With general elections approaching fast, an air of suspicion looms over the political landscape. Despite the onset of campaign activities, a significant concern is the apparent lack of earnestness among political parties, given the proximity of elections, only 17 days away. Surprisingly, a majority of contesting parties have not unveiled their manifestos. Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) has presented a 10-point welfare agenda, unlike detailed manifestos available on its website for the last four general elections, that promises to double wages, provide free solar energy up to 300 units for the poor, establish green energy parks, ensure education and healthcare for all, construct three million houses for flood victims and underprivileged, expand BISP’s scope for poverty alleviation, and introduce various cards and programmes for the youth, workers and formers. However, a comprehensive manifesto covering all aspects, including fund generation for these initiatives, is yet to be released by the party.
Both Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), major political parties, have faced challenges in presenting their manifestos for the upcoming elections. Grappling with internal and leadership issues with key members in jail and others announcing separation from the party, PTI has encountered difficulties, understandably contributing to delay in unveiling its manifesto. On the other hand, PMLN, despite claiming a two-thirds majority, free senior leadership and enjoying complete independence in holding meetings, has surprisingly faltered in introducing its manifesto. While a committee led by Irfan Siddique was formed weeks ago to formulate the party’s manifesto, and a public campaign was initiated to gather suggestions for a comprehensive document, but PMLN has yet to launch it.
A manifesto serves as a crucial document providing voters with insights into the policies of political parties, enabling them to assess how these parties plan to tackle current challenges. In Pakistan, it seems that political parties are not placing due importance on this significant document, potentially to evade accountability for the claims and promises outlined within it.
Voters find themselves lacking information on strategic plans by major political parties to address a spectrum of critical issues. These encompass foreign policy, law and order, economy, terrorism, politics, judicial independence, unemployment, inflation, and governance. Complicating matters, Pakistan is currently negotiating with International Monetary Fund (IMF) a US$ 3 billion 9-meonth Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Despite successful completion of the first review, securing an immediate disbursement of around US$700 million, the timing of the second review coincides with the tenure of the newly elected government, introducing an element of uncertainty. This temporal alignment adds to the pre-existing lack of clarity regarding policy perspectives of three major political parties.
In the face of above complex challenges, a transparent and well-articulated political agenda becomes crucial for effectively addressing the concerns outlined by IMF in its latest country report of January 19, 2024, and for fostering sustainable development.
Pakistan faces mounting concerns as its population surges to a monumental 241 million, juxtaposed against a persistent poverty rate of 21.9% and an anticipated 8% unemployment rate in 2024. IMF’s press release further highlights these challenges, projecting a current account balance of -1.6 for the same year, with an expected foreign direct investment of a mere 0.3%. This demographic and economic scenario prompts questions about the effectiveness of current policies in addressing critical issues such as poverty, unemployment, and economic stability.
Moreover, IMF emphasizes positive developments in Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions, underscoring a strengthened fiscal position in Financial Year (FY) Q1, achieving a primary surplus of 0.4% of the GDP, and anticipating a growth of 2% in FY 2024. Despite these positive aspects, inflation remains elevated; however, with appropriately stringent policies, the IMF suggests it could decline to 18.5% by end-June 2024. Moreover, foreign exchange reserves showed a substantial increase in gross reserves to US$8.2 billion in December 2023, up from US$4.5 billion in June, while the exchange rate has maintained broad stability. IMF foresees a rise in the current account deficit to around 1½ percent of GDP in FY24 as recovery gains momentum. Assuming sustained sound macroeconomic policy and effective implementation of structural reforms, IMF anticipates a return to the State Bank of Pakistan’s target for inflation, with continued strengthening of growth over medium term.
IMF has acknowledged Pakistan’s commendable efforts in implementing bold measures to reduce subsidies on electricity and natural gas, aligning costs in the previous year. However, the global lender underscores the ongoing need for regularly scheduled adjustments and emphasizes the significance of pushing for reforms on the cost side of the power sector. According to IMF, these reforms are vital not only for improving the sector’s overall viability but also for safeguarding fiscal sustainability. Recognition of Pakistan’s steps in subsidy reduction reflects a commitment to addressing economic challenges but the lender’s insistence on continued adjustments and sector-specific reforms highlights continuance of efforts.
As IMF persistently advocates continuation of scheduled price adjustments and reduction of subsidies how would major political parties provide 200-300 free electricity units they are promising, to attract voters? They ought to unveil their manifestos and share their revenue generation measures. This transparency would enable the public to understand their strategy for resource generation plans that are essential for informed decision-making by the electorate.
Pakistan’s critical challenges cannot be adequately addressed through mere speeches and empty promises. It is crucial for our politicians to recognize that the sufferings of the people outweigh their desire for power. What is needed is a concrete agenda with a comprehensive implementation plan before seeking voters’ mandate. Transparency and accountability are paramount, and politicians should be held answerable if they fall short of implementing their proposed agenda. Leading the country in the face of multiple challenges requires collaboration with IMF to overcome fiscal hurdles.
The upcoming government must implement a robust policy framework to address both domestic and external balances, ensuring effective execution of FY24 budget for necessary fiscal adjustments and debt sustainability. Safeguarding critical social spending is of utmost importance. Proactive measures are essential to address external shocks, maintain foreign exchange reserves, and implement a tight monetary policy for disinflation. Initiating energy reforms, including reduced subsidies for financial viability, is imperative and of course, working toward climate resilience. Privatization steps should be taken to relieve burden on the treasury by divesting from loss-making entities.
