America’s midterm verdict: inflation, Iran war and immigration backlash challenge Trump

Democrats capture control of both chambers of Congress as voter frustration over rising living costs, military intervention in Iran and immigration enforcement reshapes the political landscape

By Zahid Mazhar

NEW YORK: The 2026 US midterm elections have delivered a significant political setback to President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, with Democrats winning control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The November 3 vote has reshaped the political landscape in Washington and sent a strong message about public sentiment towards the Trump administration’s domestic and foreign policies.

The results reflect more than a shift in congressional power. They offer a glimpse into the growing concerns of ordinary Americans, many of whom had expressed frustration over rising living costs, aggressive immigration enforcement and the war with Iran in the months leading up to the elections.

Conversations with people across the United States ahead of the vote repeatedly highlighted three major concerns: affordability, immigration and the consequences of America’s military involvement in the Middle East. While these issues were debated throughout the campaign, the election results suggest that public dissatisfaction had become a significant political challenge for Republicans.

The economy and cost of living: The biggest concern

As in most American elections, the economy remained central to voters’ decisions. Despite Trump’s campaign promises to bring down prices and improve household finances, many Americans continued to struggle with the cost of groceries, housing, healthcare, utilities and transportation.

For ordinary households, the debate was not simply about economic growth or stock market performance. It was about whether their paychecks could keep up with everyday expenses.

The public mood before the elections reflected a growing gap between the administration’s economic messaging and people’s personal experiences. This frustration was also reflected in post-election surveys. According to CBS News exit polling, around 89 per cent of voters considered the cost of living a major or crucial factor in their decisions.

The results indicate that economic dissatisfaction was not confined to Democratic voters. Concerns about affordability crossed party lines, making it difficult for Republicans to persuade voters that the administration’s economic policies were delivering the promised relief.

The Iran war: Foreign policy becomes a domestic political issue

Another defining issue of the 2026 midterms was the war with Iran. Traditionally, foreign policy has played a less prominent role than domestic issues in congressional elections. This time, however, the conflict became an important part of the political debate because its consequences were being felt inside the United States.

Before the elections, many Americans questioned why the country was involved in another major military confrontation in the Middle East. Concerns included the financial cost of the war, the safety of American troops, the possibility of a wider regional conflict and the potential impact on global oil supplies.

For ordinary consumers, the conflict was closely linked to energy prices and household expenses. Any disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could push fuel prices higher, adding further pressure on families already struggling with inflation.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted ahead of the elections found that 55 per cent of Americans believed the war with Iran was not worth its cost. Exit polling also indicated that voters who considered the war an important issue were more likely to support Democratic candidates.

The conflict was not the single biggest issue for most voters, but it amplified economic concerns and raised questions about the administration’s foreign policy priorities.

Immigration: Support for border security, concerns over enforcement

Immigration remained another major issue shaping the political debate. Trump had made curbing illegal immigration, securing the southern border and deporting undocumented migrants central promises of his political agenda.

His supporters viewed tougher enforcement as necessary to protect national security, uphold immigration laws and control illegal border crossings. For many Republican voters, the administration’s approach represented the fulfilment of a major campaign commitment.

However, public opinion was more complicated than a simple division between support and opposition to immigration enforcement.

Conversations with Americans before the vote revealed a distinction between supporting secure borders and endorsing every method used to enforce immigration laws. Concerns over mass deportations, family separations, detention practices and the conduct of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) generated criticism among sections of the public.

Many Americans support enforcing immigration laws but also believe that deportation procedures should respect due process and basic human rights. This distinction created a political challenge for the administration, particularly among independent and undecided voters.

Republicans continued to retain support among voters who prioritised immigration enforcement, but dissatisfaction with the administration’s broader approach limited its ability to turn the issue into an unambiguous electoral advantage.

A political message for Trump and a test for Democrats

The Democratic victory in both chambers of Congress represents a major shift in Washington. It will give the opposition greater influence over legislation, federal spending, congressional investigations and oversight of the administration.

For Trump, the results mean that the remaining two years of his presidency could become more politically difficult. A Democratic-controlled Congress can challenge his legislative agenda, scrutinise executive actions and demand greater accountability from the administration.

However, the outcome does not remove Trump from office or end his constitutional authority as president. It changes the political balance of power and makes cooperation with Congress more important.

The election is also a test for Democrats. Their victory was built in part on public dissatisfaction with the administration, but voters will now expect them to deliver meaningful solutions on affordability, healthcare and other domestic concerns rather than simply oppose the president.

The broader message of the 2026 midterms is that American voters judge political leadership not only by campaign promises but by their impact on everyday life. Foreign policy becomes a domestic issue when it affects fuel prices, public spending and national security. Immigration policy becomes a wider political question when concerns about border security intersect with civil liberties and the treatment of families.

The issues that dominated conversations before the elections have not disappeared with the announcement of the results. Inflation, the cost of living, the Iran conflict and immigration remain unresolved challenges. What has changed is the political balance in Washington and the pressure on both parties to respond to public expectations.

As the United States moves towards the 2028 presidential election, the midterm results could prove to be an important turning point. For Trump, the challenge is to restore public confidence and govern with a divided Washington. For Democrats, the challenge is to turn an electoral victory into tangible improvements in people’s lives.

Ultimately, the message from American voters is clear: political promises matter, but their consequences matter more.

The writer is Senior Broadcaster and analyst associated with National and International media outlets.