Pakistan targets $1.5bn hybrid rice market in China

Pakistan has a major opportunity to increase its hybrid rice exports to China and could potentially secure exports worth up to $1.5 billion, according to industry experts.

The opportunity has emerged as China looks for alternative sources of non-Basmati rice amid a decline in rice trade with India. Pakistani exporters believe the changing market conditions could allow the country to expand its presence in China.

Shahzad Ali Malik, founding chairman of the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) and CEO of Guard Agricultural Research and Services, said Pakistan should move quickly to take advantage of the situation.

He said Pakistan had a competitive edge because local farmers already grow Chinese hybrid rice varieties. With a coordinated strategy between the government and private sector, Pakistan could significantly increase its exports to the Chinese market.

China is expected to remain one of the world’s largest rice importers. Its rice import demand for 2025-26 has been estimated at around 3.1 million tonnes.

India had previously been an important supplier of non-Basmati rice to China. However, changes in Chinese import requirements and non-tariff restrictions have affected Indian rice shipments.

This has created an opening for other suppliers. Pakistan is considered well placed to benefit because it already produces both Basmati and non-Basmati rice.

Pakistan also has surplus stocks of several non-Basmati varieties. These include Chinese hybrid rice and IRRI varieties that are used in China for food processing and strategic food reserves.

The hybrid rice segment offers particular potential. Pakistan uses hybrid seed parent lines imported from China. This could make it easier for Pakistani producers and Chinese buyers to maintain compatibility in varieties and quality standards.

Pakistan also has an advantage in the non-GMO segment. Industry representatives believe this could strengthen the country’s position as Chinese buyers become more selective about imported rice.

The Pakistan-China Free Trade Agreement could further support exports. Existing trade links and CPEC-related logistics may also help Pakistani exporters reduce transportation time and improve their competitiveness.

The changing market could benefit both exporters and farmers. Lower competition from India may increase demand for Pakistani rice and could improve prices.

Chinese buyers may also seek long-term contracts and assured supplies. Such arrangements could provide farmers with greater market certainty and encourage investment in rice production.

However, industry experts say Pakistan must improve its export systems to take full advantage of the opportunity. The government and private sector will need to work together on contract farming, seed quality, certification and food safety requirements.

Chinese authorities have strict standards for food safety and pesticide residues. Pakistani exporters will therefore need to ensure that rice consistently meets the required specifications.

Seed companies can also play an important role. Improved hybrid seeds could increase yields per acre while helping farmers produce rice of consistent quality.

Logistics will be another key factor. Industry representatives believe Pakistan’s ports and CPEC-linked infrastructure could help shorten delivery times and reduce costs.

Rice is one of Pakistan’s most important export commodities and ranks second after textiles. An increase in rice exports could generate additional foreign exchange and provide greater economic opportunities for farmers, particularly in Punjab and Sindh.

Malik estimated that Pakistan could increase its overall rice exports to around $5 billion within three to five years if the necessary planning, investment and policy support are provided.

He also proposed establishing a Pakistan-China Rice Export Task Force. The proposed body could include rice exporters, seed companies and relevant government authorities.

The task force could develop a long-term export strategy, coordinate with Chinese buyers and address regulatory and logistical challenges.