Russia refining capacity falls about 30% after Ukrainian strikes

Russia refining capacity has dropped by about 30 percent since late October because of renewed Ukrainian drone strikes, two industry sources said.

The losses deepen Moscow’s trouble with domestic fuel shortages while it still sells diesel abroad under an export deal with US President Donald Trump.

How the strikes cut Russia refining capacity

Ukraine escalated its attacks at the end of October. A ceasefire on strikes against energy sites, which Trump announced between Kyiv and Moscow, never took effect.

In the past week, the drones disrupted operations and triggered emergencies at nine of the 35 largest Russian refineries, the sources said. That is about a quarter of the biggest plants.

The affected plants can process about 300,000 metric tons a day, or 2.2 million barrels, on paper. Russia’s total primary refining capacity sits near 930,000 tons a day.

Three major plants in central Russia are among them. The list also includes refineries in Ryazan, Yaroslavl and the Volga region, so the damage spreads across several regions. Moscow has not published its own estimate.

What it means for crude processing

Russian refineries handled about 700,000 tons of crude a day, or 5 million barrels, as October ended. The sources think actual processing could fall by up to 200,000 tons a day.

That cut equals about 1.46 million barrels a day. In other words, the damage to plants turns directly into lost throughput.

The Russia refining capacity figure is an industry estimate, not a government count. The sources put the real drop in crude runs at up to 200,000 tons a day, which is far below the 300,000 tons of nameplate capacity at the hit plants. Capacity measures what plants could process, while real output depends on repairs and supplies.

The latest attack and the political fight

The Kirishi refinery, Russia’s second biggest, caught fire on Monday after a Ukrainian drone hit it overnight. The governor of the Leningrad region said a woman died in the attack.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wrote on Tuesday, in a Russian daily, that Kyiv was ignoring Trump’s calls to halt strikes on Russian energy targets.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week that Kyiv would keep hitting targets tied to Russia’s oil sector. He called it a reply to Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy sites.

Power plants, networks, heating and water systems in Ukraine face constant attack, he said. Moscow, in his words, “refused the de-escalation steps that our partners talked about”.

Strain on Russia refining capacity

Earlier, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned that refinery strikes will hurt global diesel supplies. Rosneft has again limited fuel sales across Russia because of attacks on plants.

Meanwhile, both governments blame each other for the failed ceasefire. A gap has opened between installed capacity and actual output, and that gap strains the downstream sector.

For now, the fall in Russia refining capacity raises pressure on fuel markets inside Russia. Also, it tests how long Moscow can keep up diesel exports while it repairs damaged plants.