Italy’s population set to shrink by nearly 4 million by 2050, statistics agency warns

Italy’s population will fall by close to 4 million people by 2050, according to new projections from national statistics bureau ISTAT, a demographic shift the agency warned will strain the sustainability of the country’s economy and welfare system as the share of elderly residents continues to climb.

ISTAT’s latest projections, which extend out to 2080, show Italy’s resident population declining to 55 million by 2050, down from 58.9 million at the start of 2025. The agency projects the population will fall further still, reaching 45.8 million by 2080.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni pledged when she took office in 2022 to make raising the country’s birth rate a central government priority, but the effort has yielded limited results so far. Births in Italy have declined steadily since 2008 and fell to roughly 355,000 last year, the lowest annual figure recorded since the country’s unification in 1861. Deaths, meanwhile, have continued rising as the population ages.

ISTAT projects that annual births will hold roughly steady through 2030 before declining further to around 335,000 by 2050. Deaths are expected to climb from about 652,000 last year to a peak of 869,000 in 2058, as Italy’s large post war baby boom generation reaches advanced old age.

The proportion of Italians aged 65 or older is projected to rise sharply, climbing to 34.5 percent by 2050 from 24.7 percent in 2025. At the same time, the share of the population considered working age, defined as those between 15 and 64 years old, is expected to fall to 55.3 percent from 63.4 percent over the same period.

ISTAT said the combination of a shrinking workforce and a growing number of pensioners will present new challenges to the country’s broader economic system and its welfare infrastructure, though the agency stopped short of detailing specific policy responses.

The demographic decline is expected to hit different parts of the country unevenly. Southern Italy, already the poorer region economically, is forecast to experience the steepest population losses, with its population projected to fall from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million by 2050. Central and northern regions are expected to see comparatively smaller declines over the same period, reflecting long standing patterns of internal migration and differing regional birth rates.

Italy’s demographic trajectory mirrors a broader trend playing out across much of Europe, where several countries have struggled for years to reverse falling birth rates despite various government incentives aimed at encouraging larger families. The scale of Italy’s projected decline, however, stands out even within that wider European pattern, and the shrinking ratio of working age residents to retirees is likely to intensify pressure on the country’s pension system and public healthcare services in the coming decades, unless birth rates rise, immigration increases significantly, or both trends occur simultaneously.