Israeli elections: the government will change, but the policy will not.

The elections in Israel are taking place at a time when the country is deeply divided. The central opposition bloc holds an advantage over the ruling coalition, a fact attributed to 500,000 young voters who, having registered, are set to cast their ballots for the first time. There are also reports that approximately 70,000 Israelis are traveling to Israel from abroad solely to cast their votes. On Saturday night, a large number of opposition voters gathered in the central square of Jerusalem, and all the participants were demanding a change in the Netanyahu government. The participants stated that they want to establish peace and eradicate corruption; furthermore, they expressed a desire to oust religious extremists from power. This election is also being contested with the help of modern tools and technology. AI-generated videos are circulating as well, and they are receiving a great deal of attention. Furthermore, a new face has emerged in these elections. Gadi Eizenkot is the figure expected to challenge Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving Prime Minister. He is up against a Netanyahu who delivers aggressive speeches and has very shrewdly co-opted the media, utilizing it for his own election campaign. Eisenkot is a former Chief of Staff; he has ancestral ties to Morocco and is also a newcomer to the political arena. He is known for his calm temperament and his approach of steering clear of conflicts. Some have even dubbed him a “non-politician.” Yet, he and his moderate party, Yesh Atid, have consistently outperformed Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party in recent polls. The latest survey was published on Friday, in accordance with Israeli election law. Israeli politics is less about a single party gaining power and more an art of coalition-building; however, as the projected outcome appears extremely close, the rising popularity of Eisenkot has further intensified the contest. Many Israeli Jews consider these elections decisive for the future of their country. Last week, Eisenkot also visited a community center for Ethiopian Jews in the city of Ramallah. He entered the center accompanied by his advisors and security personnel, while avoiding the cameras. He delivered an address there; for those present, Eisenkot is an excellent leader, as he possesses the quality of listening to people with patience and is regarded as someone who feels empathy for everyone. A major reason for Eisenkot’s popularity lies in his personality and public image. He is a soft-spoken former military officer whose son was killed in the Gaza war. He presents himself as one of the ordinary people, rather than as a member of Israel’s wealthy urban elite. This month, his Moroccan background made election headlines when a speaker supporting Netanyahu used a racially offensive term for Eisenkot during a TV debate, calling him a Moroccan “monkey.” Speaking from a community center in Ramla, Eisenkot said that these elections are about many issues. These are about security, the economy, and education. But fundamentally, they are about the identity of the Israeli state, and about the kind of Israel we wish to see. A Jewish state, a democratic state—a state that is liberal, tolerant, and based on equality. These ideas appeal to the supporters of the opposition. He stated that Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is a threat to Israeli democracy. He also pointed to his efforts to limit the powers of the judicial system and his refusal to establish a state commission to investigate the attacks of October 7, 2023. Netanyahu maintains that the country’s Supreme Court will be biased against him. Together with other opposition leaders, Eisenkot sought to steer voters away from Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party and has promised a state-level inquiry—a move supported by more than 70 percent of Jewish Israelis, according to a recent survey. He has also pledged to enforce court rulings regarding the inclusion of ultra-Orthodox Jews in mandatory military service—a move that is popular among both right-wing voters and the opposition. In response, Benjamin Netanyahu has launched a campaign centered on Israel’s security, with the core slogan: “No one will lay down their arms.” This extremist slogan of the Jews is also gaining traction, which makes it clear that Jews are more inclined to support Jewish extremism. He repeatedly characterized his rivals as having a weak stance on security issues and played upon the fears of some right-wing voters that opposition parties—led by Jews—might form an alliance with Israel’s Arab parties to secure a majority, a move that could compromise national security. Approximately one-fifth of Israel’s population consists of Arabs, many of whom identify themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel. These are the first elections to take place following the October 7 attacks—an event that represented Israel’s worst failure from a security perspective—yet, three years later, its Prime Minister is once again running for re-election, claiming that he alone can keep Israel safe. In an underground café in Jerusalem, some of Netanyahu’s ardent supporters claim that if the army had woken them up in time, this would not have happened. A certain degree of responsibility lies with them, but after October 7, they transformed the entire Middle East. Netanyahu has been consistently conveying the message that, since October 7, Israel’s wars against Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran have reduced the threats to the country’s existence. Netanyahu’s supporters say that he should be re-elected so that he can complete this task. In their view, Netanyahu is one of the best leaders in the world. Most people around the world like and respect him because he is a strong man and his views are correct. Netanyahu’s supporters say that Gaza should have been completely destroyed; they state that their military has completely razed the neighborhoods of Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun. According to surveys by Israeli media, less than 10 percent of Israelis have yet to decide which party they will vote for. In Netanyahu’s coalition, National Security Minister Ben-Gvir is using social media to reach voters. According to a survey conducted for a major Israeli newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth, on October 9, more than 16 percent of first-time voters in Israel might cast their ballots for far-right parties like those associated with Ben-Gvir. All key opposition leaders have expressed support for Israeli settlement activity in the occupied West Bank, in one form or another. This has expanded significantly during the tenure of the current government and is illegal under international law. No one has openly supported the establishment of a full-fledged Palestinian state—something Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to prevent. Eisenkot has spoken of creating conditions for ‘autonomy’ under Israeli control. On one hand, Benjamin Netanyahu is using the pretext of new threats from Iran to warn his voters that if he fails to return to power, Iran will wipe Israel off the map; on the other, the opposition is raising concerns about potential obstacles to the electoral process. In this context, the internal political uncertainty could pose a major challenge for Israel. However, the reality on the ground is that regardless of which party comes to power in Israel, it will prioritize Israel’s interests, pursue further settlement expansion, and make life increasingly difficult for the Palestinians. Therefore, it would be futile to expect a two-state solution from any of these parties.