New Zealand election result: National, Labour near level

The New Zealand election result looked tight on Saturday night, with National and Labour each close to 30 percent of the party vote.

Polling stations opened at 9 a.m. and closed at 7 p.m. Counting began straight after, and early results showed a race that could take weeks to settle.

What the New Zealand election result shows so far

With 95 percent of voting places counted, National held 29.31 percent of the party vote and Labour held 29.19 percent. The Greens had 13.30 percent, ACT 10.99 percent and NZ First 9.81 percent. Te Pāti Māori had 0.57 percent.

Earlier, with only 5.7 percent counted, National led Labour by 31.58 percent to 28.37 percent. That lead shrank as more votes came in.

The National, ACT and NZ First bloc held a majority by two seats at the 95 percent mark. Labour would need to win a few marginal electorates to cut into National’s overhang, one expert said.

Why the New Zealand election result may take weeks

The Electoral Commission expects final results by November 27. Special votes, which include overseas ballots and votes cast outside a voter’s own electorate, will not enter the count until then.

Past elections show that special votes lean left, so right-leaning parties tend to slip once the count includes them. A political scientist at Victoria University of Wellington, Tom Jamieson, said a new government may not form before Christmas.

He said National looked better placed to form a government for now. However, he added that National may lose senior ministers.

Luxon and the kingmaker

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon told supporters in Auckland that New Zealand had voted for “an MMP special”. He said National had once more become the biggest party, and he saw a route to a new government.

Luxon said parties will need to negotiate and compromise, just as the system’s designers intended. Ministers will stay in their portfolios while the commission finishes the count.

The Opportunity party looked set to enter parliament for the first time, and it could play kingmaker. It polled 5.6 percent early on, just above the 5 percent threshold.

When Luxon congratulated Opportunity, a supporter shouted “no!”. Luxon stopped the heckle and said, “That’s not the Kiwi way.”

How the system works

In 1996 the country adopted a mixed-member proportional model. Each voter has two ballots, a party ballot and a candidate ballot.

Parliament has 120 seats, with 71 from electorates and 49 from party lists. A party or bloc needs a majority of seats to govern, and the House adds extra seats when overhang appears.

Only once since 1996 has one party won an outright majority. Labour did it in 2020, with 65 of 120 seats.

The vote pits National against the centre-left Labour Party, with the Greens, ACT, NZ First and Te Pāti Māori also in the field. A newcomer, the Free Palestine Party, is also running. Its leader, Paul Hopkinson, said he wants Palestine to feature prominently in the campaign.

For now, the New Zealand election result offers both major parties only a narrow path. Also, coalition talks will start only after the official count, so the New Zealand election result may stay unsettled until late November.