UN warns powerful El Niño could push global temperatures to new record in 2027

ANTALYA: A potentially exceptional El Niño event could drive global temperatures to another record high in 2027 while the worsening climate crisis is already creating a major public health emergency United Nations officials warned at the opening of COP31 on Monday.

ANTALYA: A potentially exceptional El Niño event could drive global temperatures to another record high in 2027 while the worsening climate crisis is already creating a major public health emergency United Nations officials warned at the opening of COP31 on Monday.

The 31st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) began in Antalya bringing together world leaders, scientists and climate experts for two weeks of negotiations on rising temperatures, extreme weather and urgent climate action.

On the opening day the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its State of the Climate Update 2026 warning that a powerful El Niño was developing in the Pacific Ocean and could intensify global warming and extreme weather over the coming months.

WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said greenhouse gas concentrations had reached unprecedented levels while climate records continued to be broken. She described the developing 2026-27 El Niño as unlike any event previously monitored by the organization.

“We have no time to lose,” Saulo said warning that the phenomenon could have far-reaching consequences for global temperatures.

According to the WMO report the period from 2015 to 2026 has seen the warmest years on record with the four-year period ending in 2026 expected to rank as the hottest ever recorded. Global average temperatures between January and September 2026 stood approximately 1.47 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

Saulo explained that El Niño typically has its strongest influence on global temperatures during the year following its development raising concerns that 2027 could surpass the previous temperature record set in 2024.

The report also highlighted record ocean heat for the tenth consecutive year and a new high in global mean sea levels since satellite monitoring began in 1993. Rising seas are increasing risks for an estimated 900 million people living in low-lying coastal areas.

Saulo warned that extreme weather events were becoming more intense with heatwaves tropical cyclones and heavy rainfall placing growing pressure on communities.

The human toll is also increasing. Tens of thousands of excess deaths were reported in Europe during extreme heat while Pakistan, India and large parts of Asia and North America experienced dangerous heatwaves. Flooding, drought and other climate-related disasters also affected communities across several regions.

UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell described the situation as a global public health emergency saying extreme heat, pollution and climate-related disasters were placing mounting pressure on health systems.

“The climate crisis is now a global health crisis of pandemic proportions,” Stiell said, citing an estimated 50,000 deaths across Europe during northern summer heatwaves and extreme heat exposure among hundreds of millions of people in southern Asia.

He also warned of the particular risks facing pregnant women, newborns and maternal health linking worsening climate conditions to continued fossil fuel consumption and deforestation.

Stiell urged governments to accelerate electrification and the transition to clean energy warning that continued reliance on coal, oil and gas would increase costs for households, businesses and public services.

Alan Dangour, director of Climate and Health at the Wellcome Trust said climate change was already damaging health and livelihoods worldwide. He cited research estimating that fossil fuel-related air pollution and extreme heat cause more than three million deaths annually.

Dangour added that extreme drought affected nearly 52 per cent of the world’s land for at least one month in 2025 making it the second-highest level on record. He warned that such conditions posed additional risks to agriculture, outdoor workers, food security and sanitation.

He also referred to a survey of 1,000 maternal health professionals highlighting the growing evidence of extreme heat-related risks to pregnant women and babies.

Meanwhile, Dangour announced that the Climate and Health Funders Coalition had allocated more than $225 million during its first year to projects addressing extreme heat, air pollution, climate-sensitive infectious diseases and data systems. A further $150 million had been pledged.

Despite the worsening outlook, Saulo pointed to progress in early-warning systems, noting that the number of countries reporting multi-hazard warning capabilities had risen from 56 in 2015 to 136 in 2025.

She stressed that reliable scientific observations monitoring networks and sustained investment were essential to helping countries prepare for climate-related disasters.

“We cannot afford to fly blind,” Saulo said urging governments to take urgent decisions at COP31 and strengthen global climate monitoring and early-warning capabilities.