Chichawatni by-election tests Jutt stronghold as youth movement enters race

CHICHAWATNI: The upcoming by-election in Punjab Assembly constituency PP-203 has become politically significant, with divisions emerging within the Jutt family and the entry of youth-led social movement Tehreek-e-Ehsaas adding a new dimension to the contest.

Tehreek-e-Ehsaas has been active in Chichawatni for several years. The Election Commission has recently included the movement in its list of political parties. Although its young leader is the son of a politician closely associated with the influential Rai brothers, many local residents do not consider the movement merely an extension of the Rai political group.

In the 2024 general elections, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), associated with the Rai brothers in Chichawatni, won the National Assembly and provincial assembly seats in the area. However, after the Rai brothers were disqualified in connection with the May 9 cases, the group could not contest the subsequent by-election because PTI boycotted the election as a party.

As a result, the Jutt brothers, who had lost the 2024 general elections, secured victories in the by-election with relative ease.

The political situation has changed again following the death of Punjab Assembly member Chaudhry Hanif Jutt, who represented PP-203. His death led to the announcement of another by-election, bringing competing political interests back into focus.

The Rai brothers remain unable to contest the upcoming election under the prevailing party discipline. In the previous by-election, independent candidate Falak Sher Dogar had entered the race to prevent Hanif Jutt from being elected unopposed and secured a considerable number of votes. However, he has not submitted nomination papers this time.

The Jutt group would ordinarily have been considered well-positioned to win the seat. However, an internal family dispute has complicated its electoral prospects. Asad Hanif, the son of the late Hanif Jutt, and former provincial lawmaker Chaudhry Arshad Jutt, the deceased’s younger brother, are both seeking the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) ticket for the constituency. Both are reportedly running separate campaigns.

Asad Hanif has the support of his paternal uncle, National Assembly member Chaudhry Tufail, while Chaudhry Arshad is backed by another brother and a section of the family’s political group. The division has raised questions about whether the Jutt family can maintain its traditional electoral advantage.

Against this backdrop, Tehreek-e-Ehsaas has entered the contest with its own candidate. According to local political observers, the movement’s participation has caused relatively little concern within the Jutt camp but greater anxiety among supporters of the Rai group.

The concern is that the youth-led movement could attract votes from people who have traditionally supported the Rai brothers. If that happens, Tehreek-e-Ehsaas could influence the electoral outcome even without winning the seat.

The by-election presents an important opportunity for the movement to test its political appeal. Unlike established political groups that rely on influential families, substantial financial resources and longstanding political networks, Tehreek-e-Ehsaas operates more like a youth-oriented social organisation.

A strong performance would indicate the emergence of a new political factor in Chichawatni. It could also encourage young people in other areas to explore alternative forms of political participation beyond traditional family-based politics.

However, the movement faces a difficult challenge. Established politicians have extensive experience in election campaigns, voter mobilisation and local political negotiations. Whether Tehreek-e-Ehsaas can translate its social standing into electoral support remains uncertain.

The PP-203 by-election will therefore test both the Jutt family’s ability to manage its internal divisions and the capacity of a youth-led movement to gain support in a constituency dominated by established political families. Even if Tehreek-e-Ehsaas does not win the seat, a significant vote share could establish it as a factor in future political contests in the area.