India expects weaker August monsoon raising concerns for crops

India is likely to receive below average rainfall in August after recording near normal monsoon rains in July, according to the country’s weather department. The forecast has raised concerns about crop production and economic activity because millions of farmers depend on seasonal rainfall for agriculture.

The India Meteorological Department said rainfall in August is expected to remain below 94 percent of the long period average. Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the combined rainfall for August and September, which make up the second half of the monsoon season, is also expected to stay below the long term average.

The annual monsoon is vital for India’s economy, providing nearly 70 percent of the country’s yearly rainfall. It replenishes reservoirs, rivers and groundwater supplies while supporting agriculture in a country where almost half of all farmland relies entirely on rain instead of irrigation. Farming remains the primary source of income for about half of India’s population.

Weather officials said moderate El Nino conditions are currently present in the Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen in the coming weeks. The phenomenon could become strong by September, increasing the likelihood of reduced rainfall across parts of India and other areas of Southeast Asia.

El Nino is a recurring climate pattern caused by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It often disrupts weather systems around the world and has historically been linked to weaker monsoon seasons in India. Previous El Nino years have brought drought conditions that damaged crops, reduced agricultural output and forced the government to restrict exports of certain food grains.

Despite the weaker outlook for August, rainfall improved significantly during July. India received one percent more rain than the long period average during the month, helping reduce the overall seasonal rainfall deficit. Since the monsoon began on June 1, the deficit has narrowed to 12.6 percent after reaching 35.4 percent at the end of June.

The stronger rainfall in July also helped farmers recover from delays in planting caused by a slow start to the season. Agricultural experts say the improved weather allowed growers to speed up sowing in many regions after an uncertain beginning.

However, analysts warn that below normal rainfall during August could still affect the development of crops that have recently been planted. Adequate rainfall during this stage of the growing season is considered essential for healthy crop growth and stable harvests.

Government data shows that summer crop planting was nearly 25 percent lower than the previous year at the end of June. Since then, the situation has improved considerably, with the shortfall shrinking to less than five percent as better rainfall encouraged farmers to increase sowing.

The latest weather forecast has increased attention on the remainder of the monsoon season, as rainfall over the next two months will play a key role in determining agricultural output, food supplies and overall economic performance in one of the world’s largest farming economies.