The ever-intensifying clash between Hamas and the Israeli government took a start on 7-October, 2023, when the Palestinian militant group launched surprise cross-border raids from Gaza reportedly killing more than 1,400 people and taking hundreds of hostages. In retaliation, Israel has been dropping bombs on their territory with air-attacks that have killed 8,000 plus and injured thousands of persons. This surprise attack, termed as ‘Al-Aqsa Storm’ by Hamas has been considered ‘unprecedented in tactics and scale’ since the 1949 Arab-Israel war. According to Hamas, ‘it was the response to Israeli attacks on women, the desecration of the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem and the on-going siege of Gaza’. President Joe Biden of the USA visited Tel Aviv on 18- October to console the Israeli population and demonstrate his country’s support for the Jew state.
Pakistan’s historical point of view has been crystal-clear on the subject: it has declined to recognize Israel since-ever as a sovereign state till the time Palestine is not established as an independent country and does not establish diplomatic relations with it. Pakistan’s commitment to the Palestinian issue has not been merely oratorical; it has supported the Palestinian governments financially as well, according to its capacity. However, the fact remains that the Hamas action which ignited the Israel’s forceful actions, seems to be unjustifiable. Moreover, Pakistan has to keep in view the hard-core facts in this connection: the United States and the European Union are its top-most export destinations and potential sources of economic aid. Washington, in particular, exerts decisive influence over Pakistan’s key multilateral donors, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Another reason for Pakistan’s noticeably low tone over the Palestine-Israel conflict is its dependence over the energy resources supplied by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), apart from their pledge to invest $50 billion in its cash-starved economy. No wander, if in this scenario, Pakistan has formally abstained from making any provocative remarks about Israel’s operations that may endanger its ties with oriental and occidental capitals. The political analysts correctly view that Pakistan’s attitude on the issue is impacted by its ‘economic crises’ as well: its reliance upon a $03 billion bail-out package from the IMF is crucial and the ruling elements do not desire any break with the American camp.
Parallel to these developments, the right-wing political parties plus civil-society activists whole-heartedly organized large-scale rallies and came out openly to exhibit their anger over the situation in the Middle East: however their influence now seems to be dwindling. If the agitation had crossed certain limits in Pakistan, it had the potential to up-set the Pakistani establishment’s settlement with the key western and the Gulf partners. The surge of demonstrations organized by few hardline rightists like ‘Jamaat-e-Islami’ (JI) and ‘Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam’ (JUI) also seems to have lost its efficacy and the army which enjoys considerable influence over religious parties, could finally urge them to cool-down their emotions. However, Michael Kugelman has correctly cautioned in his analysis titled ‘What pro-Palestinian protests mean for Pakistan’? dated October 18 that ‘the public venting, if it becomes more hostile, risks upsetting Islamabad’s relations with key western and Gulf partners’.
The Israel-Hamas war has brought a sigh of relief for Pakistan in another way as well: it will definitely place the conciliation process with Israel, which has been mounting since 2020-‘Abraham Accords’ that normalized relations between Israel and its neighboring states, on the back-burner. Pressure on Pakistan to develop some sort of ‘working relationship’ if not full-fledge acceptance will undergo a second-thought. If Saudi Arabia whose Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman was indicating till last month that ‘every-day we get closer’ to the normalization with Israel has frozen his talks; the acceptance of Israel must not be a marginal issue for Pakistan as well. The on-going Israel-Hamas battle appears to have shut-down any further discussion on potential Pakistan- Israel ties. Critics opine that the question of recognizing the Jewish state will be considerably restricted in public debate for a considerable time to come. According to some analysts, taking a pro-Israel stance in Pakistan means a political suicide, therefore how beneficial the course may be; it will be difficult to be adopted by any political or military government in the country. Maliha Lodhi, the Pakistan’s former ambassador to US and UK has already declared that ‘the time is not ripe to explore normalization’. Umair Jamal vide his article in ‘The Diplomat’ dated October 28, 2023 observed that the foreign office and the GHQ have ‘maintained a cautious tone’ which ‘indicates a co-ordinated policy response among various state institutions’. Another commentator has rightly pointed-out that ‘the escalation by the Hamas militant group hits at the heart of efforts for peace and will complicate the work of peace-makers in the region’. It is in the same background that Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani had to counter the Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen’s statement that ‘a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia means a peace with the greater Muslim world’. Pakistan’s reaction to the issue can be safely declared as ‘cautiously cut-out’ to meet both the internal and external expectations. On the contrary, some analysts have raised the question regarding the true status of Hamas and highlighted that ‘there is a debate in the media across the region that whether groups like Hamas are rogue militants or representative of a cause’? The analysis and an answer to this question can change the whole perspective of the issue.
The Hamas adventure has basically upset the trend of considering Israel with a fresh perspective and establishing formal relations with it. The previous arch rival Egypt made peace with Israel in 1979, followed by Jordan in 1994, and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco in2020. Before the Hamas adventure and Israel’s retaliation, the political observers were expecting a formal understanding between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which could possibly be followed by Pakistan in some way. However, the latest adventure by Hamas has pushed all the development in this regard to an unpredictable future. Needless to say that ‘back-door discussions’ about recognizing Israel has been taking place for years, though with ‘a risk of arousing the emotions of 250 million population that apparently have the potential of igniting large-scale anti-Israel sentiment’. Adnan Aamir has correctly pointed-out in his analysis dated October 12, 2023 vide ‘Nikkei Asia’ that ‘while countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia has pointedly blamed the conflict on Israeli policy, Pakistan has so far taken a softer approach’. Even the comments of the care-taker Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar on the situation has generally been taken as ‘too mid’. The ‘RAND’ analyst Deck Grossman noted the same aspect in the observations of the Pakistan’s government. It was also strange to read the advice of Maulana Fazal-ur- Rahman, the Chief of JUI (F) ‘to respect the human rights of Israelis’. This was not only unprecedented but surprising as well because the right-wing politicians are known for their out-right pro- Palestinian approach.
The last word: Pakistan needs to wait and see carefully which way the wind blows.
