In the United Kingdom, it is a constitutional requirement to hold general elections before January 28, 2025, for which the House of Commons has to be dissolved no later than December 17, 2024. This time, significant constituency boundary alterations will also be affected, as the demographic situation in various parts of the country has changed since the 2010 general elections when such an exercise was undertaken for the last time.
As per ALJAZEERA dated January 4, 2024, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has indicated holding of general elections during the second half of 2024, as he needs time ‘to get the economy back on track’. Apart from British finances, he specifically highlighted ‘illegal migration’——–an issue that needs to be addressed immediately. Though Sunak has been able to hit the important target of halving the inflation by the end of 2023, the economy-related analysts are reluctant to accord any credit to the government and insist that it was not in result of official policies. The ruling party also highlights the Japanese pledge of investing more than $22 billion in the UK economy, during Rishi Sunak’s May 2023 visit to Japan, as a ‘massive vote of confidence’. PM Sunak seems to be aware that his party, in power since 2010, will have to struggle a lot in the upcoming elections, as in recently-held polls it trailed behind the Labor Party by around 20 points. At the moment, he is under pressure from his party members to reduce taxes as they expect to win back their traditional conservative supporters, who otherwise are not happy with their policies. Another problem that has added to Sunak’s worries is the refusal of the right-wing ‘Reform UK Party’ to continue its support for the ‘Conservative Party’ during the upcoming elections.
There is a reasonable number of British who believe that elections will be called in May to co-inside with the local elections. This school of thought claims that the phrase ‘working assumption’ used in PM’s statement provides him the space to ‘wriggle’ in case the political situation alters. This group stresses that the British PM ‘has not ruled out spring elections, in case the situation demands’. Contrary to this theory, few commentators, Lord Hayward being the most prominent, have predicted the elections around November 14 after the Tory Party conference during the first week of October at Birmingham that will serve as a ‘launch-pad’ for the electoral exercise. It is interesting to notice that the next US elections are scheduled for November 5 and in case the British elections are also programmed simultaneously, then campaigns on each side of the Atlantic will collide and it will be a scenario that will happen after decades. Some analysts have expressed their apprehension that due to the overlapping of the American election, the media coverage of the British electoral exercise will be compromised; and proposed holding of elections on some earlier date of late September or early October. Few political observers have opined in favor of early 2025, a suitable date for Tories to go for elections but it was ruled out by Sunak while attending the media persons at 10-Downing Street in December 2023 and labeled 2024 as an ‘election year’.
The legal position, in connection with the holding elections, is very clear——- According to the ‘Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022’ the fresh elections need to be called by December 17, 2024, otherwise, the lower house will automatically dissolve i.e. exactly 05 years after December 12, 2019. In that case, the electoral exercise must be held by January 28, 2025, five years since the current house first-time met after allowing time for campaigning. It is noteworthy that the date of elections is solely the prerogative of the Prime Minister after the repeal of the ‘Fixed-term Parliament’s Act’ in 2022. However, the controversy regarding the better time for Tories to hold the election continues…….. what ultimately happens, cannot be stated with certainty.
On the face of it, the Conservative Party seems to be in a thick soup……….vide the opinion polls for well over a year now, it has consistently trailed the opposition Labor Party by double digits. Two factors are reported to be undermining the conservatives………worst cost of living crises in decades and Tory in-fighting that has resulted in showing the door to five Prime Ministers since the 2016 Brexit vote; rather than over-whelming support for Labor. Despite numerous setbacks PM Rishi Sunak is reported to hoping for good results due to economic growth, success in sending asylum-seekers to Rwanda, and trust in his style of politics. The political commentators emphasize that despite a difficult situation Sunak can lead his party to another win by successfully portraying himself as a ‘change’ candidate despite being the leader of a party that has been in power for the last 14 years. He needs to highlight that he has a fresh vision to deal with the problems being faced by the British after the chaos of the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss administrations.
Labor Party leader Keir Strammer seems determined to return his, left-of-center party to power——out of it since 2010. He continuously stresses elections as according to him ‘the country is ready for elections’ and the ‘people are eying for a change’. He also severely criticizes the incumbent for ‘dithering and delaying’. Regarding the basis of his anti-Tory campaign, Keir Strammer vows to fight the conservatives on the ‘economy’. Recently, he attacked Rishi Sunak’s hesitation in calling the elections in harsh words: ’ This has serious implications for the country because he is saying he is going to be squatting months and months in Downing Street; dithering and delaying’. He keeps on claiming that the PM is trying to ‘squat’ at Number 10 for as long as possible. Interestingly, ‘Reuters’ dated January 4, 2024, contained an article titled ‘Second half of the year—UK PM fires starting gun on election’ by Muvija M and Elizabeth Piper which opined that ‘few had believed the British leader would call an early election with his Conservatives so far behind in the polls, but opposition parties hope to bounce him into it by saying he was running scared of voters’.
Keeping in view the above-submitted picture, one can declare with confidence that PM Rishi Sunak will try to delay the elections as much as possible and the chances of winning over the electorates are acutely narrow. The reasons are very easy to understand by any student of politics: an exceptionally long rule of the Conservatives i.e. almost 15 years since 2010 and the precarious economic condition of the UK with very bleak chances of recovery, at least through a Conservative government. However, in politics, nothing can be final…….a small event can alter or falsify all the forecasts.
