In November 2024, the United States will hold a presidential election, a significant event both domestically and internationally due to the president’s substantial influence. The country operates under a two-party system, with the Republican and Democratic parties dominating politics. The upcoming general election is expected to feature Joe Biden and Donald Trump in an unprecedented rematch. This race differs from past elections as it compares two former presidents, rather than being solely a referendum on the incumbent. The Trump campaign is anticipated to focus on attacking Biden to deflect attention from Trump’s own vulnerabilities, including legal issues and divisive actions. Biden also faces challenges in promoting his achievements and energizing his campaign. The incumbent president portrays his predecessor as reckless and a threat to democracy. Despite few Americans desiring this rematch, it appears increasingly likely to be the reality for voters.
President Biden’s approval ratings are concerning as he heads into an election year, while public opinions of Trump also lean negative. The upcoming general election in November is expected to be closely contested, with national polls indicating either an even match or a slight edge for Trump. However, the usefulness of these polls is limited due to the unique dynamics of the US political system, where the outcome depends on key states due to the electoral college system. Pivotal states that could swing either way include Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia. Nevada is also a battleground state, though less significant due to its smaller population. Some states, like Florida and North Carolina, show recent trends favoring the Republican Party, while others like Virginia and Colorado are firmly Democratic-leaning. Typically, Americans vote based on economic circumstances in national elections, supporting the governing party during prosperous times and the opposition during economic downturns (Reported by BBC).
The 2024 election prediction is challenging despite positive economic indicators, including steady growth, low unemployment, and high stock market performance. However, many voters remain pessimistic due to factors like inflation and high housing costs. President Biden sees recent optimism in consumer confidence and decreasing inflation, while former President Trump may argue for the superiority of his economic policies. Biden emphasizes his handling of post-Covid economic challenges and his infrastructure investment, tax cuts, and social spending. Democrats focus on abortion rights, capitalizing on recent Supreme Court decisions, while Trump and conservatives prioritize immigration as a key electoral issue, citing record-high border crossings.
Concerns about the health and fitness of both Biden, aged 81, and Trump, aged 77, remain relevant, particularly during the autumn presidential debates. Age is a significant factor affecting Biden’s candidacy, while scrutiny remains on whether Trump will show signs of aging. Widespread dissatisfaction with major-party candidates opens opportunities for third-party or independent candidates, including Robert Kennedy Jr. and potentially the No Labels group. Trump’s legal issues, with 91 charges and four criminal trials, could impact the election, especially if he faces a conviction. The January 2021 Capitol attack, attributed to Trump by some, continues to influence public opinion, particularly among Democrats and independent voters. Continuous reminders of this event may intensify scrutiny of Trump’s past actions throughout the election cycle.
The US is facing significant global challenges, including involvement in conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, deteriorating US-China relations, and tensions in the Asia Pacific region. Central American migration and US-led airstrikes in Yemen further highlight the global impact of American leadership. The prospect of Trump’s return with his “America First” agenda adds uncertainty, with some countries anticipating his return while many allies fear dealing with him again.
Foreign leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky, are closely monitoring the US presidential election, particularly in Kyiv, where the outcome could significantly impact the conflict in Ukraine. Democratic Senator Chris Coons highlights the international interest in whether American voters might elect President Donald Trump again. The next president’s policy towards Ukraine could influence the course of the war.
Without specifying individuals, Mr. Trump has claimed he could swiftly end the war if elected, although he hasn’t elaborated on his plan. Ukrainians fear he might pursue negotiations unfavorable to their interests. This stance would likely be welcomed in Russia, where Trump enjoys media support, and criticism has been directed at efforts to exclude him from ballots in 16 US states. The Kremlin-controlled channel NTV condemned these efforts as interference in US elections and undermining democracy, a sentiment echoed by some Russian and Chinese observers. A change in US policy could have broader implications beyond Ukraine, especially concerning European states neighboring Russia.
There’s concern that a re-elected President Trump might follow through on his intention to withdraw the US from NATO, which could severely weaken the military alliance. Individuals associated with the Trump campaign suggest he intends to pursue this course. European allies, according to Senator Coons, are justified in their anxiety about this possibility. It’s crucial for the US and its European partners to demonstrate unity in the face of common challenges posed by Putin’s Russia and President Xi’s authoritarian vision for the world.
The conflict in the Middle East, particularly the US support for Israel, has influenced American politics, with younger and Arab Americans opposing White House policies to the extent that it could affect Joe Biden’s chances of winning a state in the election. Surprisingly, Israelis, who previously favored Trump, have shifted their support towards Biden, creating a paradox as their newfound support for Biden could potentially strengthen Trump’s re-election prospects, according to Israeli media. However, other Middle Eastern countries may welcome a change in US leadership, with some preferring a Republican president who may offer less interference and criticism regarding regional conflicts and human rights issues.
The US presidential election draws a global audience due to America’s significant influence worldwide. This particular election, the sixth for the author, is especially scrutinized internationally, partly due to America’s involvement in various global issues and also because of concerns raised after the events of January 6th, 2021, which highlighted the vulnerability of American democracy. The world is eager to see how the US will perform in this democratic test, especially considering the host of crises the country faces, including record-breaking heat in 2023, war in Europe in 2022, and the unforeseen global pandemic in 2020. The next president will need to navigate these challenges with the support of strong global alliances, making the international community’s reaction to the election crucial not only for the world but also for America itself.
