Pakistan’s cotton crisis deepens as yields plunge

Pakistan’s cotton crisis deepens as yields plunge

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s cotton sector is facing a deepening crisis as falling yields, weak seed quality and restrictions on importing new germplasm continue to undermine production and push farmers towards more profitable crops such as rice and sugarcane.

National cotton yields have dropped to around **14-16 maunds per acre**, compared with the **40-50 maunds** that farmers once harvested from the same land. The sharp decline has made cotton increasingly unattractive to growers, many of whom are switching to crops that offer better returns.

Shahzad Ali Malik, CEO of Guard Agricultural Research & Services, said profitability remains the main factor influencing farmers’ decisions.

“Wherever a farmer gets a bit more profit, they will naturally cultivate that crop. That is the core reason,” Malik said.

The changing cropping pattern reflects the growing problem. Cotton acreage has once again fallen short of government targets, while rice cultivation has expanded. Sugarcane has also increased its share over the years, although its high water consumption and dependence on nearby sugar mills limit its expansion in some areas.

Even the government’s current standards highlight the decline in cotton productivity. Authorities now require newly approved cotton varieties to achieve at least **25 maunds per acre**, a benchmark that remains far below the yields historically achieved by farmers.

Malik questioned why growers would continue planting cotton when competing crops can generate higher returns.

Ginning industry under pressure

The decline in cotton production is also hurting industries that depend on the crop. Malik said around **150 ginning factories have closed during the past two to three years** because of declining supplies of raw cotton.

“If there’s no cotton, what will the ginners do?” he said.

The crisis poses a broader threat to Pakistan’s textile industry, which accounts for roughly **55-60 per cent of the country’s exports**. With domestic cotton production falling, textile manufacturers increasingly rely on imported cotton to meet their requirements.

“Our cotton crop is completely struggling right now,” Malik said. “We import cotton and don’t produce our own; our textile industry is already suffering.”

International data also highlights Pakistan’s widening productivity gap. According to the International Cotton Advisory Committee’s 2025 data book, covering the 2024 harvest, Pakistan produced approximately **1.7 tonnes of seed cotton per hectare**, compared with **6.6 tonnes in China and 5.1 tonnes in Australia**.

The gap remains significant when measured in lint yield. Pakistan’s average lint yield stood at around **734 kilograms per hectare**, while China recorded approximately **2,125kg** and Australia **2,265kg.

Malik believes Pakistan could significantly increase cotton production by improving yields on existing farmland rather than simply expanding the area under cultivation.

Call for new cotton varieties

According to Malik, Pakistan has largely reached the productivity limits of its existing cotton germplasm and urgently needs access to new genetic material from other countries.

He cited cotton-growing areas in **South Xinjiang, China**, where Guard Agricultural Research & Services has observed varieties producing between **75 and 100 maunds per acre** under summer temperatures comparable to those in South Punjab.

However, Malik stressed that Chinese varieties cannot simply be introduced into Pakistan without testing. Differences in soil, climate and growing conditions require proper local trials to determine their adaptability.

“It is essential to introduce varieties yielding over 50 maunds in Pakistan,” he said, calling for a major revival of the country’s cotton sector.

Import restrictions hamper research

Efforts to introduce new cotton genetics have faced regulatory obstacles for years. Guard Agriculture says it first imported **15 Bt hybrid varieties in 2010** for experimental purposes under the Plant Quarantine Rules of 1967, which allowed seed imports for research.

Two of the imported hybrids demonstrated strong adaptability during trials conducted at five locations in Punjab and Sindh. One variety produced a yield 30 per cent higher than standard Pakistani varieties, while another delivered an 86 per cent increase, producing around 31 maunds per acre compared with 16 maunds for the check variety.

The Punjab Seed Council subsequently approved the higher-yielding variety for commercial cultivation.

However, when Guard Agriculture applied for a commercial import permit from the Department of Plant Protection, authorities rejected the request, citing the existing quarantine rules, which did not provide for commercial seed imports.

Although the Punjab government supported efforts to facilitate the process, attempts to amend the federal regulations continued for years. The company says that even after the old quarantine framework was replaced by new regulations in 2019, the requirements became so restrictive that importing cotton genetics for experimental purposes remained extremely difficult.

The prolonged regulatory hurdles have limited Pakistan’s access to potentially higher-yielding cotton varieties at a time when the country’s farmers are increasingly abandoning cotton for more profitable alternatives.

Without improvements in seed quality, access to new germplasm and farm-level productivity, Pakistan risks further declines in domestic cotton production, increasing pressure on its already export-dependent textile industry.