President Joe Biden’s election campaign has already taken, by; (a) laying the groundwork in the politically significant states, and (b) sharpening his arguments against the likely Republican candidate—-the belligerent ex-President Donald Trump. Biden keeps-on reminding the voters that the country is in a pivotal moment and he requires more time to streamline the national issues. Through a video titled ‘Freedom’ released recently, Biden claims that he has spent his first term fighting for the country’s democracy, however, MAGA (Make America Great Again) extremists are lining up to damage the USA and he needs more time to sort them out. He also stresses that the nation is in ‘a battle for the soul of America’ and this is not a time to be complacent……to save the country, he is contesting for a re-election. According to CNN, Biden’s political managers have planned to highlight Trump ‘a threat to democracy’ on the pattern of 2020 election campaign and make the coming election ‘a choice between competing philosophies of governance’ i.e. liberalism and autocracy. During his interaction with the public, he keeps on repeating the line ‘Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative’. The results of recent polls, particularly conducted by the ‘New York Times’ and ‘Siena College’, have indicated that the coming elections will be ‘a close race’ and there seems to be no clear leader. The ‘Marquette Law School’ poll held in November suggests that about 20% of voters have not yet made-up their mind and their decision will crucially affect the outcome.
In a number of speeches, Joe Biden termed Trump as an ‘autocrat’ of Russian and Chinese style who poses a threat to American democracy. On several occasions, he has found Trump’s similarity with Adolf Hitler, on two accounts: his rhetoric against immigrants and use of sub-standard vocabulary against rivals i.e. calling his opponents as ‘vermin’. Moreover, Biden out-rightly criticizes Trump’s ideas on important issues like the Economy, abortion, combating gun-violence, social security, medicines; and the Affordable Care Act. On the other hand, Biden commits to completing his schemes relating to civil rights, taxes and taxes, if he is re-elected ———therefore, he continuously emphasizes letting him ‘finish his job’. Moreover, he propagates to defend American democracy; a cornerstone of his administration. All might be good for Biden; however three factors: stalemate in Ukraine, situation of Israel- Hamas conflict and border-security situation ‘has pushed Biden into an uncomfortable place within his own party’. Another issue relates to economy: despite positive indicators the recent polls have highlighted serious pessimism regarding the economy. According to a CNN survey, 7 in 10 Americans believe that economic conditions in the US are not good.
The nomination of Joe Biden remains doubtful, however, not due to political reasons but due to his age and potential to perform. According to Jeff Mason vide ‘Reuters’ dated December 1, 2023, ‘the Democrats have no Biden back-up plan for 2024, despite age concerns’. Most of the Democrats emphasize that their party does not need a plan-B to defeat probable Republican nominee Donald Trump, whom Biden had beaten in the last election held in 2020. According to big-wigs of Democratic Party, Biden is the best- possible candidate to face the likely Republican nominee for the top slot’ otherwise ‘big-name competitors already would have entered the race’. A physical check-up has declared Biden healthy and ‘fit for duty’; just in the near past. Moreover, he enjoys a colossal lead in polls over other main contenders i.e. Gavin Newsom, Dean Philips and Marianne William. Despite all the optimism demonstrated by the Democrats, Gabriel DE- Benedetti, the New York-based correspondent of ‘Intelligencer’ vide his December 18 report has highlighted certain points—–‘The President is old, hobbled by the side-effects of a big spike in inflation, buffeted by two wars, and starting to trail in polls against an opponent whose grip on the Republican Party seems stronger than ever’. In case, Biden is unable to contest for some reason, then 435 members of the DNC will hold a special session to choose a nominee for the slot. On the other hand, multiple contenders are challenging Trump in the Republican primary race, providing the party ready-made substitutes, in case he is not in a position to contest for some reason.
BBC’s analyst Sam Cabral vide his report dated November 11 has highlighted that despite the announcement of 80 years old President Joe Biden to contest the 2024 election, the ‘national opinion polls and weak job approval ratings suggest voters may not be keen to re-nominate him’. Some sane elements of Democratic Party stress for keeping in view the other available options as well ‘expressing concern over Biden’s age, mental acuity and a series of challenges ahead, both domestic and global’. However, the evaluator preferred to end-up his report with the comment that ‘he is not expected to face a serious contest’ in case a selection exercise is embarked-upon.
The most controversial factor regarding Biden is ‘his age and capability’. A top political strategist stressed that ‘he needs to show that he is engaged and focused’ and ’has to do that continuously’. Actually, Biden’s plan to contest ‘will test whether Americans are ready to give the 80-year old Democrat, already the oldest US President ever, another five years in office’. A number of commentators continue to indicate that despite all favorable factors Biden’s age makes his re-election bid a historic and risky gamble for the Democratic Party. Biden’s approval ratings were stuck at just 39% in ‘Reuter’s poll’ released recently where-in serious concerns regarding his age has been raised. He would be 86 at the culmination of his prospective second-term, roughly a decade higher than the average US male life-expectancy. When it comes to Joe Biden himself, he dismisses concerns about his age clearly and confidently.
The next presidential election in the USA will depend upon the legal status of aspiring Donald Trump. In case, there is no constitutional hitch for him to become the Republican Presidential candidate, he will definitely contest and will give a tough fight to the Democratic candidate i.e. Joe Biden. Who-so-ever wins, will be on margin. If he is not allowed to participate in the contest, the Democrat candidate, most probably Joe Biden, will be able to carry the day. However, nothing can be stated with certainty, at this time. In politics, an unexpected turn of events can alter the whole scenario.
