In a recent medical study presented at the ESCMID Global Congress, alarming findings suggest that the influenza virus could potentially evolve into the next global pandemic threat. According to the research conducted by medical experts, 57% of respondents identified influenza as the most severe risk for becoming a global pandemic while 17% ranked it as the second highest threat.
The study conducted across various medical institutions in Germany also highlighted Disease X (an unidentified illness) as the second most concerning threat with 21% of experts listing it as the top priority for global health and 14% ranking it as the second highest risk.
The COVID-19 pandemic which emerged in 2019 was ranked by 8% of experts as the primary threat and 16% identified it as the second highest risk. Previous outbreaks such as the 2002-2003 SARS coronavirus and Ebola were ranked fourth with concurrent outbreaks in the Congo ranking fifth.
The World Health Organization has established a specialized branch dedicated to comprehensive planning for disease prevention focusing on potential threats to public health. Selection of these infectious diseases is based on various factors including their rate of spread, severity and other determinants.
Collaborating with experts from the same field at a global level, the researchers compiled a list of diseases capable of assuming pandemic proportions. Based on 187 responses from experts across 57 countries, the list was categorized according to the severity of potential threats.
The results underscore the severity of influenza, Disease X, coronaviruses including COVID-19 and the 2002 SARS coronavirus as well as Ebola as potentially devastating viruses for global health.
Despite advancements in medical science, the researchers caution against complacency particularly regarding influenza. They emphasize that while the seasonal flu may seem routine, its ability to mutate into new strains poses an ongoing risk. Consequently, annual adjustments to the flu vaccine are necessary to address evolving strains.
Furthermore, experts warn that a new strain of the influenza virus could spread rapidly presenting challenges for containment efforts.
The study serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing threat posed by infectious diseases urging continued vigilance and investment in global health initiatives to mitigate the potential impact of future pandemics.
