Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a unique project for global connectivity, transregional commerce and trade, and development of infrastructure, was announced by President Xi Jinping in 2013. It comprises Six Corridors that connect various regions of the world with China and vice versa. China – Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the most important corridor of BRI, which is commonly known as its Jewl and is considered a game changer for Pakistan and South / Central Asia.
Tough, CPEC is essentially a developmental and commercial project, yet it has many strategic dimensions as well. Through CPEC, Western China (Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region) will be connected to Arabian Sea / Indian Ocean at Pakistan’s southern port city of Gwadar that is located in Baluchistan. Most of the world trade, especially energy (oil and gas) supplies take place through Indian Ocean. China is also depended on the Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOCs) that initiate from Persian Gulf / Red Sea and pass through Malacca Straight to reach Chinese ports at its east coast. Chinese sustained economic development is directly contingent upon assured and uninterrupted supply of oil. Similarly, Chinese exports, through Indian Ocean, to Middle East, Africa and Europe take place through Indian Ocean. In case of any global conflict, Malacca Straight can be mined / blocked by China’s adversaries, which will have devastating effects on Chinese economic progress, which is likely to become the largest economy of the world. Such dangerous scenario was called “Malacca Dilemma” by former Chinese President Deng Xiaoping.
The CPEC, besides connecting China with rest of the world, will also allow to overcome the “Malacca Dilemma.” It will also facilitate transshipment from Gwadar port to China and Central Asia, and will promote Chinese exports to Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
CPEC, in particular, and BRI, general, has been openly criticized by the U.S., the EU, the UK, and India. Most objections pertain to lack of transparency in financing the projects and debt trap diplomacy. The U.S. Embassy in Pakistan and its Ambassador has openly criticized the CPEC. The U.S has proposed an alternate trade route called “New Silk Road.” G-20, in its last meeting held in India has also proposed “India Middle East, Africia / Europe Corridor.” The U.S. has also developed QUAD and AUKUS, as part of its Indo-Pacific Strategy to contain, encircle, and counter China’s economic growth and increasing geopolitical global influence.
The greatest challenge faced by CPEC pertains to the security of its projects and safety of Chinese engineers / worker employed on these projects. There are general concerns as well about safety of Chinese citizens, including businesspeople, teachers, scholars, students, and tourists.
Many incidents of terrorism against Chinese citizens have taken place in Pakistan in last few years. More significant incidents include an attack on Chinese Ambassador at Serena Hotel, Quetta, two attacks on Chinese engineers at Dasu hydropower project / water dam reservoir, and an attack on Confucious Institute teachers at Karachi University. Most of these attacks were either suicidal attempts or through remote-controlled explosions. In the most recent attack, on 25 March 2024, carried out through a suicidal car loaded with explosive, five Chines engineers lost their lives. This incident has shattered the confidence of project workers, though Pakistan Government has assured to punish the perpetrators.
There are many terrorist groups and their splinter affiliates operating in Pakistan. Most of them have their bases in Afghanistan. Tehrik i Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baluchistan Liberation Army (BAL) are main anti Pakistan militant groups that have claimed responsibility for such attack in the past. In fact, there are many smaller groups, as well, that carry out such acts with varying motivations, including as a transborder crime for financial gains. As mentioned above, the US, EU, the UK, and India have openly opposed CPEC. There are other countries in the region, which consider that development of a large port at Gwadar and associated infrastructure in the shape of an oily refinery and trans-shipment facility at Arabian Sea / Indian Ocean is detrimental to their economic and strategic interest in.
Afghanistan, over the last four decades, has become hub of global terrorism. During Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, in 1980s, more than six million Afghan refugees had crossed over to Pakistan. Now, third generation of these refuges still resides in Pakistan. Indeed, they have blended themselves into Pakistan’s socio-political and socio-economic fabric. Many more came over to Pakistan as a result of the U.S. and NATO occupation of Afghanistan and the civil war that prevailed there for 20 years.
During this occupation, India had developed very extensive diplomatic cum intelligence network in Afghanistan by establishing eight Consulates. Indian intelligence agencies have enjoyed deep contacts and relations with various Afghan factions, especially with non-Pashtuns, and Tajiks (commonly called Shamalis / Northens). TTP and BLA have safe sanctuaries inside Afghanistan. TTP enjoys ideological. Religious, and ethnic affinity with Taliban as most of them belong to former ‘Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)’ that is adjacent to Afghanistan. After Taliban’s taking over of Afghanistan, on U.S. /NATO forces’ withdrawal in 2022, all such terrorist groups feel more emboldened.
Pakistan has complained repeatedly with Taliban Government that it must stop TTP and BLA to use Afghanistan as their operational / logistics base. It has also demanded that Afghanistan should expel them from Afghanistan and hand them over to Pakistan so that they can be prosecuted for the crimes perpetrated by them. Anyhow, Taliban have refused to do that. Instead, Taliban have proposed that Government of Pakistan should negotiate with TTP and BLA try to accommodate their grievances. Pakistan has refused to entertain such suggestion and has reiterated its stance that all such groups must surrender to Pakistan and denounce terrorism completely. Otherwise, they will be punished for their crimes and atrocities.
The U.S., the EU, the UK, and India do not wish to see political stability prevailing in Pakistan because such stability is a prerequire to economic progress and development. CPEC is a recipe to economic development. That is why it is called a ‘game changer.’ In addition to hindering Pakistan’s economic progress, these countries also want to encircle and contain Chiana, in order to retard its economic progress and deny expansion in its diplomatic, political, and strategic influence in the region. Thus, their belligerence and enmity against CPEC.
In prevailing environment of regional and global conflict through proxies, it is much easy and more economical to use non-state actors / elements for carrying out terrorist activities. Hence, employment of TTP, BLA and their affiliated groups against Pakistan, CPEC, and China.
Pakistan and China should enhance their joint efforts to undertake extremely robust actions against all terrorist groups that are conducting such activities. Zero tolerance should be the hallmark. China and Pakistan should establish / organise a “Joint Counter Terrorism Force” for combined planning, coordination, intelligence sharing, and execution of operation.
China and Pakistan should also establish a “Joint Counter Extremism and Counter Terrorism Center” that should focus on research and analysis for enhancing guaranteed security of CPEC projects and ensuring safety of Chinese citizens in Pakistan. While doing so, Pakistan and China should jointly demand that Afghanistan must stop all sorts of protection, facilitation, and so call hospitality for TTP, BLA and other groups that are operating from Afghanistan against Pakistan, China, and their interest. In case of non-cooperation or noncompliance by Afghanistan, appropriate diplomatic retaliatory actions must be undertaken against Afghanistan. If necessary, this issue must be raised at the regional level at SCO and at international level at the UN. Pakistan has already requested the UN to force Afghanistan to sever all relations with terrorist groups and ensure that Aghan soil is not used for any anti Pakistan activities.
