Germany raises alarm over possible US tariff hikes despite midterm election results

BERLIN: Germany has warned its exporters to prepare for possible increases in US tariffs as economic officials and analysts expect Washington to maintain its protectionist trade policies despite political changes following the American midterm elections.

BERLIN: Germany has warned its exporters to prepare for possible increases in US tariffs as economic officials and analysts expect Washington to maintain its protectionist trade policies despite political changes following the American midterm elections.

Gabriel Felbermayr of the German Council of Economic Experts has cautioned that the changing political landscape in the United States is unlikely to bring an immediate shift in the administration’s trade approach. He said a politically divided or constrained Washington could continue relying on executive powers and presidential decrees to pursue its economic agenda.

Speaking on Wednesday during the presentation of the five-member council’s annual report, Felbermayr warned that trade tensions could intensify early next year as important policy deadlines approach, particularly those involving China.

He said the situation could become more challenging for German exporters as early as the beginning of 2027 with the possibility of wider trade friction affecting European economies.

China-related deadlines raise concerns

German economic experts are particularly concerned about upcoming deadlines linked to US trade policy towards China. Any escalation in tariffs or related restrictions could create additional pressure on European businesses even if they are not directly involved in the US-China trade dispute.

The warning comes after German exports to the US had shown signs of improvement over the previous two to three months. Felbermayr noted that Germany had partly benefited from growing demand linked to the artificial intelligence boom.

However, he cautioned that renewed tariff pressure could weaken this positive trend and slow exports to one of Germany’s important overseas markets.

German industry faces growing uncertainty

The latest assessment highlights increasing concerns among German industrial and business sectors about the long-term direction of US economic policy.

Economic analysts increasingly view the America First approach as a lasting feature of Washington’s industrial and trade strategy rather than a temporary political measure.

Against this backdrop, German exporters may need to strengthen their resilience by exploring additional international markets and reducing dependence on trade routes vulnerable to sudden policy changes.

Berlin’s warning reflects wider European concerns that renewed US protectionism could disrupt trade flows, weaken export growth and create fresh uncertainty for manufacturers in the months ahead.