Pakistan NCA adviser warns Indian military doctrine threatens South Asian nuclear stability

Pakistan’s National Command Authority (NCA) adviser retired Lieutenant General Mazhar Jamil has warned that India’s military doctrines and strategic ambitions could increase the risk of conflict across South Asia particularly because both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons.

Pakistan’s National Command Authority (NCA) adviser retired Lieutenant General Mazhar Jamil has warned that India’s military doctrines and strategic ambitions could increase the risk of conflict across South Asia particularly because both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons.

Speaking at a workshop on nuclear deterrence and strategic stability in South Asia, organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London on October 13, Jamil criticised what he described as a dangerous ideological influence on Indian military thinking. The institute published a transcript of his address on Monday.

Jamil argued that regional stability depends on the political beliefs and strategic calculations of states, adding that diplomacy should take priority over military confrontation. He cautioned that military adventurism and attempts to establish regional dominance could have serious consequences in a nuclear-armed environment.

The retired general identified Kashmir as the central unresolved dispute between India and Pakistan. He called for a political settlement through dialogue and referred to United Nations Security Council resolutions on the issue.

According to Jamil continued reliance on military force has failed to resolve the dispute leaving Kashmir a potential nuclear flashpoint. He also criticised what he characterised as India’s regional ambitions and the influence of Hindu nationalist ideology on its political and security policies.

Jamil outlined three major lessons for regional stability. First military action cannot permanently resolve conflicts without a political settlement. Second military escalation between nuclear-armed countries can produce consequences that neither side can control. Third leaders should recognise that the belief they can manage the escalation of a conflict may prove mistaken.

He contrasted India’s approach which he described as seeking regional dominance with Pakistan’s stated emphasis on political conflict resolution, national sovereignty and deterrence.

Jamil also raised concerns about India’s growing nuclear and missile capabilities arguing that international cooperation and technology transfers had strengthened New Delhi’s strategic position without sufficient attention to arms control.

He criticised the Nuclear Suppliers Group waiver granted to India and expressed concern about its missile development programmes including intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. He also questioned the implications of Indian nuclear facilities operating outside International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards.

The former Strategic Plans Division chief said international powers should examine India’s strategic intentions more carefully rather than automatically treating it as a security provider in the wider Asia-Pacific region.

Jamil cited the accidental launch of an Indian BrahMos missile that landed in Pakistan on March 9, 2022, as an example of the risks associated with military command-and-control systems. He criticised India’s handling of the incident and said greater transparency was necessary to build confidence between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

He also referred to the use of dual-capable missile systems during the four-day military confrontation between India and Pakistan in May 2025. According to Jamil such developments increase the possibility of miscalculation because conventional and nuclear capabilities can become difficult to distinguish during a crisis.

He concluded that emerging military technologies inadequate confidence-building measures and the absence of effective regional arms-control mechanisms were making South Asia’s security environment more complicated.

Jamil warned that preventing further escalation would require greater strategic restraint transparency and a stronger commitment to resolving disputes through political means.

The article presents Jamil’s remarks and allegations as his views rather than independently verified conclusions.