Experts warn of possible space conflict within five years

A conflict in space could emerge by 2031 as countries develop capabilities to threaten satellites and other orbital infrastructure, an expert at King's College London has warned.

A conflict in space could emerge by 2031 as countries develop capabilities to threaten satellites and other orbital infrastructure, an expert at King’s College London has warned.

Dr Julia Balm, co-director of the Freeman Air and Space Institute at the university, said the growing number of satellites and advances in their capabilities could increase the risk of conflict in orbit.

“If we’re looking at the number of satellites proliferating in orbit and the capabilities that are growing in both scale, but also in their technical capacity […], we are looking at conflict emerging not only in the domain, but in the next five years,” Balm said.

Satellites support services including communications, navigation, weather forecasting and financial networks. Disruption to these systems could have widespread economic and social consequences, although the scale would depend on the systems affected and the duration of any outage.

Commercial space companies are also expanding into defence-related work as governments focus more on security in orbit.

Astroscale, founded in 2013 to address the problem of orbital debris, has since taken on defence-related projects. Its UK subsidiary is working on the Orpheus mission for the British Ministry of Defence, which is intended to improve space-weather intelligence and help protect defence communications, navigation and other critical systems.

Orbit Fab, a company developing in-orbit refuelling technology, is also mentioned in connection with UK defence plans. The specific nature and status of any collaboration with the Ministry of Defence should be confirmed before publication.

The European Space Agency and national governments are also exploring technologies with both civilian and military applications. The agency’s specific role in the projects cited should be clarified.

Russia’s Cosmos 2553 satellite has drawn scrutiny from US officials and analysts over suspected links to a programme to develop a nuclear anti-satellite weapon. Moscow has said the satellite is intended for research, while US concerns about the programme remain a matter of security assessment.

Russia has also been accused of manoeuvring a military satellite close to ICEYE X36, an Earth-observation satellite whose imagery has supported Ukraine. The date, circumstances and source of that allegation should be established.

China has tested the Shenlong robotic space plane, which can manoeuvre in orbit. Any claim that it has captured other objects should be supported by specific evidence and attributed to a named source.

In September, the United States publicly acknowledged that it had deployed “on-orbit space control weapons”, according to Air Force Secretary Troy Meink. He did not disclose details of the systems or how they operate.

The United Kingdom has also expanded its military focus on space. The claim that the Royal Air Force has established its first dedicated space squadron should be checked against an official source before publication.