India crude imports reach record as Gulf supply recovers

India crude imports reached a record of about 5.6 million barrels per day last month, with West Asia and Russia both supplying more.

An energy intelligence firm gave the figure, and its lead analyst Nikhil Dubey explained the mix of supplies.

Where India crude imports came from

Of the total, about 2.3 million barrels per day came from West Asia. Russian cargoes held steady near 2 million.

Gulf flows recovered because more oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz. Ship-to-ship transfers helped lift traffic during September and October. That gave Indian refiners more choice.

Why India crude imports may shift away from Russia

Meanwhile, producers in the Gulf now quote competitive delivered prices as they try to win back Indian business. That may make their oil more appealing for refiners in the months ahead.

However, freight costs matter too. Dubey said Russian flows could soften in November and December because attacks in the Black Sea push freight rates higher. That would make Russian barrels less attractive once transport costs count.

“The situation remains volatile,” he warned. However, any new disruption to Hormuz flows could send refiners back to Russian oil, even at higher freight costs.

A waiver that eases buyers’ worries

India crude imports could also benefit from a waiver. Dubey pointed to an October 16 waiver under the Graham Act. The waiver may calm some Indian buyers who worry about the risks of buying Russian oil, and it widens their sourcing options.

India crude imports and energy security

Domestic oil marketing companies such as IOCL, BPCL and HPCL feel freight costs. Higher delivered costs can pressure their refining profits. India imports nearly 90 percent of the crude oil it needs. The availability, transport cost and final landed price of each grade therefore shape purchase decisions.

Also, the choice between Russian and West Asian crude is likely to stay driven by commercial factors and supply security, the report said. Such factors shape how India crude imports split between suppliers.

How Russia became a major supplier

India leaned far more on Russian crude once Moscow invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Western states responded with sanctions, among them a European Union ban on seaborne Russian oil and a price cap from the G7.

As European buyers cut purchases of Russian oil, Indian refiners stepped in and took more of it. Russian barrels became a key part of India’s supply as a result.

What the record means

A separate estimate had put October arrivals at a lower 5.4 million barrels per day. That estimate said Russian arrivals stood at 1.97 million, down from a July peak of 2.82 million, as freight costs ate into Russia’s price discount. It also said imports from the Atlantic Basin doubled from the month before to 1.2 million barrels per day, with Angola and Venezuela gaining ground.

For now, India crude imports depend on the Gulf routes staying open and on the cost of shipping from Russia, and the next two months will test both.