US Midterm polls and Pakistan

By Suleman Ahmad

 The US midterm elections came as a surprise for Mr. Trump. The Democrat’s win in the midterm polls surprised President Trump and his administration. Democrats lead both the Senate and the House of Representatives now. Trump and his Republican Party lost the hold in Congress. Both houses are dominated by the Democratic Party. Now what’s up for Mr. Trump? Congress led by Democrats can impeach Mr. Trump or launch investigations against Mr. Trump and his actions; especially, they can look into the US-Iran war and the foreign agreements that involved President Trump’s family. Democrats can even block President Trump’s legislative agenda, but Trump has another power called a veto. Trump can use the veto power to override Congress. Trump shared a red cap “Veto” written on it on his social media, so it means he is ready to become Mr. Veto. The White House also shared the same red cap, signaling that a lame-duck president will now excessively use his veto power to reject every legislative agenda of Democrats, and it will be difficult for Democrats to pass the law because it requires a 2/3rd majority, which is lacking in Congress by Democrats. Trump can issue executive orders and run affairs, but the judiciary will be null and void if his executive orders violate the constitution.

Trump will remain in the Whitehouse as a president with limited power because Congress will be controlled by Democrats, but Trump has the upper hand in foreign policy and military command. The people of America rejected Trump’s Republican Party because of the US war on Iran and soaring prices of commodities, including oil and gas, due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The US public even voted against Republican candidates in states where Republican support was present. The midterm polls are a result of Trump’s deviating policies from his presidential election campaign. He won the elections on the slogan of peace and MAGA. But when he came to power, he attacked Iran under pressure from Israel and Netanyahu, as Trump was blackmailed by Netanyahu on the Epstein files and Trump is involved, so to divert attention from those shameful files, he started the war, and his peace mantra was destroyed by him. Maybe Mr. Trump will remove some high-security officials to put the blame on them for starting the Iran war to portray himself as a peacemaker. Many factors lead to Trump’s defeat, but the Iran War is the major factor because the American public doesn’t want their money to be spent on the Israeli war with Iran. The majority of commentators term these elections as the beginning of the end of Trump, but Trumpism will still remain in US politics.

Now what do the US midterm elections mean for Pakistan? US elections influence world politics, and, of course, they will have repercussions for Pakistan too. The US-Pakistan relations have remained strained over the decades. The history shows that US relations with Pakistan remain cordial when the US is stuck in some complex situations, like the Afghanistan issue or now the Iran issue. US-Pakistan relations remain personal, not institutional. How? I explained it here. When Trump’s last presidency was ending, he requested Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Imran Khan to help the US exit Afghanistan safely, and it was Mr. Khan who helped the US forces leave Afghanistan, and they were provided with every possible support for Afghanistan withdrawal. Then comes Biden, and the relationship becomes fragile. Why? Because the US doesn’t support any democratic government in Pakistan and Mr. Khan and Mr. Trump’s relations were purely personal, like now, today’s relations between the US and Pakistan are personal, the way Trump praises the political and military leadership of Pakistan. In the Biden era, there were no US interests in our region, so Biden was not interested in Pakistan, and, of course, there was a democratic government of Imran Khan here. Now the US has interests here in the region because of the Iran war, and here the regime is despotic. That’s why Trump is praising Pakistan, and when everything is over, Pakistan will be abandoned by the US again. So the relations between the US and Pakistan must be transformed from personal to institutional, based on mutual respect, not master-slave relations.

Now what do the Pakistani people think of US midterm polls? I have watched many posts on social media by ordinary Pakistani people praising the US elections, their system, and the people of America for voting against tyranny and authoritarianism and cheering the victory of Abu el-Sayed, a Muslim senator who won from Michigan. But here’s the hypocrisy of the Pakistani people who cheer for Muslim senators in the US but will not cheer when a non-Muslim senator wins in Pakistan. The media and public of Pakistan cheer for democracy and the will of the people abroad, like in the US, India and Israel, but stay silent or even become complicit in fascism at home when elections are rigged or stolen and democracy is buried through lawfare and fascist tactics. Our people have become experts in foreign relations when it comes to global politics but remain gag when it comes to local politics, and rightly so, because the state here doesn’t tolerate dissent where the state abroad can somewhat be lenient in tolerating dissent.

Democracy in the US is still present, where people can vote and oust a party or leader, but that is lacking in Pakistan, which is very unfortunate.
I think Mr. Trump has become a lame duck, but he will become more dangerous because he has nothing to lose now. Hope better sense will prevail, and the world will return to normalcy and peace if diplomacy is given a chance over war.

The writer is a China Fellow in the China Fellowship Programme at the Asian Institute of Eco Civilization Research and Development