A devastating Russian missile attack on Kyiv and Kharkiv in January exposed a complex network of international support aiding Moscow’s war effort against Ukraine. The weapons used in the assault were equipped with technology from China, North Korea, and Iran, signaling a deeper level of cooperation among these countries. Over the past two years, these three nations have become critical partners in Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine, providing military technology, weapons, and financial support. Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, more than 3,700 Iranian-designed drones have been deployed by Russian forces, with current production in Russia reaching 330 drones monthly. Plans for a new drone factory, designed in collaboration with Iran, aim to further boost this output. North Korea has contributed ballistic missiles and over 2.5 million rounds of ammunition to the Russian war effort, precisely when Ukraine’s supplies are dwindling. China has stepped up as a major financial backer, buying Russian oil and gas and providing a steady flow of critical technology, including semiconductors, electronic devices, radar-jamming equipment, and parts for jet fighters, despite Western sanctions. This substantial support from China, Iran, and North Korea has not only bolstered Russia’s capabilities on the battlefield but has also weakened Western efforts to isolate Moscow. Although these countries are not part of a formal alliance, their coordinated efforts reveal a shared objective—to challenge the existing global order led by the United States. Their cooperation encompasses economic, military, political, and technological spheres, heralding the emergence of a new axis of power that is reshaping global geopolitics. While this group does not formally constitute a bloc, their collective efforts are proving to be a significant threat to Western influence. This growing axis creates new challenges for global stability, compelling Western policymakers to find strategies to manage its impact and maintain the current international order.
A Growing Anti-West Coalition
The alignment among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, while rooted in history, has gained momentum over the past decade, particularly following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. China and Russia have deepened their partnership since the end of the Cold War, with China’s share of Russia’s external trade doubling from 10% to 20% between 2013 and 2021. Russia’s technology has played a crucial role in bolstering China’s military, enhancing air defense, anti-ship, and submarine capabilities. This growing bond was solidified by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s 2022 manifesto that pledged a “no limits” partnership, advocating for “international relations of a new type,” hinting at a multipolar system free from U.S. dominance.
Iran’s ties with these nations have also deepened. It partnered with Russia to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during Syria’s civil war in 2011, and together they negotiated energy deals to help Iran evade U.S. sanctions. Since 2020, China has emerged as a significant buyer of Iranian oil, reinforcing Iran’s economy. North Korea, historically aligned with China, maintains close relations with Russia, dating back to the 1980s when Iran purchased North Korean missiles. In recent times, North Korea has allegedly supplied arms to Iranian proxy groups such as Hezbollah.
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine accelerated this convergence. Russia’s exports to Iran increased by 27% in the first ten months of 2022, and the White House claims that Moscow has shared intelligence and weapons with Iranian proxies, supporting them in UN debates. Trade between Russia and China soared to a record high in 2022, exceeding $240 billion, with Russia becoming China’s top oil supplier. This cooperation was exemplified by joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman in 2024 and proposed trilateral drills involving China, Russia, and North Korea. Despite occasional internal tensions, this emerging axis seeks to challenge Western dominance, with far-reaching implications for global stability and geopolitics.
Russia Leads the Four-Pronged Alliance
Moscow is now the central player in the emerging anti-Western axis, with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine marking a critical turning point. This aggressive move solidified Putin’s intention not only to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty but also to dismantle the Western-dominated global order. To achieve these objectives, he has strengthened ties with nations that share his hostility towards Western influence. Isolated from Western trade and investment due to sanctions, Russia has become increasingly reliant on support from its allies to sustain its war effort. This support includes ammunition, drones, and crucial technology like microchips, which have proven vital for Moscow’s ongoing campaign. However, this reliance has made Russia more vulnerable to the demands of its partners, who are using the opportunity to enhance their military and economic power.
Before the Ukraine invasion, Russia’s military collaboration with China was already eroding the United States’ edge in terms of military technology. Russia provided China with advanced weaponry, and their joint military exercises grew in scale and frequency. Russian officers with combat experience from Syria and Ukraine’s Donbas region shared their expertise with Chinese personnel, aiding the People’s Liberation Army in overcoming its lack of operational experience relative to U.S. forces. Although China’s rapid military modernization has reduced its reliance on Russian cooperation, they continue to share technology and develop joint weapons systems. For example, Russian officials revealed in February that they were collaborating with China on military applications of artificial intelligence. While Russia retains some technological advantages, such as in submarine technology, satellites, and aircraft engines, a more dependent Russia could lead to China gaining access to these advanced technologies, posing a greater challenge to U.S. military superiority.
