Ditching the Paperwork: Why AI, Not OGRA, Should Fix Pakistan’s Fuel Crisis

Renowned Economist Dr. Farrukh Saleem’s recent op-ed, Who Decides What You Pay at the Pump?, reopened a chapter of my life that I have never truly been able to close. His article reminded me of years spent studying Pakistan’s petroleum regulatory system, engaging with the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), and trying to understand why a country blessed with talented engineers continues to struggle with transparency in one of its most critical sectors.

My interest was never political. It began as a technical challenge. I wanted to understand how Pakistan could monitor the quality, quantity, and pricing of petrol and diesel in real time—from the moment a cargo leaves export terminals such as Ras Tanura or Yanbu in Saudi Arabia, Fujairah in the UAE for ADNOC shipments, or Mina Al Ahmadi in Kuwait, until every litre reaches a petrol station in Pakistan. The question seemed straightforward: if modern technology can track an online shopping parcel to my doorstep, why can’t a nation track billions of rupees worth of imported fuel with the same level of transparency?

That simple question led me deep into Pakistan’s petroleum supply chain. International oil pricing is far more sophisticated than many people realize. Cargoes are not bought at arbitrary prices. Around the world, petroleum products are priced through internationally recognized benchmark formulas. Saudi Aramco, for example, determines prices for Asian customers primarily using the Dubai and Oman crude benchmarks. European exports are linked to Dated Brent, while exports to the United States rely on the Argus Sour Crude Index. Likewise, Kuwait, ADNOC, Nigeria, Angola, and other major producers use transparent benchmark-based pricing systems with adjustments for quality, freight, insurance, and destination markets.

These pricing mechanisms are supported by globally respected Price Reporting Agencies such as S&P Global Platts and Argus Media, ensuring that buyers and sellers operate within an internationally accepted framework. Every cargo has a traceable commercial history, every shipment follows documented logistics, and every pricing adjustment has a technical basis.

Pakistan, however, experiences a dramatic loss of transparency once imported fuel enters the domestic distribution network. During my interactions with OGRA, I became increasingly interested in another persistent problem: fuel hoarding, alongside systemic issues plaguing the quality and quantity of petrol and diesel. Consumers across Pakistan have repeatedly witnessed sudden shortages just before anticipated fuel price increases. Petrol stations mysteriously run dry as queues grow longer and supplies seem to vanish overnight. Yet, the moment new, higher prices take effect, fuel suddenly becomes readily available again. Alongside these artificial shortages, Pakistani consumers face severe issues with fuel adulteration and short-measuring, often driven by the widespread tampering of automatic shut-off nozzles.

The final price of a specific oil cargo is determined by three core variables. The formula can be structurally expressed as:

Final Cargo Price=Benchmark Price+Quality Differential+Freight Rate

The benchmark price serves as the foundational reference marker crude for the region. The quality differential applies a premium or discount to this benchmark depending on the oil’s physical characteristics, specifically its density measured by API gravity and its sulfur content. The freight rate accounts for the cost of maritime transportation, which dynamically fluctuates based on globally recognized tanker rate indexes. This is not secret knowledge; this is basic economics. Pakistan imports this oil, pays this price, and then, through corruption and manipulation, sells it to its citizens at prices that extract wealth from the poor and transfer it to the rich.

The mechanism behind this hoarding phenomenon is not particularly complicated. When international prices or exchange rates indicate that domestic fuel prices are likely to rise, some distributors and OMCs may find financial incentive to delay supplies temporarily. By withholding existing inventory and releasing it after higher regulated prices come into effect, significant profits can be generated. Whether this occurs because of operational weaknesses, poor oversight, or deliberate market manipulation, the ultimate burden falls on ordinary Pakistani consumers.

On paper, Pakistan’s regulatory framework appears comprehensive. OGRA requires Oil Marketing Companies to maintain minimum stock levels, submit inventory reports, and comply with inspection procedures. Authorities can conduct reconciliation audits using a straightforward accounting equation:

Imports+Local Refinery Production–Sales=Expected Inventory

In theory, any discrepancy should immediately reveal irregularities. In practice, however, the system depends heavily on manual reporting rather than independent verification. Inventory data are often entered by the very organizations being regulated. Audits frequently occur after shortages have already affected consumers. By the time physical inspections confirm discrepancies, market conditions have changed and the financial gains have already been realized.

