Pakistan’s proposed 12-province plan could take effect after 2029 polls

Pakistan's proposed restructuring into 12 provinces could be implemented after the 2029 general elections, even if the constitutional amendments needed to create them are considered next year, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

Pakistan’s proposed restructuring into 12 provinces could be implemented after the 2029 general elections, even if the constitutional amendments needed to create them are considered next year, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

The proposal, which remains under consideration, faces major financial, constitutional and administrative challenges, including the distribution of resources under the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, the allocation of water resources and the settlement of financial liabilities, the sources said.

Under the proposed plan, Punjab could be divided into four provinces, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan could each be divided into three. Sindh could be split into two, increasing the number of provinces from the current four to 12.

The sources said existing provincial governments and assemblies would continue functioning until the next general elections, even if the required constitutional amendments were passed next year. The proposed restructuring would then be implemented after the 2029 polls.

The transition would require agreement on sensitive issues involving the financial and economic rights of the existing provinces and the proposed new units.

One major challenge would be revising the NFC Award, which determines how the provinces share the provincial portion of revenue from the federal divisible pool. The current formula distributes that share among the four provinces, taking into account factors including population, poverty and backwardness, and revenue generation.

Creating eight additional provinces would raise questions about how the existing provincial share should be redistributed among 12 units, and whether the current formula should be retained or revised to accommodate the new provinces.

Water distribution would pose another challenge. The 1991 Water Apportionment Accord sets out the existing provinces’ shares in the Indus River system. Creating new provinces would require agreement on how those allocations should be divided among the successor units, or whether the arrangements should be revised.

The issue could prove particularly sensitive in areas where water availability, irrigation needs and dependence on agriculture are already sources of disagreement.

A third challenge would be the division of financial liabilities, including provincial debts, federal loans, outstanding transfers and other fiscal obligations. A mechanism would be needed to determine which new province would assume responsibility for existing debts and how financial claims and assets would be distributed.

The sources said the proposed restructuring would require extensive consultations between the federal and provincial governments and other stakeholders before it could be implemented.