A similar pattern is seen in Russia’s relations with Iran and North Korea. The Biden administration has termed the relationship between Moscow and Tehran an “unprecedented defense partnership.” Russia has supplied Iran with advanced aircraft, air defense, and cyber capabilities, enhancing Tehran’s ability to resist potential U.S. or Israeli military actions. Meanwhile, North Korea, in exchange for providing ammunition and military support to Russia, is reportedly seeking advanced space, missile, and submarine technology from Moscow. If these requests are met, North Korea could significantly enhance its nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles and expand its submarine fleet.
The cooperation among these axis countries has emboldened leaders in Pyongyang and Tehran. With strong backing from both China and Russia, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has abandoned North Korea’s previous policy of peaceful unification with South Korea, escalating threats and engaging in nuclear blackmail. Despite no direct evidence linking the partnership to the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, Russia’s growing support for Iran could have influenced Tehran’s increased use of regional proxies. This new axis of power is reshaping global politics and could destabilize international relations, creating significant challenges for the Western-led global order.
Eroding U.S. Influence
The growing collaboration among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea is diminishing the effectiveness of the strategies traditionally used by the United States and its allies to counter these countries. Since the onset of the war in Ukraine, China has been supplying Russia with semiconductors and other critical technologies that Russia previously obtained from Western sources, thereby diluting the impact of Western export controls. This shift has also extended to financial systems, as these nations increasingly move away from reliance on the U.S. dollar, further undermining America’s global influence. For instance, the share of Russia’s imports invoiced in Chinese Renminbi surged from 3% in 2021 to 20% in 2022, while in December 2023, Iran and Russia agreed to conduct bilateral trade in their local currencies, allowing them to skirt U.S. sanctions and anti-money-laundering measures.
The geographical proximity among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia enables them to set up secure trade and transportation networks beyond U.S. reach. Iran, for example, can ship drones and other weaponry to Russia across the Caspian Sea, which is largely outside U.S. control. In a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific, Russia could supply China with overland oil and gas, reducing China’s reliance on sea-based energy imports, which could be disrupted by U.S. naval forces. Russia’s defense industry, already at full capacity to support its war in Ukraine, could also be redirected to bolster China’s military, aiding Beijing in a potential confrontation with the United States.
This alliance among the axis members complicates Washington’s efforts to form international coalitions against their destabilizing activities. China’s reluctance to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for instance, has emboldened other countries in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East to follow suit. Additionally, China and Russia have worked to prevent Western-led efforts to isolate Iran. In 2022, Iran was elevated from observer to full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a predominantly Asian-focused regional body, and later received an invitation to join the BRICS group, which China and Russia view as a counterweight to Western influence. Despite Iran’s contentious regional activities and nuclear ambitions, its involvement in these organizations grants it legitimacy and the potential for increased trade.
The axis members also share common narratives to challenge U.S. positions on the global stage. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, China, Iran, and North Korea either defended Russia or avoided criticizing its actions, often blaming NATO for provoking the conflict. Similarly, after Hamas’s attacks on Israel in October 2023, Iran used state and social media to support Hamas, criticize Israel, and accuse the United States of enabling Israeli military responses. Russian and Chinese media echoed these narratives, presenting the United States as a destabilizing force. This coordinated messaging resonates in regions like Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, further undermining Washington’s ability to lead international coalitions against the axis’s destabilizing behavior. The repeated use of these narratives across multiple platforms increases their persuasiveness, signaling a serious challenge to U.S. influence on the global stage.
The Emergence of a Dual Global System
Global orders often mirror the priorities of the dominant states that establish them. The United States, for instance, has played a significant role in shaping the liberal international order, which resonates with American values and strengthens U.S. influence on a global scale. This system endures as long as it benefits most of its participants. However, countries that dissent from this order face a formidable task: forming a coalition strong enough to challenge the existing structure.
Historically, efforts to disrupt the U.S.-led order have come from rogue states with limited capacity to inflict widespread disruption. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent geopolitical shifts, however, have transformed this narrative. The resulting reconfiguration has paved the way for a new axis of dissent, offering a focal point for nations dissatisfied with the current order. This burgeoning axis has the potential to lead to a world with competing power centers, where the probability of conflict rises as these dual orders become more established and competitive.
In the past, overlapping global orders have often precipitated wars, particularly when they cross geographical boundaries. Conflicts typically arise due to territorial disputes, protection of national interests, or threats to regime stability. Studies indicate that periods with a single prevailing order, like the 19th-century Concert of Europe or the post-Cold War era, experienced fewer conflicts compared to periods with multiple competing orders, such as the multipolar world between the two World Wars or the Cold War’s bipolar system.
