20-KG BAG HITS RS. 3,400 – A HISTORIC HIGH

The price of a 20-kilogram flour bag has reached Rs. 3,400 tonight across Pakistan, marking the highest price in the country’s history and confirming the systemic collapse of the flour supply chain*

What began as a price fluctuation has become a full-blown food security crisis. Our 11-day investigation across Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar and Quetta has uncovered a single root cause and ten cascading failures.

*Root Cause:* Against a sanctioned daily quota of 15,000 tons, the Punjab Food Department is releasing only *3,500 tons – 1,500 tons for Lahore Division and 2,000 tons for the remaining 36 districts.*

This deliberate choke has created a daily deficit of 11,500 tons, generating an estimated illicit profit of *Rs. 31 crore per day* and *Rs. 465 crore over 15 days.*

*Current Market Status (9 PM, Oct 11):*
Item Official / Expected Rate Actual Market Rate Status
**Govt. 10-kg Bag** Rs. 1,100 Not Available **Extinct**
**Govt. 20-kg Bag** Rs. 2,200 Not Available **Extinct**
**Private 20-kg Bag** No fixed rate **Rs. 3,300 – 3,500** Historic High
**Private 10-kg Bag** Rs. 1,100 Rs. 2,150 +95%
**Chakki Flour** Rs. 160/kg **Rs. 250/kg** +56%
**Loose Flour** Rs. 130/kg Rs. 192/kg +48%
**Tandoor Roti (150g)** Rs. 14-20 Rs. 42 +200%
Prices are rising at a pace of Rs. 7-10 per kg every 24 hours.

*THE 11 COUNTS – WITH VERIFIED STAKEHOLDER TESTIMONY*

*1. SUFFICIENT STOCK, CHOKED RELEASE*
Fact: Sindh’s current stock is 346,414 MT. After the approved import of 490,000 MT, it will rise to 836,414 MT.

*Punjab Food Secretary, Moazzam Iqbal Sipra:* “Daily release is 3,500 tons. 1,500 for Lahore, 2,000 for the rest of Punjab.”

*Sindh Food Minister, Jam Khan Shoro:* “Our stock is 346,414 MT today. The first vessel of 190,000 MT will arrive on November 5, the second of 300,000 MT on November 12.”

*PASSCO Official:* “The 3,500-ton figure is a finance department decision to save subsidy, not a food availability issue.”

*2. MILLS FORCED TO BUY AT EXORBITANT RATES*
Fact: Market wheat is now Rs. 15,600 per 100kg against the subsidized rate of Rs. 12,500.

*Asim Raza, Chairman, Flour Mills Association (Punjab):* “My sanctioned quota is 400 tons per day. I received only 55 tons from the government yesterday. The remaining 345 tons I am forced to buy at exorbitantly expensive rates from the open market. How can I sell cheap?”

*3. SHOPKEEPERS: “WE GET IT EXPENSIVE FROM MILLS”*
*Mujahid Maqsood Butt, President, Grocery Merchants Association, Lahore:* “Shopkeepers get it expensive from mills. The mill invoice is Rs. 168 per kg. We sell at Rs. 172. Government-rate bags are simply not given to us.”

*4. TANDOOR OWNERS: “SELLING ROTI AT RS. 14 IS IMPOSSIBLE”*
*Shafiq Qureshi, President, All Pakistan Naanbai Association:* “Selling roti at tandoor rates at Rs. 14 is impossible. Flour at Rs. 170 per kg means flour cost alone is Rs. 25.50 for a 150-gram roti. Add gas, labour and rent, total cost is Rs. 41.”

*5. WEIGHT FRAUD: FOUR ROTIS NEEDED INSTEAD OF TWO*
Finding: Tandoors selling at Rs. 14 are serving 75-82 gram rotis instead of 150 grams.

*Muhammad Boota, Daily Wage Labourer (Rs. 1,200/day):* “Even after eating four rotis instead of two, hunger does not end. When the price is fixed, the weight is made extremely low.”

*6. THREE MEALS A DAY HAS BECOME DIFFICULT*
*Bushra Arain, President, Pakistan Mazdoor Mahaz:* “Three-time roti has become difficult. 68% of 100 labour families surveyed have reduced from three meals to two. A family of five needs 45 rotis. At Rs. 40 per roti, that’s Rs. 1,800 per day. Average wage is Rs. 1,200.”

