Oil prices slip despite Gulf tensions as markets focus on supply routes

LONDON: Global oil prices edged lower on Thursday as investors shifted their attention from escalating military tensions in the Gulf to the resilience of energy supplies flowing through the region’s critical shipping routes.

Brent crude futures fell 96 cents, or 1.06%, to $89.78 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 64 cents, or 0.76%, to $83.82 per barrel. The retreat came just a day after both benchmarks posted sharp gains, reflecting the market’s growing tendency to react briefly to geopolitical developments before refocusing on supply fundamentals.

Oil markets had surged on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump warned Iran of a forceful response following an alleged Iranian missile strike on a US military base in Jordan. The rally was further fuelled by fresh US military operations against Iranian targets and joint US-Saudi strikes on Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq, heightening fears of wider regional instability.

Despite the renewed military activity, analysts said traders are increasingly assessing whether the conflict will significantly disrupt global oil exports. Market participants remain closely focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that traditionally carries nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments.

According to energy consultancy Rystad Energy, around 13 million barrels of Gulf oil per day are still reaching international markets despite severe disruptions and restrictions in the region. Analysts noted that alternative shipping routes and logistical adjustments have helped prevent a complete supply shock.

Lin Ye, Vice President of Commodity Markets at Rystad Energy, said geopolitical headlines continue to trigger rapid price spikes, but such rallies often fade as investors evaluate actual supply conditions and ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Meanwhile, shipping challenges persist after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran-aligned Houthi movement’s naval blockade in the Red Sea. Even so, some cargoes, particularly those linked to Chinese buyers, continue to move through alternative channels.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said the longer alternative export routes remain operational, the weaker Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz becomes. He added that markets are increasingly adapting to prolonged disruptions, reducing the lasting impact of geopolitical shocks on crude prices.

Although volatility remains elevated, traders are now placing greater emphasis on uninterrupted oil flows rather than military rhetoric, suggesting that supply resilience could continue to shape global energy markets in the weeks ahead.