Recent events have demonstrated the instability that can emerge from conflicting global orders. Hamas’s attack on Israel, Azerbaijan’s forcible seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh, and rising tensions between Serbia and Kosovo all illustrate the potential for escalation. Even the recent coups in Myanmar and across Africa’s Sahel region, driven primarily by internal factors, seem linked to shifting global dynamics. Where coup plotters once faced severe repercussions, they now may find support from Beijing or Moscow if they sever ties with the West.
The continued evolution of this new axis could lead to greater instability. Though most of the collaboration among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia has been bilateral, expanding into trilateral or quadrilateral cooperation could magnify their disruptive capacity. Other countries that resist the U.S.-led system, like Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, might also align with the axis, intensifying the challenge to the United States and its allies. This potential expansion underscores the growing difficulty in maintaining the existing global order, indicating a complex and potentially turbulent future.
U.S. Strategy to tackle the Axis
The current U.S. national security strategy identifies China as the top threat, with Iran, North Korea, and Russia following closely behind. While this focus on individual threats is understandable, it fails to capture the broader implications of these nations acting in unison. Addressing the challenges posed by this emerging axis of revisionist states requires a comprehensive strategy that goes beyond disrupting their coordinated efforts. It must also aim to reinforce the appeal of the existing international order to counter their growing influence.
Given the interconnected nature of these threats, Washington cannot afford to view them as isolated issues. Ignoring Russian aggression in Europe while concentrating solely on China’s rise in Asia could be a significant miscalculation. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown that a united Western response can be undermined, suggesting that Russia’s success could embolden other axis members, such as China. To prevent this, the United States needs to bolster its national security resources, engage in more robust diplomacy, build new alliances, and take a more proactive role in global affairs.
Attempts to split the axis are unlikely to succeed. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, some strategists suggested aligning with Russia to balance China, while others considered forming a partnership with China against Russia. These approaches are now outdated, as the emerging axis of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea is bound by a shared disdain for Western dominance. The United States must recognize that grand strategic gestures are unlikely to break this alliance. Instead, the best course is to manage the threat through a combination of diplomacy, security, and engagement.
The competition between the West and the axis is unlikely to manifest in clearly defined political, military, or economic blocs. Both sides will vie for influence across the globe, especially in key “global swing states” such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey. These nations could determine the future direction of the international order. U.S. policymakers should focus on keeping these countries aligned with the existing order through trade incentives, military partnerships, foreign aid, and diplomacy to deter them from supporting axis members’ destabilizing activities.
Direct conflict with axis members should be avoided. The U.S. must reaffirm its security commitments in volatile regions like the western Pacific, the Middle East, the Korean Peninsula, and NATO’s eastern flank. The risk of simultaneous conflicts arising from axis members requires Western allies to strengthen their own military capabilities to ensure they are prepared if the United States is engaged elsewhere. Confronting the axis will be costly, requiring increased U.S. spending on defense, diplomacy, and strategic communications. The U.S. should prioritize support for nations on the frontlines of conflict with the axis, like Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine, to demonstrate a robust commitment to countering these revisionist states. A reduced U.S. presence could leave key regions vulnerable to axis influence and undermine the existing international order.
A New Four-Pronged challenge to the West
Some analysts tend to minimize the threat posed by the increasing collaboration among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. They argue that Moscow’s turn toward Beijing signifies nothing more than Russia’s acceptance of a subordinate role. Russia’s reliance on Iranian drones and North Korean munitions is viewed as a sign of desperation after underestimating the challenges in Ukraine. China, they suggest, supports Russia only because it failed to establish the positive ties it sought with Europe and other Western countries. Meanwhile, North Korea’s isolation remains profound, and Iran’s aggressive regional activities have only served to unite Israel, the United States, and Gulf countries against it.
However, this interpretation overlooks the seriousness of the threat. These four powers are not merely individual outliers—they represent a cohesive group united in their opposition to the existing global order led by the United States. Their collective economic and military might, coupled with their resolve to disrupt the post-Cold War system, create a formidable challenge for the West. The U.S. and its allies must recognize that the emerging axis seeks to reshape the international landscape and treat it as a significant, generational test. The task ahead is not to prevent the axis from forming but to ensure it does not overturn the current global system.
Despite this threat, the West has substantial advantages. Its combined economies dwarf those of the axis, its militaries are significantly stronger, it has a more favorable geographic position, its democratic values are broadly appealing, and its political systems are more stable. The United States and its partners should approach this contest with confidence, while also understanding the level of commitment required to counterbalance this emerging anti-Western coalition. Although the axis has already shifted the geopolitical landscape, there’s still time for the West to prevent the widespread instability and upheaval the four-power group aims to bring about. Considering this, Pakistan also needs to tread carefully and take prudent decisions in its attempt to forge relationships with members of both the groups.
The author is a PhD scholar in English Literature, a Lawyer, and an International Relations analyst.