*7. SALE OF SUBSTANDARD, ADULTERATED FLOUR AT HIGH PRICES*
*Lab Report No. 1124/2026, Food Testing Lab, Lahore:* “30% of 30 samples failed. Moisture 15.2% against standard 12%.”

*Dr. Javed Iqbal, Gastroenterologist, Civil Hospital, Karachi:* “27% increase in gastroenteritis in 14 days due to fungus-infected flour.”

*DC Quetta:* “Among 1,500 bags recovered after arresting 24 dealers in Hazarganji, Double Road and Sariab, 600 bags were substandard and adulterated.”

*8. FEAR OF FURTHER ESCALATION BEFORE NOVEMBER IMPORT*
*Haris Sulehri, Commodity Trader, Karachi:* “There is fear of further intensification before the possible wheat import in November. This 35-day window is a golden period for hoarders.”

*9. MYSTERIOUS SILENCE OR COLLUSION?*
Public Question: “Is it mysterious silence or collusion of federal and provincial governments, Food Department and administration? For 15 days prices rose from Rs. 135 to Rs. 192, but administration was silent. Then only 24 small shopkeepers were arrested in Quetta.”

*10. GOVERNMENT-RATE BAGS HAVE VANISHED*
Survey: 50 shops across 4 cities – Availability of government bags is 0%.

*Consumer, Peshawar:* “I went to six shops for a government 20-kg bag. All said ‘finished’. The same shop then offered me a private 15-kg bag at Rs. 2,500.”

*11. ARBITRARY PRICING FOR PRIVATE AND CHAKKI FLOUR*
*Haji Liaquat, President, Chakki Owners Association, Lahore:* “There is no official rate for us. We buy wheat at Rs. 15,600 and electricity at Rs. 65 per unit. So we charge arbitrary rates of Rs. 250 per kg.”

*PUBLIC RAISES SERIOUS QUESTIONS FOR ADMINISTRATION*

1. Who authorized the 3,500-ton release formula?
2. Where did the 350,000 bags from the 3,500-ton release go?
3. Why was there no official rate list for private and chakki flour for 15 days?
4. Where was the administration while prices rose 48% in 7 days?
5. Why were only 24 small dealers arrested in Quetta while mills were untouched?
6. Where is quality testing for adulterated flour?
7. Where is direct subsidized flour for 22,000 tandoors?
8. How can a labourer earning Rs. 1,200 afford Rs. 1,800 per day for roti?
9. Why was the November import plan kept vague?
10. Where is the Rs. 465 crore generated from the artificial shortage?

*POSITIVE STEPS TAKEN BY PM & CM PUNJAB*

*Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif:*
– First vessel (190,000 MT) arriving November 5, second (300,000 MT) November 12, taking Sindh stock to 836,414 MT
– Rs. 18 Billion subsidy approved to ensure mills get wheat at Rs. 12,500
– PM Flour Crisis Monitoring Cell to publish daily dashboard at 6 PM

*Chief Minister Punjab Maryam Nawaz:*
– Release increased from 3,500 tons to *12,000 tons daily* from October 12
– 80% Government Bag Rule: Every mill must produce 80% as government bags (10-kg at Rs. 1,100, 20-kg at Rs. 2,200)
– Fixed Rate List (Effective Oct 12): Private 10-kg Max Rs. 1,450, Private 15-kg Max Rs. 2,150, Chakki Max Rs. 165/kg
– Direct Tandoor Quota: 22,000 tandoors to get flour at Rs. 110/kg to provide 150-gram roti at Rs. 20
– 3 mills sealed in Sahiwal and Faisalabad today
– Mazdoor Roti Card: 30 rotis per day at Rs. 10 per roti
– 50 mobile testing vans deployed

*CM Punjab on Rs. 3,400 Bag:* “A 20-kg bag price of Rs. 3,400 is unacceptable. From tomorrow, the 12,000-ton release and 80% rule will be enforced. Anyone selling at Rs. 3,400 will be sealed.”

*VERDICT*

The Rs. 3,400 bag is not a market anomaly. It is the mathematical outcome of releasing only 23% of the required wheat.

*Minute Mirror will verify tomorrow at 10 AM: Has the government 20-kg bag at Rs. 2,200 returned to shops? Has the private 20-kg bag fallen from Rs. 3,400 to Rs. 2,866? Has the 12,000-ton release actually happened?*

Until then, tonight’s truth remains: The government bag is extinct, the private bag is Rs. 3,400, and the labourer is asking where his three meals went.