The issue, therefore, is not necessarily the absence of regulations. It is the absence of continuous, automated, tamper-resistant monitoring. This realization inspired my own efforts to explore technological solutions.

Working alongside my engineer sons, I helped develop a practical feasibility proposal demonstrating how real-time monitoring could transform Pakistan’s petroleum sector. Our concept integrated GPS tracking of tanker movements, automated tank-level sensors, electronic flow meters, digital inventory reconciliation, and centralized monitoring capable of following fuel from export terminals to local petrol stations.

From a technical perspective, the system was entirely feasible. Unfortunately, my experience left me deeply disappointed. In my view, the proposal did not receive the serious technical evaluation it deserved. During one meeting, I interpreted comments made to me as a warning not to continue pursuing the project. I cannot independently verify the motivations behind those remarks, but the experience convinced me that institutional resistance to innovation can be as formidable as any engineering challenge.

Over the years, I have often reflected on those moments. My conclusion is that Pakistan’s greatest obstacle is not a lack of technology. The country possesses capable engineers, experienced IT and AI experts, and access to world-class digital solutions. What has too often been missing is the willingness to implement them consistently and transparently.

Meanwhile, countries such as India have moved steadily toward near-real-time monitoring of petroleum procurement. Government institutions, including the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) and the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), continuously reconcile procurement volumes, pricing, and market trends. Their systems demonstrate that modern petroleum governance depends increasingly on data rather than paperwork.

Pakistan can—and should—adopt a similar direction. Today, technology makes complete end-to-end visibility entirely achievable. Tankers crossing international waters continuously transmit Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals through satellites. Inland fuel transport vehicles can be monitored using GPS and geofencing technologies. Underground storage tanks can be equipped with Automatic Tank Gauges that measure inventory in real time. Artificial intelligence can detect abnormal consumption patterns, while blockchain-based audit trails can make records resistant to tampering.

In other words, the technology already exists. What remains is the determination to deploy it effectively.

Imagine a future in which every Pakistani can open a government mobile application and instantly see where the fuel at their local station originated, when it arrived, its certified quality specifications, available inventory, and the precise pricing formula used to determine the retail price. Such transparency would dramatically reduce opportunities for hoarding, adulteration, under-delivery, and misinformation.

This is not science fiction. It is simply good governance supported by modern technology. The conversation should therefore move beyond assigning blame and focus instead on building systems that reduce opportunities for corruption regardless of who occupies public office. Strong institutions are designed precisely because no institution should rely solely on individual integrity.

The Government of Pakistan now has an opportunity to transform public confidence in the petroleum sector. OGRA should introduce nationwide GPS tracking for every fuel tanker, mandatory automated tank gauging at depots and retail outlets, AI-assisted anomaly detection, digital reconciliation of imports and sales, and public access to non-commercial supply information through a secure mobile application. Independent third-party audits should verify system integrity, while meaningful penalties should be imposed for deliberate manipulation or concealment of inventory.

Such reforms would benefit every stakeholder. Consumers would receive greater protection. Honest Oil Marketing Companies would compete on a level playing field. Regulators would gain better oversight. Investors would have greater confidence in the market. Most importantly, Pakistan would strengthen one of the foundations of its economic security. After closely watching OGRA, I have written multiple times advocating to shelve this incompetent regulator and replace it with AI. Recent events prove why: the Chairman and Member Oil have just been fired over corruption allegations. The system is broken; it’s time for automation.

I remain optimistic because technology continues to advance faster than bureaucracy. One day, perhaps sooner than many expect, every Pakistani may simply look at a mobile phone and verify the quality, quantity, location, and pricing history of every litre of fuel—from Ras Tanura, Yanbu, Fujairah, or Mina Al Ahmadi, all the way to the local petrol station. That day will not merely represent technological progress. It will represent something far more valuable: transparency, accountability, and renewed public trust in Pakistan’s energy sector.

We have the resources, we have the talent, and we have the intelligence. What we lack is the courage to face the truth and the determination to act upon it. May Almighty Allah God have mercy on Pakistan. May the truth finally set us free.