Turkey’s most debated Presidential elections in decades were held on May 14, 2023 however, they remained inconclusive as no candidate was able to reach the 50% threshold mandatory to win the contest outright; similar to the French or Brazilian model. The incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured 49.51% votes whereas his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu bagged 44.9%. In this scenario, the third candidate Sinan Ogan emerged as a potential king-maker after getting 5.17% of the vote. Meanwhile, Erdogan’s party retained majority in the Parliament. The officially notified turnout was 88.9% which itself was a record in country’s history. However, immediately after the results, the Lira touched new lows against the Dollar and the Istanbul Stock Exchange crashed ‘on a realization that the Erdogan’s unconventional economics may not be over’. The Election Board of Turkey announced that run-off will be held on May 28.
It is pertinent to notice that Recep Erdogan had to face a very tough resistance from the opposition despite the fact that he has been at the pinnacle of Turkish politics for more than 20 years. His grip over state power has also been uninterrupted as he remained the Prime minister from 2003 to 2014 and then President up-till now. Additionally, he has been able to keep his ‘Justice and Development Party’ (APK) quite popular particularly among the conservative and religion-loving segments of the society. Nonetheless, the analysts indicate that the longevity of his regime with almost dictatorial authority has become burdensome. He is criticized to have ‘muzzled dissent, eroded rights and even brought judicial system under his sway’ taking advantage of 2016 military coup. His ‘unconventional’ handling of economy has not proven to be positive for the financial health of the country. The inflation soared to a 24-year high (85% in 2022) and Lira slumped to 1/10 of its value versus Dollar since 2014. This situation narrowed-down the business profits and disturbed the commoners due to ever-increasing cost-of-living. There is another aspect as well: the progressive and liberal groups of the society do not support Erdogan’s consistent shift from Ataturk’s secular model and lop-sided tilt towards religion and orientalism. Apart from it, the alleged mishandling of the February 6, 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake emerged as the central theme of the election campaign. This concern was not baseless as approximately 50,000 persons had died and huge damage to public and private properties had occurred. The government was harshly criticized on two accounts: slow response of the relevant agencies after the calamity and inadequate post-incident arrangements. It needs not to be stated that despite all odds, Recep Erdogan stood to the test of time.
The runner-up Kemal Kilicdaroglu, born December 17, 1948, generally referred to by his initials KK, also merits a brief mention. He was the joint candidate of a 6-party alliance called the ‘Nation Alliance’ which included the prime opposition ‘Republican People’s Party’ (CHP). He is an economist by education, however remained part of Civil Service and retired as a top-level bureaucrat. He has been elected to the parliament continuously from 2002 onwards. The hall-mark of his political strategy has been to construct ‘big tent’ coalitions. He likes to project himself as a ‘real nationalist’ and explains that ‘our understanding of nationalism is patriotism’. Unlike Erdogan, he is in favor of Turkey’s strengthened role in NATO, more West-oriented policy and securing full membership to the European Union. He is also enthusiastic about getting closer to Iran, Iraq, and Syria as well as to Central Asian states. His approach towards economic issues is poles-apart from Erdogan and wants major corrections in system envisaged by him over the years. Needless to add that he lead a very forceful election campaign and gave a really tough time to Recep Erdogan.
The months-long intense election campaign has showcased the ideological divide among the Turkish people on the issue of its ‘national character’. According to ‘AL- Jazeera’ ‘s commentary dated May 29 ‘external analysis of Turkish politics often tends to focus on the divide between political Islamism and secularism, between liberals and conservatism’. ‘Al-Jazeera’ adds that if we look at current politics in Turkey, ‘there is one ideology that is represented across the board: nationalism’. There cannot be any difference of opinion on the observation but question arises regarding the nature of ‘nationalism’. During the recent election campaign both the prominent candidates stood with the same slogan but its ‘essence’ and ‘spirit’ in each case was entirely different. Kemal Kilicdaroglu’s ‘nationalism’ was ‘largely defined by secular symbols that lean away from religion and the country’s Ottoman past’. On the other hand, Recep Erdogan ‘attempted to challenge the secular narrative of Turkish nationalism by attempting to connect state pride to an Ottoman past and an Islamic heritage’. Due to this reason, the opponents of Erdogan accuse him frequently of exploiting religion for political benefits and call him a ‘divisive figure’ in a country that was’ founded along secularist lines in the 1920s’ by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.
As per schedule, the run-off was held on May 28 wherein President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was declared the winner with 52.16% votes defeating Kemal Kilicdaroglu who secured 47.93 votes. The governments of Russia and Ukraine took the lead in congratulating him: recognition of his positive role in mediating between them. The BBC in its immediate commentary anticipated that Erdogan will continue playing active role in international affairs ‘looking increasingly to the East while remaining a member of the West’s NATO defense alliance’. Yes; BBC has correctly predicted that the powerful Turkish leader will carry-on with NATO but it needs to be kept in view that sometimes his decisions have embarrassed the Organization as well. Two glaring examples are: blocking Sweden’s entry into the military alliance on the charge of harboring Kurdish militants and purchase of Russia missile defense system. Turkey ought to take care of the over-all mood of NATO command. Internally; the re-elected President will have to heal-up the ‘bruises’ of Turkey’s body-politic caused by intense ideology-based election campaign, rehabilitate the localities devastated by February 6 earth-quake, and control the spiraling economic crises. The title of Ben Hubbard’s report contained in ‘New York Times’ dated May 29 ‘Despite Inflation, Earthquake and Tough Race Erdogan Re-elected’ reflects the true picture of the situation. How the events will unfold? Only the time can tell. Congratulations and best wishes to Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The last word: Emotion-laden politics brings laurels in the short-run however in the long- run it may create problems. Only reality-based analysis , objective planning and systematic execution can ensure permanent triumph.
