The incumbent Indian Prime Minister Nrendra Singh Modi has been in the office for last nine years. Although, Jagat Prakash Nadda is the president of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party but Modi has been the nucleus of all the party activities for a considerably long period. Apart from being a shrewd politician, Modi has proven to be a voracious campaigner during the 2014 and 2019 elections. He plans meticulously keeping in consideration his voter’s state of mind and implements ruthlessly never forgetting the objective to be achieved. The moral or ethical aspect of his methods is questioned continuously but he hardly cares and carries-on with the pre-decided course-of-action. The next general elections in India are expected to be held in May, 2024 and Modi has already started gearing-up for the contest in his usual style.
Modi has prepared a blue-print for the micro-management of 543 Lok Sabha seats into three main sectors —–the North, South and East. Each region will be operated as a sub-entity with its individual strategy keeping in view the local and regional conditions. The party-cadres have been stressed to adopt progressive and innovative techniques avoiding the often-repeated approaches. Modi has messaged to the lower formations of BJP that the upcoming elections would primarily focus on the welfare of the disadvantaged groups therefore they should align all the governmental schemes with this intent. The BJP-led state governments have been directed to make uplift plans for the left-behinds and explore opportunities to enhance their quality of life.
Modi has also unfurled a ’05-Pillar strategy’ for the 2024-election campaign. (i) The foremost and basic focus will be on ‘Gaon’ or rural areas. Modi has ever been sensitive about the role of villages in the electoral exercise and he keeps-on emphasizing that no party can win the general elections without the support of rural voters. His argument gains strength by the fact that in the 2019-elections out of 190 purely rural constituencies BJP succeeded in 115, which ultimately enabled Modi to form the government. Modi has launched a series of countryside-oriented initiatives i.e. opening bank accounts, supplying LPG cylinders to poor women, building toilets in villages and constructing houses with government support. (ii) ‘Kissans’ or farmers have also been attributed great importance in Modi’s ’05-Pillar strategy’ and he underlines that ‘the mood of farmers decides the elections in India’. For this group, he has introduced ‘PM Kissan Nidhi’ and ‘Crop Insurance Scheme’. (iii) Modi has also included ‘corruption’ in his agenda for campaign, on the pattern of election-2019. He intends to popularize the narrative that all the opposition leaders, embroiled in different types of corruption scandals, have joined hands to oust him. He also highlights that there have not been any noticeable scam in his tenure: a point likely to influence the Indian middle class. However, it will be difficult to underplay the fact that BJP lost its state government in Karnataka on 40% commission allegations during 2023 elections. (iv)Modi is particularly concerned about minority electorates who have consolidated their votes against the BJP and in support of opposition parties. The results of state elections in Uttar Pradesh (2022) and Karnataka (2023) testimonialize Modi’s apprehensions. In order to woo the Muslim voters, he has planned to split their electoral power on caste or sectarian basis as he has been doing with Hindu votes in the past. The 162 seats of UP, Bengal and Bihar are extremely important in this context because here-in the Muslim population is in higher percentage than the national average and they are in a position to considerably impact the out-come. Efforts are being made to lure-in ‘pasmanda’ Muslims through various uplift schemes. (v) Unified Civil Code is a burning topic in India, now-a-days and Modi is vehemently in its favor on the ground that how a country can have two laws? It is against the Indian constitution and the Supreme Court has already ordered to implement the UCC. According to Modi’s calculation, the issue has the potential of swinging the ideologically neutral voters, in his favor. It will also fulfill one of the BJP’s long-cherished promises.
Side by side, there are indications that Modi will apply his time-tested policy of arousing nationalist-cum-religionist feelings of Hindu majority against minorities specifically the Muslims. To retain the Hindu support, he has preferred silence on 03-months old Manipur civil war where-in 200 killings and 600 other atrocities have taken place. Modi has continued with his ‘familiar’ and ‘enigmatic’ quietness on the sudden as well as unexpected outbreak of communal rioting in Nuh, Palwar and Gurugram………. places hardly 40-60 kms away from the Indian capital. The analysts view that ‘through his silence on government failings he transforms them into his political advantage’. Prem Shankar Jha vide his report dated August 12 in ‘The WIRE’ has commented that ‘one cannot but admire the consummate skill with which he has turned silence and enigma into his most effective political weapon’. A seasoned politician like him cannot forget that how politicization of communal hatred worked for him in 2002 at Gujarat and in 2019 during Lok Sabha elections.
Modi’s plan to change the name of country from ‘India’ to its ancient Sanskrit nomenclature ‘Bharat’ has also a political connotation…….he intends to exploit the Hindu’s emotional attachment with their ‘dharam’ and culture of distant past through this move. However, apparently Modi claims that the alteration is necessary because the word ‘India’ is a symbol of colonial slavery. Even earlier, he has tried to erase the signs of India’s Muslim and British past in his effort to ‘reclaim India’s Hindu past’. It is also being speculated that the BJP is rattled and is trying to respond the adoption of acronym INDIA by a group of more than 24 political parties ahead of the elections-2024. The legal experts insist that for this alteration, the article 01 of the Indian constitution, which deals with name and territory of the country, will have to be amended.
Modi keeps- on claiming tirelessly that India has emerged as a great political-cum-economic power on the global horizon under his leadership. His participation in international conferences is projected out of proportions through domestic media to impress the ordinary Indians. The use of G20 summit at New Delhi from September 08 to 10 for political leverage has been noticed and highlighted even by the world media. He is hell-bent to secure a seat in the UNO’S Security Council to prove his international clout and India’s expanding influence; and latter highlight it during the electoral battle. Modi also plans and then exploits different types of gimmicks i.e. landing of Chandarayan 3 on the moon; for political dividends. Repeating the history, Modi is ready to employ all forms of available weapons during the upcoming crucial election campaign.
Modi has thrived in politics mainly due to two qualities: supreme confidence and the astonishing ability to seize the moment and make it his own. Political strategist Amitabh Tiwari has correctly remarked that ‘Modi has already set the tone for BJP’s election campaign’ however he will jump into the arena, at the appropriate time with a big-bang, propagating his achievements encapsulated in the catchy slogan of ‘Reform, Perform and Transform’. According to the ‘India Today….Mood of the Nation’ survey, Nrendra Modi looks all set to return in 2024 with a third consecutive term; an honor which so far has belonged to Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first Prime Minister (1947-64) only; who led Indian National Congress to three continuous victories in 1952, 1957 and 1962. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under the headship of BJP is being projected to secure 306 seats in toto; 47 lesser than it bagged in 2019. The out-come of ‘India Today’s survey seems to be by and large correct and this result is going to impact the regional politics for five more years to come.
The last word: Modi is likely to stage a come-back. The relevant quarters in Pakistan ought to start planning accordingly.
