Curtailing clean power

By Faheemullah Shaikh 

Associate Professor, Department of Electrical Engineering,
Mehran UET, Jamshoro, Sindh, Pakistan.

In the wind corridor of southern Sindh, dozens of white wind turbines stand motionlessly against the sky. They are not broken, nor is the wind missing. Instead, grid managers in Islamabad have ordered them to stop turning.

Pakistan has 1,838 MW of wind power capacity across 36 commercial projects in the Gharo-Jhimpir region. Yet, despite an estimated onshore wind potential of 349 GW, these farms generated just 3,843.36 GWh of electricity in FY 2024-25. This amounted to under three percent of the country’s utility grid output, leaving the wind fleet running at a dismal average capacity factor of 23.87 percent.

This systematic turning off of clean energy exposes a growing conflict between private investors and state grid managers. When developers signed power purchase agreements, they were guaranteed legal priority dispatch under national renewable energy policies. For the 12 modern wind projects completed since 2021, developers agreed to supply power at a low baseline tariff of Rs 13.8 to Rs 14 per unit, with extra generation priced under Rs 1 per unit.

Today, these low-cost plants are regularly ordered to shut down, forcing investors into financial distress while their equipment suffers mechanical damage from repeated stopping and starting.

State grid managers argue that these shut-downs are necessary to prevent physical network failures. Power generated in Sindh cannot flow freely to central and northern cities, where three-quarters of national electricity demand is located.

Overloaded 500 kV transmission lines out of Jamshoro and Matiari cap South-to-North power transfer at 1,800 MW, far below the system’s intended 4,500 MW capability. Consequently, operators routinely turn off up to 1,750 MW of southern power to avoid line overloads. According to NEPRA’s State of Industry Report 2025, these transmission bottlenecks left 491.89 GWh of clean renewable energy completely unutilized in a single year.

Delays in completing essential connecting infrastructure have made these transmission bottlenecks worse. The 660 kV Matiari to Lahore direct current transmission line was built to transport 4,000 MW of power from south to north. However, because connecting substations in the north were not completed on time, the line operated at an average capacity factor of only 35.04 percent in FY 2024-25. While this major transmission asset sat mostly idle, electricity consumers continued paying full fixed capacity charges for its construction.

The rapid growth of citizen-led rooftop solar has added another layer of complexity to grid operations. Rising utility tariffs have encouraged households and businesses to install rooftop solar panels across the country. According to the Pakistan Electricity Review 2026 published by Renewables First, total distributed solar capacity reached 38 GW, generating roughly 51 TWh of electricity during the year.

This solar energy generated on rooftops now equals 46 percent of total utility grid sales. On March 31, 2025, daytime demand on the national grid plunged to a low of 6,106 MW, compared to the summer peak of 24,699 MW recorded on June 20. When daytime grid demand collapses, operators order wind farms to shut down to keep the main grid stable.

The financial consequences of these forced shut-downs extend far beyond the wind corridor. When grid operators turn off cheap wind farms, they often run costlier thermal plants instead. In FY 2024-25, this practice caused Rs 18.623 billion in extra operational costs, with Rs 15.607 billion caused directly by South-to-North transmission constraints.

Furthermore, state contracts require utilities to pay compensation for untaken power, known as Non-Project Missed Volume payments. In FY 2024-25, these contract penalties paid to wind producers totaled Rs 13.285 billion. Wind developers report that official compensation formulas cover only 38 percent of their actual lost generation, creating cash flow shortages that threaten foreign debt servicing.

Repeatedly stopping and starting wind turbines also inflicts physical damage on the machinery itself. Technical evaluations show that repeatedly adjusting turbine blade angles puts abnormal mechanical stress on gearboxes, drive motors, and control systems. This constant throttling leads to pitch motor failures, battery degradation, and accelerated blade wear. Turning off wind turbines not only wastes clean power in the short term, but also degrades valuable national energy assets over time.

Past attempts to address this problem have focused on speculative or impractical proposals. Suggesting that unused wind power be redirected into green hydrogen synthesis or industrial heating ignores basic project economics. Hydrogen equipment requires high capital investment and steady, round-the-clock operation to be financially viable. Relying on seasonal wind power, which drops from 522 GWh in June to 98 GWh in November, makes green hydrogen production an economic non-starter.

Instead of chasing unviable concepts, Pakistan must implement immediate grid stabilization measures. The World Bank has approved a $375.9 million financing package for Phase 1 of the BEST-PAK Grid Stability Project. This project will install specialized voltage stabilizers at three major 500 kV substations and reactors across 26 substations. This targeted investment is designed to stabilize grid voltage and unlock between 640 MW and 1,840 MW of trapped wind and renewable energy.

To complement physical grid upgrades, regulatory authorities must open the market to direct commercial transactions. Opening the central grid to competitive bilateral trading will allow large industrial factories to purchase cheap wind power directly from southern generators through transparent wheeling tariffs. Moving forward with NEPRA’s proposed 800 MW wheeling allocation, combined with a mandatory 10 percent battery storage requirement for renewable projects, will give factories access to affordable power while helping the grid absorb variable generation.

Pakistan cannot afford to leave clean wind energy trapped in the south while factories shut down due to high electricity costs. Clearing physical transmission bottlenecks, requiring battery storage, and allowing industry to buy power directly offer a practical way forward. We have solutions; we need better coordination and political support, based on consensus and the acceptance of change.

About the author: The writer has a PhD in energy economics and policy and teaches and conducts research at Mehran University of Engineering and Technology (MUET), Jamshoro. He can be reached at faheemullah.shaikh@faculty.muet.edu.pk.