Political Turbulence and Uncertainty in Pakistan

Pakistan’s political landscape has witnessed considerable turbulence over the past few months. The political rhetoric among rival parties grew increasingly bitter amid the Azad Jammu and Kashmir elections. In one of his speeches, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi spoke that system had collapsed,” prompting some journalists and political analysts, citing what they described as credible sources, to suggest that the government had only days left.

Over the past couple of days, the uncertainty surrounding decisions related to the treatment of PTI founder Imran Khan, and the developments that followed, has further stirred the political arena. Alongside political statements, a series of political meetings and interactions has also fuelled speculation. Whether it was Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visiting PTI Chairman Barrister Gohar to offer condolences on the death of his mother, or Bilawal Bhutto Zardari meeting Mahmood Khan Achakzai, journalists and analysts have been reading multiple meanings into such encounters.

Government spokespersons, however, maintain that there is no question of the government leaving office and that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will complete his constitutional term.

Whatever the reality may be, when all these statements, developments and events are viewed together, they inevitably create an impression of political uncertainty and instability.

Political uncertainty and instability are certainly not new phenomena in Pakistan. A glance at our political history reveals a long record of political confrontation, changes of government, disputed elections, judicial interventions, institutional conflicts and popular protests. It is unfortunate that, since independence, Pakistan has repeatedly faced challenges that have hindered political continuity and stability. Delays in constitution-making, weak political parties and the powerful role of the bureaucracy all contributed to unstable and short-lived governments.

The military intervention that began with martial law in 1958 left deep and lasting consequences for the country and its democratic development. From the tragic fall of Dhaka to the hanging of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, an episode widely described as a judicial murder, and the military takeovers of 1977 and 1999, Pakistan has struggled to establish a sustained tradition of political stability.

Martial laws came and went. Governments changed. Prime ministers were replaced. Allegations of electoral rigging became a recurring feature of our politics. The tragedy is that, to this day, not a single elected Pakistani prime minister has completed a full constitutional term in office.

Pakistan’s first prime minister, Liaquat Ali Khan, remained in office for nearly four years before being assassinated. He was followed by Khawaja Nazimuddin, Mohammad Ali Bogra, Chaudhry Muhammad Ali, Hussain Shaheed Suhrawardy, Ibrahim Ismail Chundrigar, Feroz Khan Noon and others, most of whom remained in office for relatively short periods before being replaced.

Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru is famously said to have remarked, sarcastically, that he did not change his pyjamas as frequently as Pakistan changed her prime ministers.

The purpose of this brief historical overview is simply to underline that political uncertainty and instability are not recent afflictions in Pakistan; they have deep roots in our political history. Against this backdrop, when journalists and analysts interpret a particular political development as a sign that a government may be on its way out, their speculation cannot be dismissed entirely as unjustified. After all, this has been the pattern of our politics for decades.

That said, those familiar with the workings of the government insist that there is no such instability and that the reality behind the scenes is quite different from the impression being created in the media.

The question, however, remains: when will Pakistan finally enjoy political stability and a sense of certainty? When will we be rid of the recurring cycle of uncertainty and instability? When will we become capable of holding genuinely transparent elections? And when will the day come when our prime ministers are able to complete their constitutional terms?

These questions matter because the country’s economy and the future of its young generation depend heavily on political stability and continuity. Repeated changes in government do not ultimately hurt a particular political party or an individual politician; they hurt the country and its people.

The countries that have achieved sustained economic and social progress generally demonstrate political stability and policy continuity. In Pakistan, by contrast, political instability remains one of the major obstacles to development. A policy is formulated or a decision is taken by one government, only for the next government to reverse or abandon it. How can a country move forward amid such a persistent lack of continuity?

Countries that gained independence after Pakistan have moved ahead on the path of development, while we often seem to take one step forward only to stumble two steps backwards. One can only hope that those in positions of authority will sit together and seriously examine why Pakistan has failed to achieve lasting political stability. Why do the clouds of uncertainty continue to hang over the country?

Since political turbulence is under discussion, the current political campaign of Jamaat-e-Islami also merits mention. Under the leadership of its Emir, Hafiz Naeem ur Rehman, the party is currently holding protests and sit-ins against the government. The demonstrations in Peshawar, Karachi and Lahore are primarily focused on inflation and the petroleum levy. The Jamaat-e-Islami has announced that, if its demands are not accepted, it will expand its protest campaign further. It has also indicated the possibility of a shutter-down strike.

The following day, Hafiz Naeem ur Rehman held a detailed meeting with columnists and journalists at Mansoorah. I also had the opportunity to attend. He spoke at length on a range of national and political issues, including the creation of new provinces, the Azad Kashmir elections, the government’s performance, the Jamaat’s relations with the opposition and the possibility of joining a political alliance in the future.

The central theme of his argument, however, was that the government’s imposition of the petroleum levy was unjustifiable. He presented various statistics and pointed out that Pakistan has a very large number of motorcycles and small-engine cars.

Owners of large vehicles and the affluent may be less affected by expensive petrol, but the burden of the petroleum levy falls disproportionately on the middle and lower income segments of society. This, he argued, is deeply unfair.

The Jamaat-e-Islami’s stated objective, he said, is to persuade the government to abolish the levy and reduce petroleum prices so that ordinary citizens can receive some relief. He also indicated that Islamabad could be the party’s next destination in its protest campaign.

The gathering at Mansoorah provided an opportunity for some interesting and substantive political discussion.  For now, regardless of the broader political discussion, the Jamaat-e-Islami’s demand that the government reduce petroleum prices and provide relief to the public is difficult to dismiss. It is an essentially non-controversial public issue, and one that is likely to command broad support.

The fact is that inflation has severely crushed ordinary Pakistanis. Government figures themselves acknowledge that the inflationary situation has affected the popularity of the Pakistan Muslim League. A reduction in petroleum prices would certainly ease, at least to some extent, the financial burden on the public.The government, therefore, should seriously consider the Jamaat-e-Islami’s demand and take practical measures to provide much needed relief to the people.