupt practices .
Twitter: Adbul Rauf Shakoori
The recent publication, coauthored with Huzaima Bukhari, is
Pakistan Tackling FATF: Challenges & Solutions
available at: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08RXH8W46
