Pakistan cotton production may beat expectations during 2026-27 cotton year

Pakistan’s cotton production outlook has improved with favorable weather conditions and unexpectedly higher arrivals in major cotton-growing areas raising hopes that the country’s cotton production in 2026-27 could exceed earlier expectations.

KARACHI: Pakistan’s cotton production outlook has improved with favorable weather conditions and unexpectedly higher arrivals in major cotton-growing areas raising hopes that the country’s cotton production in 2026-27 could exceed earlier expectations.

The improved crop outlook has also affected local cotton markets where cotton prices have once again come under pressure. According to industry officials, cotton prices declined by around Rs300 to Rs400 per maund following increased arrivals in major cotton zones.

Cotton prices in Punjab have fallen to around Rs18,800 per maund while prices in Sindh have dropped to approximately Rs18,600 per maund.

Chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum Ehsan-ul-Haq said international cotton markets had recently experienced strong gains, pushing local cotton prices up by Rs500 to Rs700 per maund earlier in the week. However, increased arrivals from local cotton-producing areas subsequently reversed the trend.

He said the weather has played an important role in improving the condition of the cotton crop. A regional wind known as “Dakhan,” which has been blowing from the sea toward mountainous areas and from the south toward the north, has reportedly had a positive impact on cotton fields.

According to the industry representative the weather conditions have helped reduce humidity in cotton fields and significantly lowered pest and bollworm attacks. Better plant growth has also improved both the quantity and quality of cotton.

If dry weather continues and the favorable winds persist, Pakistan could have a better supply of quality cotton this year compared with recent years. This could potentially reduce the country’s dependence on imported cotton.

However, the industry faces longer-term challenges. The expansion of sugarcane cultivation in traditional cotton-growing regions is raising concerns about the future of cotton production.

According to industry observers, the establishment of new sugar mills and financing provided to farmers for sugarcane cultivation could encourage growers to shift away from cotton.

Such a trend could reduce Pakistan’s cotton-growing area in coming years and increase dependence on imports not only for cotton but also for edible oils.

Meanwhile, cotton prices in the domestic market are expected to remain sensitive to international market trends and the pace of local crop arrivals in the coming weeks.

The Pakistan cotton production 2026-27 outlook therefore remains dependent on weather conditions, crop arrivals, market prices and farmers’ decisions regarding cotton and competing crops such as sugarcane.