Pakistan considers creating up to 30 administrative units

Pakistan is facing renewed debate over the size of its provinces and the need to restructure its administrative system. The discussion comes as the country’s population continues to grow. Experts believe the existing provincial structure is struggling to meet the needs of increasingly large and diverse populations. They argue that administrative reforms could improve governance, public service delivery and accountability.

A recent analysis by the World Economic Forum has highlighted the challenges countries face when population growth outpaces institutional capacity. Pakistan is among the countries confronting this issue. Its population could reach 265 million by 2030. This growth is expected to place further pressure on public services, infrastructure, education, healthcare and government resources.

The analysis points to the importance of aligning administrative boundaries with demographic and economic realities. Government structures determine how public funds are distributed, how infrastructure projects are planned and how authorities respond to public needs. When administrative units become too large, decision-making can move further away from the people affected by government policies.

Pakistan’s provincial structure presents a major challenge in this regard. Provincial governments handle important responsibilities, but their policies must serve districts with widely different populations and development needs. Lahore district has around 13 million residents, while Harnai district in Balochistan has approximately 128,000 people. This difference illustrates the difficulty of applying similar administrative approaches to areas with vastly different circumstances.

Pakistan has introduced significant constitutional and financial reforms over the years. The 18th Constitutional Amendment transferred several important responsibilities to the provinces. These included major areas of public service delivery, such as health and education. The 7th National Finance Commission Award also increased the provinces’ share of federal tax revenues from 47.5 per cent to 57.5 per cent.

However, these reforms have not fully addressed the distance between provincial decision-makers and local communities. Many districts continue to face difficulties in accessing effective public services. Limited administrative capacity and uneven development have also affected government performance.

Education remains one of the areas where these challenges are visible. The Planning Commission’s District Education Performance Index assessed 134 districts. None achieved the highest performance category. The findings highlight persistent weaknesses in educational outcomes and raise questions about the effectiveness of existing administrative and financial arrangements.

Several countries have changed their administrative structures to improve governance. Nigeria expanded its system from three regions to 36 states by 1996. Indonesia increased its number of provinces from 27 to 38. Kenya introduced a different model in 2013 by replacing its eight provinces with 47 elected county governments.

Kenya’s system also provides local governments with a formula-based share of national revenue. The distribution takes factors such as population and poverty into account. These arrangements are intended to make public spending more responsive to local needs.

Pakistan’s debate over administrative restructuring includes several possible models. One proposal suggests dividing each of the four existing provinces into four units. This would create 16 first-tier administrative governments. Under this arrangement, the average population per unit would fall from around 60 million to approximately 15 million.

Another proposal involves establishing between 23 and 25 units. Their boundaries could be determined by population balance, geographical conditions and administrative requirements. A more extensive model would build on existing divisions to create more than 30 units. This approach could bring government offices and political authority closer to local communities.

Each model has potential advantages and disadvantages. Creating fewer, larger units could make legislation, financial planning and administration easier. However, larger populations could continue to place pressure on public institutions. A greater number of units could improve local representation and make it easier for citizens to approach government authorities.

At the same time, establishing additional administrative governments would involve substantial costs. New institutions would require offices, staff, infrastructure and effective management systems. The government would also need to determine how assets, employees, public debt and existing responsibilities would be distributed among the new units.

Experts caution that changing boundaries alone would not solve Pakistan’s governance problems. Smaller administrative units could face the same difficulties if they lacked sufficient funds, trained personnel and effective institutions. Clear responsibilities would also be essential to prevent disputes between different levels of government.

The experience of other countries shows that decentralisation requires more than dividing territory. Local administrations need reliable financial resources and the authority to make decisions. Without these arrangements, smaller units could remain dependent on central governments and struggle to deliver essential services.

Fiscal reform is therefore an important part of the debate. Provincial governments collected Rs983 billion in taxes during the 2024–25 financial year. This amounted to less than 0.9 per cent of Pakistan’s gross domestic product. The figures highlight the limited contribution of provincial taxation to the overall economy.

Agricultural taxation is another area of concern. Agriculture accounts for around 24 per cent of Pakistan’s value added, but tax collection from agricultural income has historically remained low. The International Monetary Fund has estimated the sector’s effective tax rate at just 0.3 per cent.

Provincial tax authorities face several obstacles. These include weak enforcement, limited administrative capacity and inadequate access to reliable information. Improving tax collection could help provincial and local governments finance development projects and provide better public services.

Any plan to create additional administrative units would therefore need a clear financial framework. The distribution of federal revenues, provincial taxation powers and responsibilities for public services would have to be reviewed together. Each unit would require predictable funding to meet its obligations.

The debate also raises questions about political representation and constitutional arrangements. Any major restructuring would require careful planning and agreement on administrative boundaries, institutional responsibilities and resource distribution. The transition would need to ensure that essential public services continue without disruption.

Pakistan’s growing population is placing increasing demands on its existing institutions. The challenge is to ensure that government structures can respond to these demands effectively. Administrative reform could offer an opportunity to improve public access to decision-makers, but its success would depend on how the new system is designed and funded.