China is a potential super-power and there is no surprise if its President remains in the news all the time. However, the magnitude of his coverage in the world media for last few months was not a normal affair. First, he made headlines when he failed to appear at the Business Forum of BRICS Summit on August 22 to deliver a pre-programmed speech. Then, his non-attendance of G20 Conference at New Delhi held on September 9-10 prompted wide-spread speculation. Meanwhile, he avoided a series of diplomatic engagements at Beijing i.e. the annual meeting on border defense with Vietnamese authorities and a charted interaction with Singapore’s Naval Chief. It is also unclear as yet that whether President Xi Jinping will be able to attend the ‘Asia- Pacific Economic Co-operation Forum’ in the US scheduled for November. The conjectures included Xi’s health condition, a political crises or discovery of some conspiracy. Side by side, a ‘purge’ process continued: Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s removal and disappearance in July followed by Defense Minister Li Shangfu’s missing since end of August indicated trouble within the upper echelons of the Chinese leadership. If it was not sufficient, the dismissal of two top generals from ‘Rocket Force’ of People’s Liberation Army, an elite unit, set-up by Xi to modernize China’s conventional and nuclear missile capabilities, sparked variety of rumors. The government did not offer any public explanation for these successive developments to clear-up the rampant speculations in and outside China which made the situation more mysterious.
Apart from these political-cum-diplomatic developments, China has been passing through various other disturbances as well: economic recession, natural disasters, public discordance and international controversies. The Western media insists that it was ‘a bad summer’ for President Xi Jinping which reminds two earlier ‘summers’: 2018; due to economic problems, trade-war with America and a vaccine corruption scandal, and 2022; for unrest caused by ‘Zero-Covid Policy’ and ‘White Paper protests’. However, the analysts claim that the gravity of ‘crises’ this ‘summer’ is more intense: apparently the things seem to be manageable but they will get worse with the passage of time.
China has been undergoing economic recession for last few years however the worrisome factor is that despite corrective measures, the recovery is dramatically slow. The real estate sector is in shambles and the biggest property firms are courting bankruptcy, particularly the collapse of ‘Country Garden Holdings’ has jolted the market. The major developer ‘Ever Grande Group’ is struggling hard to survive. The faltering currency and reducing global demand for the manufactured goods are also pulling the economy downwards. Factory worker’s protests over low wages and bad work environment, is a routine matter. As many as 741 labor strikes have been recorded during the first half of the year, leading to factory shut-downs and relocations; mostly in Guangdong province and Yangtze River Delta. The youth is upset as the unemployment rate has increased to a record high of 21.30% meaning 1/5 of those between 16 and 24 are jobless. Torrential rains during July and August lead to floods causing dozens of casualties and evacuation of almost a million people. A feeling that a large number of rural areas were sacrificed to save Beijing from floods angered the villagers in Hebei province. People also resent China’s continuous ‘dishing-out’ of resources around the globe to enhance its influence when internally they are suffering from economic troubles i.e. the latest example is China’s generous offer to help reconstruct war-torn Syria. The public is also dis-satisfied with government’s rescue measures during rain/flood-created emergency. Then, a proposed law authorizing the government to detain people without trial for any ant-system reflection through symbols/signs caused unrest. Meanwhile, correct reporting from China has become almost impossible since August, due to ban on publishing any negative information containing statistics.
The annual get-together of incumbent and retired leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at Beidaihe, Hebei Province reprimanded Xi in ways they had not until now. The ‘gist of message’ was that ‘if the political, economic and social turmoil continues without any effective countermeasures being taken, the party could lose public support, posing a threat to its rule’. The participants viewed that Xi skipped the international conferences because of possibility of being asked direct questions about the sluggish performance of the Chinese economy. Even Zeng Quinghong, a former vice-president, who played crucially important role in expeditious rise of Xi, was critical of his ‘governance model’. The meeting reportedly left Xi frustrated who claimed in a ‘flustered voice’ that he had spent the last decade tackling the unresolved issues of his three predecessors —-Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao; a stance which ‘left his aides shaken’. President Xi also emphasized that it was the responsibility of his team to address the problems which worried the ministers and top-level state functionaries particularly PM Li Qiang who is in-charge of economy. Few analysts have linked the recent purge in ‘cabinet’ with this rebuke given by the Party-elders to Xi.
Things are not in a good shape on the external front as well. The West is not pleased with Xi for several reasons: issuance of a China’s updated map which included numerous disputed areas in that; on-going support of Russia; aggressive maneuvers in the South China Sea, and; continuous military intimidation of Taiwan. The relations with America had improved after the ‘spy-balloon’ controversy’ however two provocations by Washington marred them: President Joe Biden called Xi ‘a dictator’ and later signed a ‘security agreement with South Korea and Japan’. John Thornhill of ‘Financial Times’ pointed towards another dangerous trend: gradual de-coupling of the world’s two biggest economies. The analyst highlighted the preference of US companies to disengage themselves with China citing examples of ‘Apple’ and ‘Micron Technology’. The only silver lining was the US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s visit to Beijing last month which apparently went well and Chinese have become careful not to drive-out strategic foreign investors. Same is the case with the UK: Foreign Secretary James Cleverly’s visit to Beijing on August 30 had harmonized the ties between the two countries but the eruption of controversy over an alleged spy operating for China inside West Minister polluted the environment. China is also worried about New Delhi’s growing relations with Washington, especially its engagement in the ‘Quad’ labeled by Beijing as an ‘Indo-Pacific NATO’. According to CNN commentary dated September 8, President Xi skipped G20 conference because he did not want to add value to a major international summit being organized by ‘anti-China India’.
The experts of China’s affairs are unanimous that the county’s ‘issues’ have emerged because ‘Xi has centralized so much power around himself’. Rory Denials, the Managing Director of ‘Asia Society Policy Institute’ says that ‘the major challenges Xi is facing seem to be the ones, created by his iron grip on power’. According to her, the ‘president’s isolation’ have created dis-connect between him and the public. He further states that ‘when you make your circle of trusted advisors smaller and smaller, it is hard to get good input’. Nectar Gan, the CNN’s Hong Kong-based reporter vide her September 20 report comments that after his election for the third term, President Xi Jinping has staked China’s top ranks with ‘sycophants’ …………the on-going ‘crises of governance’ has made his judgment doubtful and dampened international confidence in his abilities. The ‘lack of transparency’ in decision-making has undermined China’s projection of its political model as more stable and efficient than western democracies. Moreover, ‘growing uncertainties among China’s ruling elite have exposed the vulnerabilities of its one-party system ——-which have only been amplified by Xi’s concentration of power’.
It is true that just at the outset of his third term, President Xi Jinping is facing certain serious issues, both internally and externally, however the western media seem to have exaggerated it. Natural disasters were not caused by him; intra-party differences and re-shuffling in governmental structure is normal in all types of systems, and cancellation of foreign visits should not be something alarming. Yes; the day by day deteriorating economic condition must be a cause of concern for him because it is the ‘foundation’ upon which the ‘edifice’ of modern China’s grandeur is resting. The charge of ‘over-centralization of power’ and its role in impairing the governance also carries weight and the President should think of decentralizing the authority to a reasonable extent. It is hoped that ‘revisions and corrections’ will take place soon.
