Houthi $51 billion demand puts Saudi Arabia in a tough spot

A Houthi $51 billion demand and a call for recognition as Yemen’s rulers now sit at the centre of talks with Saudi Arabia, a report said.

Yemen’s Houthi movement wants the money and the political status as terms for ending hostilities with the kingdom, according to people familiar with the discussions.

How the Houthi $51 billion demand emerged

Riyadh reached out to the Houthis to ask what would end the fighting. Talks followed after Houthi forces hit Saudi oil tankers on the Red Sea and captured ground near the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

That strait is among the busiest and most important shipping lanes in the world. It links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.

Houthi leaders call the $51 billion payback for years of Saudi-led air raids and a lengthy blockade. The report said officials have floated other sums since, yet each would run to tens of billions of dollars.

They also want Riyadh to recognise them as the country’s rulers. The Houthi $51 billion demand therefore mixes money with a major political claim.

Why the Houthi $51 billion demand is hard for Riyadh

Recognition would give legitimacy to a movement that the kingdom has fought for years. The Houthis control large parts of Yemen, and recognition would also weaken the internationally recognised government that Riyadh backs.

Riyadh would then face an adversary aligned with Iran along its entire southern border. Saudi officials fear that giving in could invite more attacks and more demands for money.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman prefers to wait on broad negotiations until gains on the battlefield strengthen the kingdom’s hand. He also fears that sending more troops into Yemen would bring heavy losses and public anger.

Saudi forces have already suffered dozens of casualties, the report said, which officials have not made public.

Little help from partners

The kingdom has limited backing. The United Arab Emirates has pulled out of the campaign against the Houthis, and the United States has declined to take part directly.

Pakistan has denied reports that it would join offensive operations inside Yemen, the report added.

Meanwhile, recent Houthi advances have pushed the group nearer to Aden, the interim seat of the internationally recognised government. The offensive began in September against the Saudi-backed side.

Houthi attacks on the kingdom’s land and facilities add to the pressure on Riyadh. An earlier report said Iranian help, including intelligence and targeting assistance, let the group carry out more advanced strikes.

What happens next

No final deal has emerged, and the reported figures remain part of the negotiations. Saudi Arabia has not accepted any of the terms.

For now, the Houthi $51 billion demand shows how far apart the sides are. Any agreement would involve more than money, because it would raise questions about the group’s political status, the future of Yemen’s government and security on Saudi Arabia’s southern border.

Also, the Houthi $51 billion demand lands as regional powers press for de-escalation across the Gulf. Riyadh must weigh the cost of a deal against the cost of a longer war.