The KSA – Iran agreement signed in Beijing on 10 March took the whole world by surprise as no one was mentally prepared for that. However, more enigmatic was the question that when Baghdad hosted the first five rounds of talks and paved the way for the deal; why it was sealed in Beijing? The political observers declared the rapprochement between the two countries, after decades of disharmony and formal cutting of ties in 2016; a momentous development. The signatories agreed to; (i) respect the principle of state sovereignty and not interfere in each-other’s internal affairs; and (ii) activate the Security Co-operation Agreement of 2001. Obviously, the agreement will seriously harm the US-led campaign to isolate Iran; politically as well as economically. Moreover, China’s entry into the Middle East affairs, considered to be an exclusive US domain since the end of World War-II, must be worrisome for Washington. It becomes more disturbing in the background of on-going China-US competition in the economic and military spheres. The US tried to cover-up the set-back by taking the position that it could not play any role in the process because it was totally disconnected with Iran. The US quarters also noted that ‘China invests heavily in KSA and is also its top trading partner’ therefore, Beijing’s central role in the development should not astonish anyone. Despite fire-fighting efforts, Washington has not been able to whitewash the issue. On the other hand, KSA has succeeded in demonstrating its independence from the US in thought and action; and pointing towards fast-emerging realities of international politics. Actually, most of the Middle Eastern countries particularly Saudi Arabia had been of-late disappointed with growing lack-lusture behavior and ineffective policies of Washington and had started looking else-where: China was obviously the best possible alternate. Considering the US security guarantees insufficient Riyadh developed an approach that instead of hugely expansive defense systems of the US, China’s and Russia’s influence over Iran could ensure their security better. Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al- Saud considered it appropriate to stress that China was their largest trading partner apart from being important and valued in certain other areas. The Saudi minister’s advice to Washington for including the other stake-holders as well in unduly lingering-on US-Iran nuclear talks was also meaningful. Initial euphoria apart, skepticism remains, not only about Iran but regarding KSA too that if this signals a real change or both the sides are just buying time. The two have adopted a very cautious approach by setting a two-month time-frame to work-out details.
The critical analysis of the agreement reveals that in the short-run all the three parties have gained from it; however the KSA seems to be the biggest winner. The reasons can be discussed one by one; (i) Obstacles to the politico-economic transformation have been removed from Iranian side; considered to be the greatest security threat for the Saudi monarchy. Professor Badr-al-Saif, the well-known Kuwaiti political scientist; Joseph Westphal, an ex-US ambassador to the Kingdom, and; Dan Murphy of CNBC have highlighted this aspect of the deal. According to them, a ‘constant struggle’ with Iran was sapping the Kingdom’s resources and impeding its progress through various programs like ‘Vision-2030’; (ii) Saudi Arabia has been intensely engaged in a ferocious war against Iran-backed Houthi insurgents. During this savage war, more than 150,000 people have been killed as yet which included approximately 15,000 civilians as well. The agreement will certainly de-escalate the situation relieving Riyadh from an ever-increasing pressure; (iii) The looming risk for oil-supplies particularly through sea will be reduced and commercial activity between the countries will boast-up the present growth-rate of the region. Needless to say that in the recent years sporadic attacks on Saudi and Emirati vessels and energy infrastructure allegedly originating from Iran, had heightened regional tensions; and finally (iv) Opening-up of communication channels will curtail the possibility of any direct military confrontation. However, being adversaries their indirect moves and counter-moves may persist.
On the other side, Iran has succeeded in thwarting US plan to totally cut it off from the world specifically from the adjacent regional countries. Undeniably, prior to the agreement, Iran was ‘increasingly isolated over its human rights record, controversial nuclear program and support for Russia’s war in Ukraine’. Another dividend for Iran is that now KSA will halt its media to highlight the activities of Iranian dissidents particularly through its London-based satellite channel called ‘Iran International’. For years, Tehran has been blaming Riyadh for fomenting unrest in their country through this channel. Iran has also gained economically as Rial which had been devalued against Dollar by 50% due to anti-Hijab agitation suddenly surged by 12% within two days of rapprochement.
Simultaneously, the event turned- out well for China too because it created a niche for it in Middle Eastern politics which previously had been under total control of the US for decades. Through this deal, China has also emerged as a ‘peace-maker’ in the word. Washington-based ‘United States Institute of Peace’ vide its report dated 16 March has viewed that ‘amid perceived US retrenchment from the Middle East, the deal is a diplomatic win for China as it increasingly seeks to present an alternate vision to the US-led global order’. The political evaluators stress that the agreement is basically a practical manifestation of China’s diplomatic offensive aimed at providing an alternative to the US dominance in world affairs under ‘Global Security Initiative’ (GSI) unveiled at the ‘Boao Forum’ in April, 2022. After this diplomatic victory China may project its so-called ‘Peace Plan’ for the on-going Russia -Ukraine war in pursuance of the same policy. China’s emphasis on the importance of sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs has made China an attractive interlocutor elsewhere as well. It is mentionable that China is also supporting KSA and Iran in their effort to join BRICS. Same is the case with Beijing-headquartered ‘Shanghai Co-operation Organization’ which Iran is set to join and Saudi Arabia has shown inclination for getting into it. Apart from it, China being a top oil importer both from Iran and Saudi Arabia will be satisfied with emerging political stability in the Persian Gulf as it will ensure safety of its imported materials. It is also speculated that the Iran-Saudi Arabia deal can eventually set the stage for settlements of oil transactions in Yuan.
The last word: It is high time for the Americans to get alert in case they want to prolong their politico-economic ascendency in the world.
