A BBC News analysis of the US -election 2024 updated on 6 March,2024 stated; ‘The person sitting in the White House’s Oval office has a big influence on people’s lives both at home and abroad, so the outcome of this election matters for everyone’—yes; it is true. It is an exercise which effects the life of each individual living on this planet: more or less, directly or indirectly.
The present political system of the US is dominated by just two parties i.e. Democratic Party and Republican Party, therefore every president in modern times has emerged out one of them. The Democrats are liberal and stand for civil rights; and lately added to their agenda, the efforts to address climate change. The Republicans are considered to be conservative and they are also known as ‘Grand Old Party’ (GOP). The party stands for lower taxes, shrinking of the government size and strict restrictions on immigration, abortion and gun-rights. The 60th quadrennial presidential election is going to be held on Tuesday, 5 November, 2024. The eligible Americans will vote for electing the US President and Vice-president for a 04- year term commencing from 20 January, 2025. The election will be indirect as per the American constitution; where-in the voters cast ballot for a slate of members of the Electoral college; these electors then directly elect the President and the Vice-president. The President-in-office Joe Biden, who is the representative of Democratic Party, is a candidate for the next term as well. On the other hand, Donald Trump of the Republican party is in the field for re-election for a second but non-consecutive term. If both the candidates are able to obtain nomination of their respective parties, it will mark the 7th rematch in American presidential history and the first since 1956. In case, Trump wins, he will be the second president to serve a non-consecutive term: the first was Grover Cleveland. Both the aspirants have already become the ‘presumptive nominees’ for their respective parties on 5 March, but they are yet to be given the final nod by the nominating conventions. Interestingly, there is an independent candidate as well: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. His candidature reminds of Ross Perot, who contested the presidential elections in 1992 and 1996. The issues likely to dominate the election campaign are: economy, foreign policy, healthcare, education, climate change, immigration, abortion and democracy. The Americans seem to be split, as yet, that which candidate will be able to perform better in leading the country. According to a poll, conducted by ABC News using ‘Ipsos Knowledge Panel’, 36% voters preferred Trump, 33% trusted Biden while remaining 31% favored neither. The recently held Reuters poll put Biden and Trump both at 36% support. Obviously, both the polls failed to indicate anything concrete.
The former President Donald Trump has scored victories in nominating contests in almost two dozen states however various judicial proceedings being conducted against him cast shadow on his political future. It is important to keep in mind that Trump is facing as many as 91 criminal cases with several expected to go for trial during the height of election campaign. The former president has insisted time and again that he will continue his campaign even if he is convicted in some case. The example of Eugene Debs is often quoted in this connection who contested presidential election in 1920 from the prison where he was serving 10- year confinement for violating the Espionage and Sedition Act. However, as per numerous political observers, Trump is caught-up in a quagmire and the situation is not so simple: they insist that a judicial conviction is likely to damage his reputation, and subsequently his electability. Trump keeps on claiming that ‘criminal charges he faces are a Democratic conspiracy designed to keep him away from election victory’: an accusation repeatedly and vehemently refuted by the Justice department. Up-till now, the Supreme Court of America is clear that Trump remains eligible for the ballot despite 6 January, 2021 attack on the US capital. The august court has also agreed to weigh his claim of presidential immunity, in the coming days. Meanwhile, Trump’s vow to deal with his political enemies severely; not to defend NATO members that defaulted their contributions and encourage Russia to attack them; and stall a military aid package for Ukraine, busy fighting Russia. His pledge to enforce strict immigration laws, impose the death penalty on drug dealers, eliminate Obama’s Health Insurance and undo much of the Biden administration’s work to fight climate change; has stunned a large number of Americans.
Coming to President Joe Biden’s position: it seems that he is effected by his old age. At 81, he badly needs to convince the voters ‘that he has the stamina for another four years in office and he is more fit for office than Trump’. The economy will be the factor playing significant role in heating-up the election campaign. It is true that he was able to keep US away from the expected recession but 40-year high inflation experienced by the Americans in 2022, will have to be explained by him. The record high migrant crossings at the US -Mexico border are being forcefully criticized: Biden will have to come-up with an explanation. The stalemate witnessed in Russia-Ukraine war is also disturbing for the American voters; how Biden will satisfy them is yet to be seen. The support of Israel in its continuous conflict with Hamas in Gaza while pushing for more humanitarian aid has become controversial. Some Democrats have sharply criticized Biden for not backing a permanent ceasefire in the territory rather than a ‘pause’. Vice-president Kamila Harris’s difference in approach to handle the issue has also caused embarrassment to Joe Biden. Mention of Michigan and Minnesota is a must where Biden faced a protest vote over his support for Israel’s war in Gaza.
Last but not the least: numerous commentators have predicted that this time foreign policy issues will play important role in influencing the mind of voters. Jordan Tama and others while writing on the subject in ‘INKSTICK’ dated 11 March, 2024 viewed that ‘while foreign policy usually takes a back-seat to the economy as the primary issue voters care about, Biden and Trump may find that their plans for US engagement abroad could ultimately move the needle’.
The topic will not loose its interest till the outcome of the election. Each and every day the anxiety and suspense will continue increasing.
