Since the out-break of Israel- Hamas War on October 7, 2023, more than 15,000 Palestinians have been killed and properties valuing huge, however, as yet un-estimated cost have been demolished or at least damaged. The collapse of the health and security systems in these areas was the fundamental cause of this huge catastrophe. On the other hand, some 1,200 people have lost their lives in Israel, mostly during the initial incursion of the Hamas. Prominent political scientists have termed the on-going conflict unprecedented since the ‘Yum Kippur War’ of 1973, in terms of both intensity and scope. However, in result of efforts made by numerous quarters, a 4-day pause in fighting was decided on November, 24: an understanding that lead to release of 13 Israeli captives, 10 Thais and 01 Pilipino by Hamas and 39 Palestinian prisoners by Israel, as well. Despite these positive developments, Israeli authorities keep-on reiterating that fighting will re-start after the mutually- agreed pause. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel keeps on claiming bluntly that war will not stop until all the Israeli objectives are achieved. Without mincing the words, he precisely highlights two aims; the release of all the captives and the eradication of Hamas. Meanwhile, the UNO has stressed for a truce leading to a permanent ceasefire highlighting that ‘Palestinians in Gaza face dire humanitarian conditions’. A number of countries welcomed the truce and exchange of captives; however each-one of them stressed for a sustainable ceasefire and long-term peace.
The sudden emergence of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war has placed the numerous Arab governments in a difficult situation. A number of Arab countries had either entered or were in the process of signing normalization agreements with Israel; which would have contributed to regional security. However, the eruption of Hamas-Israel crises ab-initio in the region have made the Arab populations emotional and they want to join the on-going conflict whereas their respective governments are in a state of perplex. The confusion of the Arab rulers will take time to subside and enable them to decide clearly regarding the further course of action.
The displacement of millions of Palestinians has also placed Egypt and Jordan in a difficult situation though they have absorbed lacs of Palestinians in the past. To be honest, it seems justifiable because beyond a certain point, any system starts crumbling and unable to bear the burden. Particularly, Egypt is fearful of Palestinians arrival, not only due to logistic issues, but two political reasons as well: (1) Hamas fighters could enter Egypt and trigger a fresh war in Sinai by launching assaults on Israel; and (11) The Hamas fighters could make their way into Egypt endangering the dictatorship of Abdul Fatah el-Sisi by supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. Being apprehensive of their attitude and past history, Egypt has allowed only 1,100 Palestinians to cross into its borders. The other 1.5 million persons uprooted from Gaza, approximately 70% of the territory’s population, have nowhere to go and continue facing increasingly difficult living conditions and security risks.
The present Israel-Hamas warfare will affect all the three levels of politics i.e. local, regional and international. First of all, the prestige of PM Netanyahu’s right-wing government in Israel has been seriously damaged. The incumbent premier’s failure to pre-empt the attack will damage his reputation and his political clout as ‘Mr: Security’ will lose his appeal in Israel. Secondly, the relationship between Washington and Tel Aviv will improve which previously has been quite cold. So much so, that Netanyahu had not been invited to visit the White House while he was in the US for attending the UNO’s General Assembly session. However, immediately after the outbreak of Israel-Hamas conflict, President Joe Biden arrived in the Israeli capital to express as well as demonstrate the American support. The US President also ordered dispatchment of a military fleet to Israel and an impressive material assistance is in the pipe-line. The US has also indicated “to work with Israel to strengthen security and defense co-operation”. Thirdly, the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel pushed by the US since long, as a part of the broader strategy to bring the Arab countries closer to Israel, will be placed on the back-burner. This scheme of things was likely to change the geo-political pattern of the Middle East, isolate Iran, and check and balance China. Now, it will be hard to make a break-through in the short-term. Finally, the US-backed ‘India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor’ (IMEC), the alternate transit route linking India with Europe will be obstructed; for a reasonable time to come.
The Israel- Palestine conflict has impacted China both positively and negatively. It seems favorable for China that the US efforts to draw Arab countries to Israel have dashed to the ground, at least in the short run. The on-going round of conflict has exposed the difference of opinion between the Arab world and the West over the Israel-Palestine issue. The West stands by Israel through thick and thin while the Arabs sympathize with Palestine. The situation suits well to China which has been trying to penetrate the Middle East since long. On the other hand, Israel has received negative vibes from China whereas it had hoped comfort and sympathy from her. Also, there have been a large number of postings on Chinese social media expressing support for Hamas. Some of the conspicuous posts were deciphered by the Israeli domestic media which soured Israel’s public opinion regarding China. In due course, this impression may be reflected through Israel’s policy and attitude towards China.
Another aspect of the Israeli retaliation has been its ruinous impact on Gaza wherein around 3,90,000 jobs have been lost and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss could touch alarming figure of 12%. Poverty is likely to increase sharply i.e. between 20 to 45%, depending upon the duration and intensity of the conflict. Approximately, 45% of the housing stock in Gaza i.e.35, 000 establishments, are reported to have been destroyed and 2,12,000 units damaged by Israeli bombardment. Economic recovery in Gaza following a cease-fire will take time due to large-scale destruction and uncertain access to resources. According to the ‘United Nations Development Program’ (UNDP), ‘A sharp decline is expected in the ‘Human Development Index’ (HDI), setting the state of Palestine back by 11 to 16 years, depending upon the intensity of war’.
The last word: The Palestinian leadership needs to develop a modern and scientific approach to deal with their problems: their age-old methods will not produce the desired results.