Establishing a business-friendly environment to attract investments and stimulate economic activity is crucial. This endeavour will not only contribute to enhancing foreign exchange reserves, but can also facilitate in improving revenue generation and reduction in unemployment. Achieving these goals requires leaders to demonstrate a sincere commitment to accountability, transparency, and responsiveness to the public. Unfortunately, current lack of seriousness in sharing manifestos with the public denies citizens the opportunity, rather the right, to make well-informed decisions while selecting their representatives.
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Dr. Ikramul Haq, Advocate Supreme Court, specialises in constitutional, corporate, media and cyber laws, ML/CFT, IT, intellectual property, arbitration and international taxation. He holds LLD in tax laws with specialization in transfer pricing. He was full-time journalist from 1979 to 1984 with Viewpoint and Dawn. He served Civil Services of Pakistan from 1984 to 1996. He established Huzaima & Ikram in 1996 and is presently its chief partner as well as partner in Huzaima Ikram & Ijaz.
He studied journalism, English literature and law. He is Chief Editor of Taxation. He is country editor and correspondent of International Bureau of Fiscal Documentation (IBFD) and member of International Fiscal Association (IFA). He is Visiting Faculty at Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) and member Advisory Board and Visiting Senior Fellow of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE).
He has coauthored with Huzaima Bukhari many books that include Tax Reforms in Pakistan: Historic & Critical Review, Towards Flat, Low-rate, Broad and Predictable Taxes (revised & Expanded Edition, Pakistan: Enigma of Taxation, Towards Flat, Low-rate, Broad and Predictable Taxes (revised/enlarged edition of December 2020), Law & Practice of Income Tax, Law , Practice of Sales Tax, Law and Practice of Corporate Law, Law & Practice of Federal Excise, Law & Practice of Sales Tax on Services, Federal Tax Laws of Pakistan, Provincial Tax Laws, Practical Handbook of Income Tax, Tax Laws of Pakistan, Principles of Income Tax with Glossary and Master Tax Guide, Income Tax Digest 1886-2011 (with judicial analysis).
He is author of Commentary on Avoidance of Double Taxation Agreements, Pakistan: From Hash to Heroin, its sequel Pakistan: Drug-trap to Debt-trap and Practical Handbook of Income Tax. Two books of poetry are Phull Kikkaran De (Punjabi 2023) and Nai Ufaq (Urdu 1979, with Siraj Munir and Shahid Jamal).
He regularly writes columns for many Pakistani newspapers and international journals and has contributed over 2500 articles on a variety of issues of public interest, printed in various journals, magazines and newspapers at home and abroad.
Twitter: DrIkramulHaq
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Abdul Rauf Shakoori, Advocate High Court, is a subject-matter expert on AML-CFT, Compliance, Cyber Crime and Risk Management. He has been providing AML-CFT advisory and training services to financial institutions (banks, DNFBPs, Investment companies, Money Service Businesses, insurance companies and securities), government institutions including law enforcement agencies located in North America (USA & CANADA), Middle East and Pakistan. His areas of expertise include legal, strategic planning, cross border transactions including but not limited to joint ventures (JVs), mergers & acquisitions (M&A), takeovers, privatizations, overseas expansions, USA Patriot Act, Banking Secrecy Act, Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).
Over his career he has demonstrated excellent leadership, communication, analytical, and problem-solving skills and have also developed and delivered training courses in the areas of AML/CFT, Compliance, Fraud & Financial Crime Risk Management, Bank Secrecy, Cyber Crimes & Internet Threats against Banks, E–Channels Fraud Prevention, Security and Investigation of Financial Crimes. The courses have been delivered as practical workshops with case study driven scenarios and exams to insure knowledge transfer.
His notable publications are: Rauf’s Compilation of Corporate Laws of Pakistan, Rauf’s Company Law and Practice of Pakistan and Rauf’s Research on Labour Laws and Income Tax and others.
His articles include: Revenue collection: Contemporary targets vs. orthodox approach, It is time to say goodbye to our past, US double standards, Was Due Process Flouted While Convicting Nawaz Sharif?, FATF and unjustly grey listed Pakistan, Corruption is no excuse for Incompetence, Next step for Pakistan, Pakistan’s compliance with FATF mandates, a work in progress, Pakistan’s strategy to address FATF Mandates was Inadequate, Pakistan’s Evolving FATF Compliance, Transparency Curtails Corruption, Pakistan’s Long Road towards FATF Compliance, Pakistan’s Archaic Approach to Addressing FATF Mandates, FATF: Challenges for June deadline, Pakistan: Combating the illicit flow of money, Regulating Crypto: An uphill task for Pakistan. Pakistan’s economy – Chicanery of numbers. Pakistan: Reclaiming its space on FATF whitelist. Sacred Games: Kulbhushan Jadhav Case. National FATF secretariat and Financial Monitoring Unit. The FATF challenge. Pakistan: Crucial FATF hearing. Pakistan: Dissecting FATF Failure, Environmental crimes: An emerging challenge, Countering corrupt practices .
Twitter: Adbul Rauf Shakoori
The recent publication, coauthored with Huzaima Bukhari, is
Pakistan Tackling FATF: Challenges & Solutions
available at: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08RXH8W46
